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BC

Boston College 7 at Notre Dame 40

ND
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Notre Dame Stadium
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Win probability · ND
modelND aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playND scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.4ND 91.4%Jonathan Doerer 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 7 - HOME 19 · Q3 7:03
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:03 · Jonathan Doerer 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+19.0Home team on offense+15.3Score differential+5.5Garbage-time factor+6.6Blowout margin−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:56: Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +5.1 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:48: Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +6.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +4.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:44: Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:44: Braden Lenzy run for 61 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +3.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ND made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 11:11ND 4th & 9 at BC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:00BC 4th & 14 at BC 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:38ND 4th & 20 at BC 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37BC 4th & 5 at BC 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52ND 4th & 8 at BC 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:33ND 4th & 2 at BC 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    78.8%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:18BC 4th & 18 at BC 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−1.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:04BC 4th & 3 at BC 32, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:17ND 4th & 10 at BC 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:01BC 4th & 12 at BC 13, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:03ND 4th & 3 at BC 19, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%−0.5
    77% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:55BC 4th & 10 at BC 36, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:44BC 4th & 10 at BC 35, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:20ND 4th & 5 at ND 32, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:57BC 4th & 4 at BC 44, down 33
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:33ND 4th & 4 at BC 4, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:18BC 4th & 11 at BC 2, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:01ND 4th & 3 at ND 44, up 33
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ND made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 7:56BC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:48ND Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:44ND Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:44ND Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:31ND Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:3492% → 91%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+21
91.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 21 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
91.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Tony Jones Jr. for 6 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q1 13:54
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
91.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
91.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+13
91.2%
Ian Book run for 13 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
91.1%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 35Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+1
91.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 14
OPP 34
0
90.9%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+5
90.8%
Ian Book run for 5 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 11:11
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
90.7%
Jonathan Doerer 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:029% → 9%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.7%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
90.6%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Alohi Gilman for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+9
90.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 37 yds , Chris Finke returns for 9 yds to the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 1 yds · 3:1691% → 89%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
90.6%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
90.5%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Tommy TrembleSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+7
90.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 7 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
90.5%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 43Similar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 15
OPP 43
-10
90.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NDame 47Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+2
90.1%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 23
OWN 49
-8
89.9%
Ian Book sacked by Tanner Karafa for a loss of 8 yards to the NDame 41Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 31
OWN 41
+11
89.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 11 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 20
OPP 48
0
89.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4910% → 11%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
89.6%
AJ Dillon run for 15 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-4
89.4%
Zay Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 21Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+7
89.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 7 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
89.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 44 yds, downed at the NDame 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:2489% → 89%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
88.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 27Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+26
88.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 26 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
89.1%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+8
89.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 8 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
88.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
88.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 27Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+1
88.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
88.5%
Ian Book run for 13 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
88.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 4 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 9
-2
88.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 11Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
87.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
88.8%
Jonathan Doerer 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
17 plays · 84 yds · 6:4612% → 20%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
88.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
88.3%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
88.1%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
88.0%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
87.6%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
87.6%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
87.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 27Similar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+14
87.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for 14 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
86.8%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 11:11
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
86.6%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
86.4%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-1
86.1%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+9
86.0%
Dennis Grosel run for 9 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.0%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
85.0%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:0782% → 88%
Q2 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
82.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 20Similar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
82.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 14 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 7:12
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
82.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
82.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 4
50
+8
83.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 8 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.8%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
82.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
82.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 7 yds to the BC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
82.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 7 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
81.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+6
80.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds to the BC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+12
81.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 12 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 1:1415% → 15%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
85.3%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
85.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+24
85.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to David Bailey for 1 yd to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+1
83.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the NDame 48Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-10
83.4%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 42 Dennis Grosel fumbled, recovered by BC Alec Lindstrom , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 18
OWN 42
+9
85.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds , Chris Finke returns for 9 yds to the NDame 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 56 yds · 1:1086% → 89%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
85.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 5 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
85.8%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+18
85.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 18 yds to the NDame 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
86.8%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+11
87.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 11 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
87.2%
Ian Book run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+15
85.0%
Book, Ian pass incomplete to Claypool, Chase, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+45
89.4%
Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5113% → 12%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.5%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
87.3%
Dennis Grosel run for 5 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q3 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
87.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Jake BurtSimilar
Q3 14:04
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
87.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 48 yds, downed at the NDame 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 3:4188% → 88%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
88.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 12 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
88.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 3 yds to the NDame 35Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-1
88.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+10
87.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 10 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
89.2%
Ian Book run for 15 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
89.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 42Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+1
88.5%
Ian Book run for 1 yd to the BC 41Similar
Q3 10:17
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
88.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:0913% → 12%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 15Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-2
87.6%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Adetokunbo Ogundeji for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 13Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
88.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
88.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 14FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5489% → 91%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
89.3%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+14
88.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 14 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
89.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 8 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-1
89.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
89.0%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q3 7:03
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+37
91.4%
Jonathan Doerer 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FUMBLE
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:069% → 9%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
91.1%
Travis Levy run for 2 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+7
91.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 7 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
90.7%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
90.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 11 yds to the BC 40 Dennis Grosel fumbled, recovered by NDame Drew WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 16TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:4692% → 97%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
92.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 7 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
92.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Cole KmetSimilar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
92.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 6 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
92.6%
Ian Book run for 8 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+8
92.9%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
97.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Cole Kmet for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
95.7%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
95.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 36Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 11
OWN 36
0
96.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Ethon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+21
96.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds , Chris Finke returns for 21 yds to the NDame 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
99.5%
Braden Lenzy run for 61 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
99.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q3 0:51
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+8
99.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 8 yds to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
99.7%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Khalid Kareem for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+3
99.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 3 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds , Chris Finke returns for 8 yds to the NDame 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
C'Bo Flemister run for 3 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, downed at the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:500% → 0%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 38Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-9
99.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 16
OWN 29
+27
99.8%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for 27 yds to the BC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:28100% → 100%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
99.7%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 6 yds to the BC 6Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 4
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Lawrence Keys IIISimilar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
99.9%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+4
99.9%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
David Bailey run for no gain to the BC 38Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Dennis Grosel run for 4 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 2 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 8:57
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BC 49Similar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 15
OPP 49
-5
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 14 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 8:19
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for no gain to the BC 40Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+10
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to George Takacs for 10 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+27
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 27 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the BC 2Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 3Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
99.9%
Jahmir Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 4Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds to the BC 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:530% → 0%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
100.0%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 4Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 9
OWN 4
-2
100.0%
Travis Levy run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 2Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 11
OWN 2
0
100.0%
Matt Valecce pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 11
OWN 2
+6
100.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 53 yds , Lawrence Keys III returns for 6 yds to the NDame 8 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Illegal Block (14 Yards) to the NDame 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NDame 32Similar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+12
99.9%
Mick Assaf run for 12 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-1
100.0%
Mick Assaf run for a loss of 1 yard to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
100.0%
Nolan Henry run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 1:01
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Andrew Strader at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
100.0%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:48
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 7:56
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-5.1
FG · Q2 0:01
Jonathan Doerer 45 yd FG GOOD
+4.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com