2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWAKE score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:46 · Dom Maggio punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:55: Travis Etienne run for 14 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q1 1:29: Nick Sciba 30 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +0.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q2 8:45: B.T. Potter 35 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:42: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:13: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 30 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6WAKE made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:32WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q1 8:02WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.6%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.8%average punt
- Q1 4:02CLEM 4th & 19 at CLEM 49, up 14Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt97.2%average punt
- Q1 1:29WAKE 4th & 11 at CLEM 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.1%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call3.2%86% to makePunt2.6%−0.6average punt
- Q2 13:57CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q2 12:34WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 21, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it3.9%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q2 8:45CLEM 4th & 8 at WAKE 18, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.4%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call95.6%79% to makePunt94.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:59WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 45, down 14Close callPunted · 4.3% before the snapGo for it4.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:15CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 40, up 14Close callPunted · 95.7% before the snapGo for it95.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:31WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 5:26WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 32, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:57WAKE 4th & 4 at CLEM 28, down 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.160% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:46WAKE 4th & 15 at WAKE 18, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:54CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 29, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
- Q4 3:12WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 34, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:13CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 18, up 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 11:40CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:55CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.4%97% to makeGo for two97.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:42CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:40CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:05CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:49CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:232% → 2%
CLEMDrive 2TD3 plays · 28 yds · 0:4598% → 98%
Q1 11:40
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+14
98.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted Tanner Muse return for no gain to the WFrst 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD4 plays · 41 yds · 1:3498% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:482% → 2%
Q1 8:02
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 60 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 4 yds to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6FUMBLE9 plays · 9 yds · 3:5098% → 98%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
97.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 12 yds to the Clem 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
97.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 9 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-11
97.7%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Ryan Smenda Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the Clem 49Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 19
OWN 49
-21
97.6%
Will Spiers run for a loss of 21 yards to the Clem 28 Will Spiers fumbled, recovered by Clem Will SpiersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG7 plays · 16 yds · 2:263% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1097% → 97%
WAKEDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 1:063% → 3%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
96.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Cade Carney for 4 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-9
96.8%
Jamie Newman sacked by Tanner Muse for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+4
96.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 61 yds , Derion Kendrick returns for 4 yds to the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10FG11 plays · 60 yds · 3:4097% → 97%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 6 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+18
96.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 18 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
96.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 6 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 4
OPP 14
-4
96.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:293% → 4%
Q2 7:24
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
96.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 10 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3597% → 97%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
96.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn Ross CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (John Simpson) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
96.6%
Will Spiers punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:354% → 4%
CLEMDrive 14TD7 plays · 80 yds · 1:3397% → 99%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Clem 30Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
96.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 23 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
96.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 8 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15INT5 plays · 12 yds · 0:172% → 1%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
98.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Donavon Greene for 5 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
98.9%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted A.J. Terrell return for 37 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD1 play · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 30 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17END OF HALF2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:15100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+7
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+21
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 6 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Ja'Cquez Williams) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 11 yds to the WFrst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-4
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Dion Bergan Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 10Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 10 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q3 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
99.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 7 yds to the WFrst 31 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Kendall Hinton) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD6 plays · 86 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
WAKEDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 8 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22INT5 plays · 22 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q3 4:39
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Davis Allen for 15 yds to the Clem 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 7 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Keegan Good return for no gain to the Clem 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23DOWNS6 plays · 18 yds · 2:480% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24TD8 plays · 71 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 13:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darien Rencher for 12 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+21
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Joe Ngata for 21 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Joe Ngata for 21 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 1:540% → 0%
Q4 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-8
100.0%
Tayvon Bowers sacked by Darnell Jefferies and Ruke Orhorhoro for a loss of 8 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:34100% → 100%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-14
99.9%
Chez Mellusi run for 1 yd to the Clem 34 CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Matt Bockhorst) to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 4:180% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 28PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
Q4 1:13
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+37
100.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 42 yds, downed at the CLEMSON 40 CLEMSON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:42
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 0:13
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 30 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.8
FG · Q2 8:45
B.T. Potter 35 yd FG GOOD
+0.4