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MIA

Miami 27 at Florida State 10

FSU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:16 · James Blackman pass intercepted Gurvan Hall Jr. return for 26 yds to the FlaSt 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−37.9Pregame prior+0.5Score differential−19.3Garbage-time factor−15.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−10.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:58: DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — MIA win probability +10.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Camden Price 29 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +5.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:31: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 18 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +15.7 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:31: Parker Grothaus kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — MIA win probability +5.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:05: Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 56 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK) — MIA win probability +18.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 12:55MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:28FSU 4th & 30 at FSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:03MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15FSU 4th & 20 at MIA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.3%−2.3
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−5.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:48FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−2.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:01FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:28FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:03MIA 4th & 9 at FSU 26, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−3.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 10 at FSU 13, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.6%
    85% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−6.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:10MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−3.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:23MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:56FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−3.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:01MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−3.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:41FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 8, down 7
    Close callPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:55MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 20, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%−2.3
    75% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−9.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:14FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−4.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:09FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−1.7
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:27MIA 4th & 7 at FSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−4.7
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:16FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−0.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:00MIA 4th & 1 at FSU 35, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:10MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:58MIA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:31FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:05MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5940% → 40%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
60.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Robert Cooper) to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 14:26
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+7
60.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
60.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 4
OWN 38
-5
59.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
60.1%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 9
OWN 33
+7
60.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 39 yds , Isaiah Bolden returns for 7 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4460% → 60%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
60.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
60.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-10
60.2%
Hornibrook, Alex pass complete to Matthews, D.J. for 5 yards to the MIAMI49, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (McKitty, Tre') 10 yards to the FLORIDAST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 21
OWN 36
+6
60.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 6 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
60.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
59.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4440% → 43%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
60.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
60.0%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+42
60.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 42 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
59.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 39 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+39
57.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 39 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · -2 yds · 3:2958% → 56%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
57.6%
Akers, Cam rush for 1 yard to the FLORIDAST26, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal formation 5 yards to the FLORIDAST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
57.4%
Hornibrook, Alex pass complete to Harrison, Tre'Shaun for 14 yards to the FLORIDAST34, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (McKitty, Tre') 10 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+18
57.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 18 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
57.4%
Akers, Cam rush for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDAST27, PENALTY MIAMI illegal use of hands 15 yards to the FLORIDAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
57.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Dontae Lucas) to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 7:13
1ST & 15
OWN 38
-10
57.1%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 25
OWN 28
+4
56.7%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 21
OWN 32
-9
56.0%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 5:28
4TH & 30
OWN 23
0
55.6%
Tommy Martin punt for 42 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:1844% → 45%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
55.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+7
55.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
54.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 2 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
54.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 9
OWN 46
-4
54.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-4 Yards) to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q1 2:16
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
54.4%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
54.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 32 yds, downed at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 6:3655% → 55%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
54.6%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-5
55.2%
Hornibrook, Alex pass complete to Matthews, D.J. for loss of 1 yard to the FLORIDAST33, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal formation 5 yards to the FLORIDAST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+4
54.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
53.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 5 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
54.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keith Gavin for 6 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
55.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
54.9%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
55.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
55.1%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+8
54.7%
Alex Hornibrook run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
54.8%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+20
53.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 20 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
55.4%
D.J. Matthews run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+5
55.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 5 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
55.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
-6
52.8%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Amari Carter for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+37
55.2%
Ricky Aguayo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:4745% → 44%
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 10 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
55.7%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
55.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2855% → 53%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
54.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
54.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-5
53.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Darius Washington) to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 8:55
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
53.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+23
53.1%
Tommy Martin punt for 38 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the FLORIDAST 45 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Camren McDonald) to the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5548% → 49%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
51.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 8:03
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+8
49.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 8 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
49.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
49.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-11
50.7%
Jarren Williams sacked by Amari Gainer for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 37 Jarren Williams fumbled, forced by Amari Gainer, recovered by FlaSt Hamsah Nasirildeen , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1954% → 54%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-13
54.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Alex HornibrookSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 23
OWN 24
+15
52.8%
Cam Akers run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
53.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 7 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 6:01
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
53.9%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11TD
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:5550% → 61%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
49.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
49.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+34
49.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 34 yds to the FlaSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
39.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5240% → 38%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
39.6%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 10 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+2
39.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
37.7%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
37.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF
13 plays · 33 yds · 2:2461% → 71%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to DeeJay DallasSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+19
38.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 19 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
37.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
35.7%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
36.2%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+13
37.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 13 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
35.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
34.5%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-15
34.7%
Williams, Jarren pass incomplete to Thomas, Jeff, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Thomas, Jeff) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 25
OPP 28
+15
34.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 15 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+29
29.3%
Camden Price 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2632% → 32%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.0%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
31.6%
Cam Akers run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
33.5%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
33.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
31.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass intercepted Bubba Bolden return for no gain to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1672% → 72%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
27.7%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
27.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+7
26.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 7 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
28.1%
Jarren Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3431% → 47%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
30.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+8
30.7%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
50
+18
30.7%
Cam Akers pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 18 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
31.4%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
31.4%
Alex Hornibrook run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
47.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 18 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0060% → 60%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
39.8%
Jarren Williams sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 9:03
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
40.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 13 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 39 yds, downed at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 3:1541% → 36%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
40.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
43.3%
Khalan Laborn run for no gain to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+6
42.2%
Cam Akers pass complete to Alex Hornibrook for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
42.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-5
40.8%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Roberts) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 16
OWN 39
+6
39.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 5:36
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-6
39.3%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 16
OWN 39
0
35.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:3768% → 65%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
50
+1
31.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
31.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 5 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 3:28
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-11
31.0%
Williams, Jarren pass complete to Dallas, DeeJay for 10 yards to the FLORIDAST34, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Scaife Jr., DJ) 11 yards to the MIAMI45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 15
OWN 45
0
33.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
34.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 54 yds, downed at the FlaSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1436% → 33%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
36.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
35.9%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
34.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+23
33.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 44 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 23 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3672% → 70%
Q3 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
28.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+4
28.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+2
27.6%
Jarren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
29.6%
Camden Price 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:2433% → 28%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
32.7%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Jonathan Ford for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+9
32.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 9 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
30.2%
Hornibrook, Alex pass incomplete to Nabers, Gabe, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer (Hall Jr., Gurvan) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
32.8%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-4
32.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
29.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+18
28.1%
Tommy Martin punt for 41 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 18 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
9.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 56 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:4015% → 11%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
14.5%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Nesta Jade Silvera for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+2
13.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-4
13.2%
Alex Hornibrook sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 10:09
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+3
10.5%
Tommy Martin punt for 46 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:3293% → 95%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
7.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
7.0%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to DeeJay DallasSimilar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-5
7.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+16
7.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+26
6.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 26 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
6.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
5.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 6:31
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
5.3%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+32
4.8%
Camden Price 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:545% → 3%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
4.8%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 4
OWN 19
-1
3.4%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+13
3.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 13 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
3.2%
James Blackman sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+13
3.0%
James Blackman run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 3:53
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
3.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+26
3.0%
James Blackman pass intercepted Gurvan Hall Jr. return for 26 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 13 yds · 3:0498% → 98%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
2.5%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+2
2.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
1.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+4
1.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:05
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 56 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
-18.5
TD · Q3 10:31
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 18 yds for a TD (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+15.7
TD · Q2 3:58
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds for a TD (Camden Price KICK)
-10.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com