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FSU

Florida State 38 at Boston College 31

BC
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:36 · Tommy Martin punt for 12 yds, downed at the BC 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:24: Jordan Travis run for 26 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:23: Cam Akers run for 13 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:33: Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +31.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:48: James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 60 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +38.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:14: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +14.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 5:51FSU 4th & 3 at BC 3, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−0.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−1.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:25BC 4th & 4 at FSU 20, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.7%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00FSU 4th & 6 at BC 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    43.0%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57BC 4th & 19 at BC 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−1.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:36FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00BC 4th & 4 at FSU 28, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−0.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    44.0%−7.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:24BC 4th & 6 at BC 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:02FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:43BC 4th & 5 at FSU 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:17FSU 4th & 1 at BC 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%−3.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−14.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:10BC 4th & 6 at FSU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.2%
    85% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−8.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:10FSU 4th & 6 at BC 38, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−1.6
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:22BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:24FSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:23FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:33BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.7%−1.7
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:48FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%−0.8
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:03FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:14BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3851% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
51.0%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
51.0%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
51.0%
Zay Flowers run for 6 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
51.0%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+5
51.0%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
51.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+9
51.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 9 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
51.0%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-10
51.0%
Dillon,A rush for 24 yards to the FS10, out-of-bounds (Dent,Ak), PENALTY BC holding (Johnson,Z) 10 yards to the FS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+22
51.0%
Dennis Grosel run for 22 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
51.0%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+13
51.0%
David Bailey run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
51.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
51.0%
Dennis Grosel run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 17 Dennis Grosel fumbled, recovered by BC David BaileySimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
54.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 17 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 3:2246% → 47%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
53.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 15 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
53.5%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
53.6%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+12
53.6%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 12 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
53.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-5
53.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Darius Washington) to the BC 29Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+12
53.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 12 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+14
53.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 14 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
53.2%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 4Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
53.2%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the BC 3Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.5%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
53.3%
Ricky Aguayo 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:1954% → 55%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
53.8%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
54.2%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
54.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 45Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+18
54.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 18 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
54.7%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+4
54.9%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
54.5%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
54.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Akeem DentSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
54.9%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
54.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
55.0%
Aaron Boumerhi 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 41 yds · 1:2545% → 46%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
54.6%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
54.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+2
53.4%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
53.5%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
53.8%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+11
54.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 11 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith Gavin, broken up by Jason MaitreSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+8
53.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 8 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+1
53.3%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the BC 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-5
54.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the BC 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
54.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
55.3%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 19Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 2
OWN 19
0
55.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 19Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+3
54.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
55.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Ben Petrula) to the BC 17Similar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 15
OWN 17
-2
55.3%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 15Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+2
55.2%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 15
OWN 17
-5
54.5%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 12Similar
Q2 12:57
3RD & 20
OWN 12
+1
54.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 1 yd to the BC 13Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 19
OWN 13
-10
54.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 46 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3641% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
58.9%
James Blackman run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 47 James Blackman fumbled, recovered by FlaSt James Blackman for a 1ST down , return for 14 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive holding (Elijah Jones) to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
56.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
-2
55.8%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+10
56.6%
James Blackman run for 10 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
55.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-1
54.8%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 26Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+26
43.6%
Jordan Travis run for 26 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
49.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-5
49.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Darius Washington) to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+26
50.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 26 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
48.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 49
0
49.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun Harrison, broken up by Mehdi El AttrachSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
49.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for no gain to the FlaSt 49 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 15
OWN 49
0
49.8%
James Blackman run for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
50.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 12 yds, downed at the BC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0650% → 53%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
50.3%
AJ Dillon run for 8 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+19
51.8%
AJ Dillon run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
52.9%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+1
53.0%
Zay Flowers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+20
51.8%
David Bailey run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
53.2%
David Bailey run for 11 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 84 yds · 0:3555% → 52%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
45.3%
PENALTY FS holding off-setting, PENALTY BC pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
48.3%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
48.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 74 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10MISSED FG
15 plays · 46 yds · 4:2649% → 49%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
49.2%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.9%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 38Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
49.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for no gain to the BC 38Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+14
49.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 14 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
52.1%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+3
50.7%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+12
51.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 12 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
53.2%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-10
53.1%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Emmett Rice for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 19
OPP 43
+15
47.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for 15 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+45
48.6%
Aaron Boumerhi 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.3%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
47.5%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
48.4%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
50.2%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+3
48.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
49.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
46.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
46.8%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 3
OWN 17
-1
46.6%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
48.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
49.4%
Tommy Martin punt for 37 yds, downed at the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
50.7%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for 7 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
51.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+2
50.9%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
51.5%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
51.3%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-1
51.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
48.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:5457% → 77%
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
43.2%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 8
OWN 39
-6
41.9%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Gabe Nabers) to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 14
OWN 33
-5
44.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Ryan Roberts) to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+24
45.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 24 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
41.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 26 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
39.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Camren McDonald, broken up by Max RichardsonSimilar
Q3 6:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
40.0%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+8
41.7%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q3 6:17
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+5
43.1%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the BC 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
37.6%
Blackman,J pass complete to Terry,T for 8 yards to the BC0, clock 02:53, PENALTY FS illegal formation 5 yards to the BC13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
38.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q3 2:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
22.6%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 5:0825% → 30%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
25.4%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
27.1%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
26.3%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the BC 41 Dennis Grosel fumbled, forced by Emmett Rice, recovered by BC Elijah Robinson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
26.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
27.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+9
25.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to David Bailey for 9 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
26.9%
Kobay White run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+5
27.1%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
28.6%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
28.7%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+11
24.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Ethon Williams for 11 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
26.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
25.8%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
24.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to AJ DillonSimilar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
30.2%
Aaron Boumerhi 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
24.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
21.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 17 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
20.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Gabe Nabers, broken up by Mehdi El AttrachSimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+8
21.0%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
20.7%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-5
23.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Darius Washington) to the BC 38Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
23.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD
16 plays · 90 yds · 7:0825% → 64%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
24.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 11Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+15
24.6%
Grosel,D pass incomplete to White,K (Dent,Ak), PENALTY FS pass interference (Dent,Ak) 15 yards to the BC26, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
25.7%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+4
25.9%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+6
26.5%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
28.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Travis Levy for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 1
50
+3
30.2%
Travis Levy run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
30.7%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
30.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+17
28.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Ethon Williams for 17 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
32.7%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+24
32.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
32.7%
Dillon,A rush for no gain to the FS2 (Becker,C), PENALTY FS OF (Becker,C) 1 yards to the FS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
Dillon,A rush for loss of 2 yards to the FS3 (Becker,C), PENALTY FS OF (Boselli,A) 0 yards to the FS1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.7%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:3956% → 95%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
43.7%
James Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+60
5.4%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 60 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0015% → 17%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
15.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for 14 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
17.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Jake Burt, broken up by Emmett RiceSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
17.1%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted Stanford Samuels III return for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 0:2095% → 98%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
5.5%
James Blackman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 34
0
5.6%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 1:03
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+66
2.0%
Jordan Travis run for 66 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:491% → 16%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to AJ Dillon for 11 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
1.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for 23 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
1.2%
Grosel,D pass complete to Flowers,Z for 38 yards to the FS3 (Dent,Ak), PENALTY BC illegal touching (Flowers,Z) 0 yards to the FS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+21
1.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for 21 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
16.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 20 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:48
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 60 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-38.3
TD · Q4 2:33
Dennis Grosel run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+31.3
TD · Q3 2:23
Cam Akers run for 13 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com