2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreVT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:09 · Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:49: Keshawn King run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +3.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:09: Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +7.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:52: James Graham pass intercepted for a TD Caleb Farley return for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +3.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:16: Brian Johnson 22 yd FG GOOD — VT win probability +4.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 11:48: Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the GTech 18 — VT win probability +2.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 12VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 15:00GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, tiedClose callPunted · 35.9% before the snapGo for it36.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 13:18VT 4th & 3 at VT 37, tiedClose callPunted · 63.4% before the snapGo for it63.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:27GT 4th & 9 at GT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snapGo for it37.1%−0.131% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.2%average punt
- Q1 7:45GT 4th & 3 at GT 35, down 7Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snapGo for it36.0%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:49GT 4th & 5 at GT 30, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it31.3%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q2 12:09VT 4th & 1 at GT 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.5%67% to convertField goal69.2%−2.392% to makePunt63.4%−8.2average punt
- Q2 10:32GT 4th & 18 at GT 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it19.0%−1.412% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.5%average punt
- Q2 8:13VT 4th & 9 at GT 38, up 21Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.6%32% to convertField goal82.4%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call82.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 5:52GT 4th & 16 at GT 19, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snapGo for it10.6%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q2 1:16VT 4th & 4 at GT 4, up 28Close callKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call91.7%−<0.193% to makePunt91.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:27GT 4th & 1 at GT 28, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−<0.171% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%average punt
- Q3 14:58VT 4th & 15 at VT 46, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q3 10:05GT 4th & 10 at GT 22, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q3 8:07VT 4th & 6 at midfield, up 38Close callPunted · 97.6% before the snapGo for it97.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:12GT 4th & 1 at GT 29, down 38Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:48GT 4th & 4 at VT 47, down 45Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 13:48GT 4th & 13 at VT 46, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%−0.121% to convertField goal0.4%−0.123% to makePunt0.5%average punt
- Q4 8:20VT 4th & 5 at GT 5, up 45Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%−<0.133% to convertField goal99.6%92% to makePunt99.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:00GT 4th & 7 at VT 41, down 45Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.132% to makePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 7:53VT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.0%97% to makeGo for two63.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:49VT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.6%97% to makeGo for two67.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:09VT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:52VT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.4%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:14VT Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:06VT Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
29.7%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 9 yds to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
GTDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
VTDrive 4TD5 plays · 71 yds · 2:0068% → 70%
Q1 9:13
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+9
31.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
VTDrive 6TD7 plays · 77 yds · 3:3370% → 74%
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+37
30.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 37 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
29.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 14 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
29.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Keshawn King for 18 yds to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
VTDrive 8TD8 plays · 69 yds · 3:3974% → 83%
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.7%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Dalton Keene, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+16
25.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 16 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+4
25.0%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 4 yds to the GTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 1:2918% → 17%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
18.2%
James Graham pass complete to Jerry Howard Jr. for 5 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-2
18.2%
James Graham pass complete to Tobias Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 19Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 1
OWN 41
-6
18.3%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 29 Jordan Mason fumbled, recovered by GTech Jordan MasonSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 18
OWN 24
0
17.2%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 39 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 8:13
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+33
15.2%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 33 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11INT TD1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+17
12.6%
James Graham pass intercepted for a TD Caleb Farley return for 17 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
12.8%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-18
12.5%
James Graham sacked by DaShawn Crawford for a loss of 18 yards to the GTech 6 James Graham fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+8
13.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 47 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 8 yds to the GTech 27 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, targeting (Christian Campbell) to the GTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FG5 plays · 39 yds · 2:1287% → 92%
GTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:428% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 14:58
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-9
6.3%
Hendon Hooker sacked by Jordan Domineck and Ja'Quon Griffin for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:507% → 7%
VTDrive 18TD4 plays · 19 yds · 1:3496% → 98%
Q3 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
1.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 7 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 10:05
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+10
1.8%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 53 yds , Tayvion Robinson returns for 10 yds to the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:4998% → 98%
Q3 8:07
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
1.7%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD6 plays · 87 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+64
1.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Keshawn King for 64 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+5
0.8%
Patterson II, Q pass incomplete to Robinson, T, PENALTY GT pass interference (Showell, A.) 5 yards to the GT2, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23DOWNS16 plays · 40 yds · 3:111% → 0%
Q3 1:59
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+15
0.5%
Harvin III, P. punt 60 yards to the VT23, Robinson, T return to the VT39 (King, J.), PENALTY VT personal foul 15 yards to the GT32, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 4 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-6
0.4%
Jordan Yates sacked by Alan Tisdale for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+17
0.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 17 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+13
0.3%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 13 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
0.4%
Jordan Yates sacked by Alan Tisdale for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 13
OPP 46
-4
0.4%
Jordan Yates sacked by Jarrod Hewitt and DaShawn Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24DOWNS8 plays · 47 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
0.3%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, offside defense (Justice Dingle) to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25DOWNS10 plays · 56 yds · 3:020% → 0%
VTDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 9 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:09
Hendon Hooker run for 5 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-7.8
FG · Q2 1:16
Brian Johnson 22 yd FG GOOD
-4.8
TD · Q1 2:49
Keshawn King run for 2 yds for a TD (Brian Johnson KICK)
-3.6