2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:54 · Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Aaron Hackett
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:27: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 50 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +8.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:31: AJ Dillon run for 51 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +8.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:47: David Bailey run for 74 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — BC win probability +10.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Isaiah Miranda for 4 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +6.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:54: AJ Dillon run for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +6.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 9 of 12BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
- Q1 10:37BC 4th & 3 at SYR 4, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 40.7% before the snapGo for it40.7%45% to convertField goalTheir call40.6%−0.193% to makePunt40.0%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:19SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snapGo for it58.0%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.1%average punt
- Q1 1:43SYR 4th & 4 at BC 29, down 3Close callKicked a field goal · 58.2% before the snapGo for it58.2%48% to convertField goalTheir call57.9%−0.358% to makePunt56.0%−2.1average punt
- Q2 9:29SYR 4th & 12 at BC 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snapGo for it58.5%−0.819% to convertField goalTheir call59.4%86% to makePunt55.7%−3.7average punt
- Q2 7:27SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 9, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snapGo for it49.8%−1.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.6%average punt
- Q2 5:31SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 26, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snapGo for it40.4%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.7%average punt
- Q2 0:44BC 4th & 1 at SYR 7, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call76.9%70% to convertField goal74.6%−2.391% to makePunt66.1%−10.8average punt
- Q3 15:00SYR 4th & 7 at BC 30, down 24Close callWent for it · 21.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.0%−0.137% to convertField goal20.2%56% to makePunt18.7%−1.5average punt
- Q3 8:54SYR 4th & 4 at BC 27, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%48% to convertField goal4.9%−0.162% to makePunt4.0%−1.0average punt
- Q3 6:53BC 4th & 4 at SYR 45, up 31Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it94.9%48% to convertField goal94.7%−0.225% to makePuntTheir call94.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:52SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 34, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:52SYR 4th & 1 at BC 44, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%70% to convertField goal0.7%−0.227% to makePunt0.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 13:52SYR 4th & 4 at BC 15, down 31Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%46% to convertField goal0.8%−<0.183% to makePunt0.4%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:52SYR 4th & 13 at BC 24, down 31Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.7%−0.120% to convertField goal0.8%68% to makePunt0.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:44BC 4th & 10 at BC 16, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.5%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 5:17SYR 4th & 9 at SYR 41, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 3:35BC 4th & 4 at BC 36, up 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 8:07SYR Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call60.8%97% to makeGo for two60.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:19BC Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.8%97% to makeGo for two41.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:29SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.7%97% to makeGo for two63.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:51BC Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.8%97% to makeGo for two39.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:27BC Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.9%97% to makeGo for two46.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:31BC Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call57.4%97% to makeGo for two57.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:47BC Touchdown, up 17 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick68.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call68.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:26BC Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.4%97% to makeGo for two80.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 8:54BC Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:33SYR Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.4%97% to makeGo for two2.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:52BC Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1FG15 plays · 71 yds · 4:2344% → 44%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
56.2%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2TD7 plays · 84 yds · 2:3056% → 59%
Q1 10:37
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+4
56.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 4 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
56.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 12 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+35
56.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 35 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
58.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 9 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:4842% → 45%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
57.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Ben Glines for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 6:19
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+2
55.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 2 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5FUMBLE5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+24
55.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 9 yds Hunter Long fumbled, forced by Andre Cisco, recovered by Syrac Evan Foster , return for 22 yds to the SYRACUSE 47 SYRACUSE Penalty, personal foul (Evan Foster) to the BC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6FG4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2658% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7FUMBLE3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
SYRDrive 8TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:0560% → 63%
Q1 0:29
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
63.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3838% → 45%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
55.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 64 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10FG15 plays · 63 yds · 5:2257% → 59%
Q2 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+16
56.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for 16 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+9
58.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 9 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+24
58.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 24 yds to the BC 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0241% → 51%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
50
+50
48.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 50 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
51.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 9Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 13
OWN 9
0
49.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for no gain to the Syrac 9Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 13
OWN 9
0
49.4%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD2 plays · 51 yds · 0:3551% → 60%
SYRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 5:31
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
39.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 6 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 29
-3
39.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 26Similar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 5
OWN 26
+3
38.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 51 yds , Travis Levy returns for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15TD1 play · 74 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
28.0%
David Bailey run for 74 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 6 yds to the Syrac 31Similar
Q2 3:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
32.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Max Richardson for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 30Similar
Q2 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Tommy DeVito run for no gain to the Syrac 30 Tommy DeVito fumbled, forced by Max Richardson, recovered by BC Marcus ValdezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 17TD9 plays · 30 yds · 2:1275% → 85%
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Isaiah Miranda for 4 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18END OF HALF3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
SYRDrive 19DOWNS10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0019% → 20%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Jarveon Howard for 9 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Jarveon Howard for 2 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
21.5%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Brandon Barlow for a loss of 10 yards to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD9 plays · 74 yds · 3:3388% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21DOWNS8 plays · 38 yds · 0:008% → 8%
BCDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23TD3 plays · 84 yds · 0:523% → 6%
BCDrive 24TD11 plays · 80 yds · 4:4196% → 99%
SYRDrive 25DOWNS19 plays · 59 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
0.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 4 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 12
OWN 45
+11
0.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 11 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+12
1.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 12 yds to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
1.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 11 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+6
1.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Jarveon Howard for 6 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 13:52
4TH & 4
OPP 15
-9
0.9%
Jarveon Howard run for 1 yd to the BC 14 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:44
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds , Sean Riley returns for 5 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BCDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29END OF GAME3 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:47
David Bailey run for 74 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-10.7
TD · Q2 5:31
AJ Dillon run for 51 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-8.9
TD · Q2 7:27
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 50 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-8.8