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UNC

North Carolina 27 at Pittsburgh 34

PITT
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2019 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:38 · Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remainingScore differential
+21.5+10.80−10.8−21.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 59Home team on offense+0.5Pregame prior+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Time remaining+0.0Score differential+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:12: A.J. Davis run for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +14.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:11: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +13.7 pts (now 28%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:43: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +30.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:13: Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +26.8 pts (now 53%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +18.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00UNC 4th & 1 at PITT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:30PITT 4th & 1 at UNC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:32PITT 4th & 4 at UNC 23, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    61.1%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:14PITT 4th & 3 at UNC 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:36UNC 4th & 2 at PITT 8, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%−1.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    23.8%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:33PITT 4th & 3 at UNC 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%−0.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 4 at UNC 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−1.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:59UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:11PITT 4th & 20 at PITT 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−5.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:18PITT 4th & 2 at UNC 6, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.6%−5.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−29.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:13UNC 4th & 12 at PITT 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−22.2
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−28.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:14UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:03PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:41PITT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:12PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:11UNC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:43UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
58.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
58.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
58.8%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
58.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-1
58.8%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 3:5859% → 60%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+10
59.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 10 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
59.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+6
59.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
50
+8
59.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 8 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
59.2%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+1
59.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
59.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Jared WayneSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+12
59.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 12 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
59.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-LouisSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
59.3%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
59.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
59.8%
Alex Kessman 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:1840% → 44%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
59.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+22
59.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 22 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
59.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Amir Watts) to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
59.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
59.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+11
59.0%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
56.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 21 yds for a TD PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 68 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
57.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 48 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
58.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
58.7%
A.J. Davis run for 6 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+7
58.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
58.7%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 6:14
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
58.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+1
58.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 3
OPP 7
0
57.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by DeAndre HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
56.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-6
56.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 16
OWN 15
+1
56.7%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 16Similar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+4
57.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 4 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 11
OWN 20
0
57.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 52 yds, downed at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1056% → 63%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
56.2%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
57.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 9 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
57.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+28
56.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 28 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Dominique RossSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
58.4%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+15
57.7%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Jacques-Louis, QB hurry by Surratt, C, PENALTY NC pass interference (Hollins, D) 15 yards to the NC12, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
58.5%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+6
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 1:2539% → 39%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.7%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
60.3%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.3%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
60.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Beau Corrales) to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-6
60.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Phil Campbell III for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+13
61.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 13 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
61.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
66.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 74 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:0533% → 35%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+59
67.5%
Antonio Williams run for 59 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
64.5%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
64.5%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
65.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
64.8%
Noah Ruggles 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10MISSED FG
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:0367% → 69%
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
67.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
67.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Chazz Surratt) to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Myles DornSimilar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
68.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Aaron Crawford) to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
69.2%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
69.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+6
68.6%
V'Lique Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
69.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to John Vardzel for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+14
69.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 14 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
69.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 14
OPP 19
+12
69.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 12 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 2
OPP 7
-1
68.6%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 2:33
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
69.2%
Alex Kessman 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11INT
14 plays · 49 yds · 2:0332% → 34%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
67.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 13
OWN 17
0
68.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael Carter, broken up by Phil Campbell IIISimilar
Q2 2:33
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+15
69.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 15 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
67.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 25 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
65.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 2
OPP 35
0
63.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
64.1%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.2%
TEAM run for no gain to the Pitt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Antonio WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 17
OPP 37
-9
67.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado and Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 26
OPP 46
+15
70.9%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Newsome, D (Hamlin, D), PENALTY UP personal foul (Hamlin, D) 15 yards to the UP31, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
66.2%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Damarri Mathis return for 3 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
70.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
70.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 30 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
72.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-2
72.6%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 39 A.J. Davis fumbled, forced by Aaron Crawford, recovered by Pitt Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
71.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
70.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 34 yds, downed at the NCaro 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
12 plays · 43 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
70.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 11
+7
70.5%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
70.0%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 24
0
69.4%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
70.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 5 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
69.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
70.1%
Antonio Williams run for 14 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-1
68.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+5
70.2%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Lawler, J, PENALTY UP offside defense (Jones, P) 5 yards to the NC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+1
68.0%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 5
OWN 48
+7
69.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds , John Vardzel returns for 7 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 6:3374% → 92%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
74.0%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+12
74.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will GraggSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
74.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 5 yds to the Pitt 36 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (Jimmy Morrissey) to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+28
73.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 28 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
76.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
76.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+8
75.9%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
77.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Shocky Jacques-Louis, broken up by Storm DuckSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
77.0%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+10
76.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 10 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
77.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 6 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+2
77.1%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 8Similar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+8
91.5%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 4:0112% → 28%
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
88.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+10
88.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
86.8%
Antonio Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
86.2%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-15
85.3%
Howell, S pass complete to Brown, D for 11 yards to the UP34 (Ford, P), PENALTY NC illegal block (Anderson, B) 15 yards to the NC40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:39
2ND & 17
OWN 40
+26
87.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 26 yds to the PITTSBURGH 34 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
84.4%
Sam Howell sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 37
0
86.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 37
+10
87.4%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Newsome, D, QB hurry by Twyman, J, PENALTY UP holding (Ford, P) 10 yards to the UP27, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
85.4%
Antonio Williams run for 7 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+10
85.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
71.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0083% → 80%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart, broken up by DeAndre HollinsSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-5
80.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Saleem Brightwell) to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
80.2%
Alex Kessman punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 1:0023% → 56%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
76.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 16 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
74.5%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+34
44.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 6:2557% → 74%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.0%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
57.2%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
56.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 5 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
58.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 13 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
61.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to John Vardzel for 2 yds to the PITTSBURGH 49 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, roughing passer (Allen Cater) to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
64.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+4
63.8%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+15
62.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 15 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
64.0%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+1
64.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+4
62.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 4 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+24
73.8%
Alex Kessman 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FG
19 plays · 60 yds · 5:0533% → 53%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.8%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
65.5%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
65.7%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Newsome, D (Stocker, J), PENALTY UP pass interference (Stocker, J) 8 yards to the NC40, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
63.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+27
68.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 27 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
59.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Jason PinnockSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-10
59.3%
Howell, S pass complete to Carter, M for 4 yards to the UP35 (Jones, P), PENALTY NC holding (Newsome, D) 10 yards to the UP49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 20
OPP 49
+9
64.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 11
OPP 40
+13
62.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
55.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 8 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
55.5%
Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-2
55.5%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 12
OPP 15
0
56.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 12
OPP 15
0
69.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Jason PinnockSimilar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 12
OPP 15
+32
46.6%
Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
55.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
64.7%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-5
64.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Jared Wayne) to the NCaro 29Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
61.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Jason StrowbridgeSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 14
OPP 29
+15
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 15 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
64.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 8 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
64.7%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 8%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
82.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome, broken up by Deslin AlexandreSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+6
88.2%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+8
89.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
80.4%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
82.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 12
-5
88.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 16
OPP 17
0
92.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael Carter, broken up by Deslin AlexandreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:43
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 34 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-30.3
FG · Q4 0:13
Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOOD
-26.8
TD · OT 0:00
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds for a TD (Alex Kessman KICK)
+18.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com