Try the model
DUKE

Duke 27 at Wake Forest 39

WAKE
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:27 · Quentin Harris run for 15 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 180Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense+23.2Garbage-time factor+5.9Score differential+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.4Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:39: Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 62 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +11.5 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:55: Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +18.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q4 9:47: Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +12.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:34: Zach Murphy kickoff for 63 yds , Damond Philyaw-Johnson return for 98 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +30.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 8:24: Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WAKE win probability +30.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 11DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 25, tied
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:35WAKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 30, tied
    Close callWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:46DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:51WAKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:44DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:35WAKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%−0.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    64.6%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:18WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:15DUKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 12, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:14DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 26, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:35WAKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:36DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:39WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.7%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:02DUKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−7.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:02WAKE 4th & 23 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−2.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:10WAKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 25, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.8%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−7.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:47WAKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 7, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−1.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−18.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:24DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 5
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:14WAKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.0%−6.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−8.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:27DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:27DUKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 43, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    28% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 8:14WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:39WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:55DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:24WAKE Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:27WAKE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
70.9%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
70.9%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+7
70.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 7 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
70.9%
Austin Parker punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
70.7%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+9
70.8%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
70.8%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
70.8%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+9
70.8%
Jamie Newman run for 9 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.9%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+3
70.9%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
70.8%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 7
OPP 30
0
70.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
69.9%
Jalon Calhoun run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
69.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
70.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 39
-13
69.9%
Team run for a loss of 13 yards to the Duke 26 Team fumbled, recovered by WFrst Chase JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:4871% → 70%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
70.5%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-1
70.5%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 8
OPP 24
-9
70.3%
Jamie Newman sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 17
OPP 33
0
69.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
69.5%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
69.5%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:44
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+6
69.7%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+2
69.9%
Austin Parker punt for 57 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:4869% → 71%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
69.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the WFrst 17Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
69.4%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 5:23
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+13
69.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 13 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
69.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
70.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
70.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
70.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
70.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
71.1%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+1
71.1%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+5
70.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
70.7%
Nick Sciba 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2467% → 66%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
66.5%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
66.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+3
65.9%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
65.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 32 yds, downed at the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · 26 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
64.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the WFrst 35 Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Coby Davis, recovered by WFrst Amari HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
66.0%
Jamie Newman sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
65.7%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
65.1%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+21
64.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 40 yds , Myles Hudzick returns for 21 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:5037% → 41%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
50
+5
63.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+33
63.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 33 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
62.8%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
62.8%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
63.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+30
58.8%
AJ Reed 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:0161% → 70%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
60.7%
Jamie Newman run for 12 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
62.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+3
62.4%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
62.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 7 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
62.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Koby QuansahSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
62.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+42
70.0%
Jamie Newman run for 42 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
65.9%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-11
65.7%
Harris,Q. screen pass incomplete to Jackson,D., dropped pass, QB hurry by Basham, C, PENALTY DU holding (McIntyre,M.) 11 yards to the DU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 17
OWN 10
+5
66.2%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+11
66.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 11 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 8:14
4TH & 1
OWN 26
+1
66.6%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:4668% → 71%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
68.1%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+11
68.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 11 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+36
68.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 36 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
71.1%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+6
70.2%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+4
71.0%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+5
70.3%
Jamie Newman run for 5 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
71.1%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+2
71.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 6:21
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
70.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall Hinton, broken up by Dylan SingletonSimilar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+34
70.9%
Nick Sciba 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5929% → 27%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.8%
Quentin Harris sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
71.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 3 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
71.6%
Quentin Harris sacked by Ja'Sir Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 19 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by Duke Noah Gray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
72.6%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds, downed at the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:5070% → 69%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
69.5%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
69.1%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
68.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 24Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+9
68.2%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
68.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 52 yds, downed at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
72.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 15 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
72.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2168% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.4%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
69.8%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
68.8%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
80.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 62 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 4:3721% → 26%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
79.0%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
78.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 14 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
77.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
78.2%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 7
50
+10
78.2%
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
77.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 2 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+9
77.5%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
76.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
76.6%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 9
OPP 28
-5
77.7%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Zach Baker) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 14
OPP 33
+8
78.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
74.5%
AJ Reed 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 15 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
78.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
78.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 7 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
78.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 9 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
80.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+4
80.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
80.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Steven ClaudeSimilar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.1%
Walker, K rush draw play for 20 yards to the DU17 (Carter,M.), PENALTY WF holding (Herron, J) 10 yards to the DU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 20
OPP 47
0
79.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 20
OPP 47
-3
77.9%
Jamie Newman sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 23
50
0
76.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
76.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+9
76.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+17
75.8%
Quentin Harris run for 17 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
75.0%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Ja'Sir Taylor return for no gain to the WFrst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 3:2880% → 85%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+34
79.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 34 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
82.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 42
-5
81.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Loic Ngassam Nya) to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+4
81.0%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+13
80.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Waydale Jones for 13 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
82.3%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+6
82.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
81.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Waydale Jones, broken up by Trevon McSwainSimilar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+44
84.9%
Nick Sciba 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:1517% → 39%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
83.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 17 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+22
81.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 22 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
79.5%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+23
61.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:0869% → 84%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
68.6%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
69.7%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+7
67.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 7 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
70.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 19 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
72.3%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+25
72.2%
Jamie Newman run for 25 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
73.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Duke 12Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+7
73.3%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 5
-2
71.7%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 7Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 4
OPP 7
+25
84.2%
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1052% → 83%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.1%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+57
52.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 57 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
82.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.2%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
70.7%
Jalon Calhoun run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
72.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah Gray, broken up by Nasir GreerSimilar
Q4 8:24
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
73.7%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 2 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:4783% → 97%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-1
83.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 21Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 11
OWN 21
0
82.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 11
OWN 21
+36
81.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 36 yds to the WAKEFOREST 43 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
86.1%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+1
86.0%
Jamie Newman run for 1 yd to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+6
85.5%
Kendall Hinton run for 6 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+11
84.1%
Cade Carney run for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
86.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
96.5%
Cade Carney run for 18 yds for a TD (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29DOWNS
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
95.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
94.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+5
94.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 47
-6
94.7%
Quentin Harris sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 44 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by Duke Casey Holman , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+15
95.1%
Quentin Harris run for 15 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
94.6%
Quentin Harris sacked by Tyler Williams and Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
94.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake Bobo, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
94.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-5
95.5%
Quentin Harris sacked by Ja'Cquez Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
97.4%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
97.4%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:34
Zach Murphy kickoff for 63 yds , Damond Philyaw-Johnson return for 98 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)
-30.9
TD · Q4 8:24
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD WAKE FOREST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 8 (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+30.2
TD · Q4 14:55
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 23 yds for a TD (AJ Reed KICK)
-18.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com