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MIA

Miami 16 at Pittsburgh 12

PITT
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:32 · Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for no gain to the Pitt 23 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Pitt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+4.3Home team on offense−2.5Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:00: Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Price KICK) — MIA win probability +6.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:39: Alex Kessman 25 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +4.5 pts (now 54%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 7:19: Alex Kessman 29 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +14.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:58: Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 32 yds for a TD, (Mike Harley intercepted ) — MIA win probability +54.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 22 — MIA win probability +11.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 11:15PITT 4th & 11 at MIA 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:13MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:26MIA 4th & 5 at PITT 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    34.4%−2.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:16MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:34PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:56MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 42, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:39PITT 4th & 6 at MIA 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    41.6%−6.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39MIA 4th & 6 at PITT 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:14PITT 4th & 4 at MIA 11, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−10.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:32MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:49PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:45MIA 4th & 3 at PITT 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−1.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−13.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:12PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−2.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:33MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−6.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:19PITT 4th & 11 at MIA 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−7.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−20.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:44MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 30, down 2
    Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:01PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 30, up 2
    Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:34MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.4%−7.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:31PITT 4th & 15 at PITT 20, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:00MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 3:3760% → 61%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
60.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
60.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 5 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+30
60.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 30 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
60.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 47Similar
Q1 13:17
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+2
60.4%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+16
60.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 16 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
60.8%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-3
60.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
60.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+54
60.6%
Alex Kessman 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:4239% → 39%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+19
60.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Saleem Brightwell) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
60.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
60.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
60.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 9:13
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
61.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for no gain to the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3INT
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:3161% → 61%
Q1 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
60.8%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
60.8%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted DJ Ivey return for no gain to the Pitt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:5840% → 41%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
60.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 9 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 1
OPP 26
0
60.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
60.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
60.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+10
60.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Damar Hamlin) to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
60.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 5:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
60.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
59.5%
Camden Price 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5FUMBLE
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:5260% → 61%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.1%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
60.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
60.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
60.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
60.4%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
60.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+8
60.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
61.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+4
61.6%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
61.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds Taysir Mack fumbled, recovered by MiaFl , return for 3 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5441% → 40%
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
58.6%
Dee Wiggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
59.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
59.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:16
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
60.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:5660% → 60%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
60.2%
V'Lique Carter run for 5 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
60.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+28
59.6%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted DJ Ivey return for 28 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:5243% → 50%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
56.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 9 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+7
56.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 7 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
56.6%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the Pitt 1 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by MiaFl N'Kosi PerrySimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Camden Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:1853% → 51%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
52.5%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+9
51.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
53.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 8 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-4
53.6%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 49 V'Lique Carter fumbled, recovered by PittSimilar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
52.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
51.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 2:2649% → 53%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
50.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 13 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
49.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mark Pope for 4 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+5
47.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 42
0
46.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+1
47.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FG
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:5248% → 54%
Q2 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+33
48.3%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 33 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
50.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+30
49.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-11
52.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jonathan Ford and Nigel Bethel Jr. for a loss of 11 yards to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 21
OPP 35
+16
50.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 16 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 4:25
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+8
50.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 8 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
51.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 2 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+2
51.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 6
OPP 7
0
49.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 2:39
4TH & 6
OPP 7
+25
53.9%
Alex Kessman 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:3049% → 52%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
50.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 29 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
47.5%
Mark Pope run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
47.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
46.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
48.1%
Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, downed at the Pitt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:2250% → 52%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
49.7%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+7
50.7%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+8
51.3%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
52.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4951% → 49%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
49.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
49.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-3
50.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Damarri Mathis return for 12 yds to the MiaFl 49 MIAMI FL Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2157% → 57%
Q3 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
56.8%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-4
56.3%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+7
53.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+29
56.9%
Alex Kessman 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2146% → 44%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
53.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
54.4%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
56.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for no gain to the Pitt 23 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:2655% → 54%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
54.8%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
54.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
54.4%
V'Lique Carter run for 1 yd to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
55.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 11 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.9%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
58.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
56.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to A.J. DavisSimilar
Q3 7:49
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
53.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 31 yds, downed at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:4747% → 49%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
52.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
50.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+15
50.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 15 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
48.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
47.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
47.3%
Robert Burns run for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+3
48.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 25
0
50.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0853% → 50%
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
53.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
52.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+6
50.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
49.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3250% → 46%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
50.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-5
50.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Jakai Clark) to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 29
-10
51.8%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaFl 19 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by MiaFlSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 25
OWN 19
+9
53.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 0:33
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
54.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 47 yds, downed at the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21FG
16 plays · 64 yds · 8:0451% → 66%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
51.0%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
54.2%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 13 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
55.1%
V'Lique Carter run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
56.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
56.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+2
56.2%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+2
55.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
57.9%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 24
-1
57.9%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+18
55.3%
V'Lique Carter run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
58.3%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
58.3%
V'Lique Carter run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.7%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
52.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
52.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
66.3%
Alex Kessman 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1937% → 33%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.9%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
65.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+46
66.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 61 yds, downed at the PITTSBURGH 9 MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3171% → 73%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
71.0%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+4
71.9%
A.J. Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+1
72.2%
A.J. Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
73.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:5535% → 92%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.0%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
68.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
64.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+5
67.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
63.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+8
64.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 8 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+8
63.3%
Jarren Williams run for 8 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
63.1%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin JordanSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
8.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 32 yds for a TD, (Mike Harley intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:1921% → 17%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
16.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:1595% → 95%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OPP 22
-3
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-3
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:58
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 32 yds for a TD, (Mike Harley intercepted )
-54.7
FG · Q4 7:19
Alex Kessman 29 yd FG GOOD
+14
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:16
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 22
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com