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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadWOF aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreWOF score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:21 · Luke Carter punt for 51 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 7 yds to the Clem 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 5:53: Travis Etienne run for 47 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:48: Travis Etienne run for 86 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WOF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:21WOF 4th & 8 at WOF 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 6:29WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q1 3:03WOF 4th & 9 at WOF 39, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q1 1:37CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 32, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q1 0:07WOF 4th & 3 at WOF 40, down 21Close callPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:32WOF 4th & 5 at CLEM 48, down 28Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:31WOF 4th & 15 at WOF 32, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 12:54WOF 4th & 6 at WOF 29, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:38CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 44, up 42Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 11:37WOF 4th & 4 at WOF 27, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:20CLEM 4th & 7 at WOF 18, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%79% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 5:07CLEM 4th & 9 at WOF 18, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%79% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:00WOF 4th & 5 at WOF 28, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 8WOF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:00CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:18CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:53CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:48CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:02CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:47CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:48CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:36WOF Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:10CLEM Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:09WOF Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+11
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 11 yds to the Woffd 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
99.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 35 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q1 11:21
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+7
99.6%
Luke Carter punt for 51 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 7 yds to the Clem 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD5 plays · 71 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
WOFDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 2:321% → 1%
Q1 6:29
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Luke Carter punt for 47 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD2 plays · 81 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
WOFDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:370% → 1%
Q1 3:03
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
99.5%
Luke Carter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
WOFDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q1 0:07
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Luke Carter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9TD2 plays · 88 yds · 0:13100% → 100%
WOFDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 3:480% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD6 plays · 83 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
99.7%
Trevor Lawrence run for 6 yds to the Woffd 37 for a 1ST down WOFFORD Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Woffd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
99.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 22 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 12INT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q2 6:27
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+17
99.8%
Joe Newman pass intercepted Isaiah Simmons return for 17 yds to the Woffd 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13TD5 plays · 12 yds · 1:40100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 3:380% → 0%
Q2 0:31
4TH & 15
OWN 32
+16
99.9%
Luke Carter punt for 45 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 16 yds to the Clem 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 25 yds · 0:11100% → 100%
WOFDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 12:54
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+55
99.9%
Luke Carter punt for 45 yds, downed at the CLEMSON 26 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+23
99.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 23 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+8
99.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 8 yds to the Woffd 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 34 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 18TD9 plays · 65 yds · 3:390% → 0%
CLEMDrive 19TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:05100% → 100%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 6 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+14
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 14 yds to the Woffd 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for 5 yds to the Woffd 9Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+6
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for 6 yds to the Woffd 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 20TD4 plays · 85 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q3 2:09
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+79
100.0%
Joe Newman pass complete to D'mauriae VanCleave for 79 yds for a TD (Luke Carter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 20 yds · 3:22100% → 100%
WOFDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:530% → 0%
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
100.0%
Miller Mosley pass complete to Landon Parker for 6 yds to the Woffd 27Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Jamari Broussard run for no gain to the Woffd 27 Jamari Broussard fumbled, recovered by Woffd Josh LifsonSimilar
Q4 11:37
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
100.0%
Luke Carter punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Will Swinney at the Clem 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23MISSED FG8 plays · 48 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+26
100.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 26 yds to the Woffd 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 24FUMBLE6 plays · -1 yds · 2:520% → 0%
Q4 6:15
2ND & 24
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
Miller Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Woffd 19 Miller Mosley fumbled, forced by Mike Jones Jr., recovered by Clem Sheridan JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25FG4 plays · 1 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
100.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for no gain to the Woffd 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WOFDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:290% → 0%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
100.0%
Miller Mosley run for 2 yds to the Woffd 9 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (LaVonta Bentley) to the Woffd 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+3
100.0%
Luke Carter punt for 48 yds , Will Brown returns for 3 yds to the Clem 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27Uncategorized5 plays · 19 yds · 1:35100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:48
Travis Etienne run for 86 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.3
TD · Q1 5:53
Travis Etienne run for 47 yds for a TD (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.1