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UVA

Virginia 21 at Louisville 28

LOU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:50 · Blanton Creque 38 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+0.9Pregame prior−7.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:53: Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +18.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:22: Micale Cunningham run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +22.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:22: Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47 — UVA win probability +12.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:46: Javian Hawkins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Chalifoux KICK) — LOU win probability +6.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:21: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +13.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00LOU 4th & 14 at UVA 36, tied
    Close callWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    42.3%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    42.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:50LOU 4th & 8 at UVA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:50UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:16LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:13LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:47UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:03LOU 4th & 18 at LOU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−4.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.9%−0.6
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:53UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−6.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:08LOU 4th & 14 at UVA 35, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    51.9%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−1.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:22UVA 4th & 27 at UVA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:37LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:43UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 29, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.7 ptsPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−3.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:57UVA 4th & 6 at LOU 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:57UVA 4th & 10 at LOU 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 5:16UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:27LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:13UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:53LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:22LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:46LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:21UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 40 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.2%
Micale Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+9
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 9 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
40.2%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 5 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
40.2%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
40.2%
Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+8
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
40.2%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
40.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-7
40.2%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 36
-4
40.2%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Joey Blount for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5758% → 62%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
41.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 9 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+2
41.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
41.4%
Perkins, B sideline pass complete to Reed, J for 3 yards to the LOU46, out-of-bounds (Etheridge, D.), PENALTY LOU offside defense (Peterson, T.) 5 yards to the LOU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 5
OPP 44
0
41.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
41.4%
Tavares Kelly Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
41.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 49Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+39
41.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 39 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
41.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
38.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 0:4940% → 43%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
39.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-1
39.5%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+77
43.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 77 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
42.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-10
42.3%
Perkins, B deep pass incomplete to Kelly, T, PENALTY VA holding (Reinkensmeyer,D) 10 yards to the VA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+3
43.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 14
OWN 37
0
43.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Marlon CharacterSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
43.9%
Nash Griffin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4844% → 46%
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
44.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
44.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+48
44.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 48 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
45.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-4
45.9%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
46.6%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Nick GrantSimilar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
45.5%
Blanton Creque 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
44.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
44.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-5
44.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
44.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tavares Kelly Jr.Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
45.3%
Nash Griffin punt for 78 yds, downed at the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
45.1%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 8Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
45.0%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 14:16
3RD & 3
OWN 14
0
44.5%
Evan Conley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
44.0%
Mason King punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:4057% → 64%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
43.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+4
42.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 4 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
42.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 12 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
42.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 12 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
35.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 19 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.3%
Conley, E. sideline pass complete to Dawkins, S. for 19 yards to the LOU44, out-of-bounds (Nelson, B), PENALTY LOU illegal formation 5 yards to the LOU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-6
38.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Lvile 14Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 21
OWN 14
+1
38.1%
Evan Conley pass complete to Javian Hawkins for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+6
38.1%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 6 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 10:13
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
37.4%
Evan Conley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:13
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+43
37.1%
Mason King punt for 43 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
35.4%
Joe Reed run for 2 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
35.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
34.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe Reed, broken up by C.J. AverySimilar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
35.7%
Nash Griffin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
36.2%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 10 LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-8
36.2%
Tutu Atwell run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 2 Tutu Atwell fumbled, recovered by Lvile Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 18
OWN 2
0
35.1%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 2Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 18
OWN 2
+4
34.7%
Mason King punt for 53 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 4 yds to the Virg 6 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12INT
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
33.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
50
+9
33.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 9 yds Terrell Jana fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson,Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-1
33.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+6
33.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
33.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 12 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
32.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 6
OPP 20
0
32.8%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Chandler Jones return for no gain to the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
34.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 3
OWN 15
-7
35.1%
Evan Conley sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
31.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 22 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
30.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
30.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-5
31.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Dillon Reinkensmeyer) to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 40
+5
31.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
32.5%
Nash Griffin punt for 24 yds, downed at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 89 yds · 5:3333% → 58%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
33.4%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
33.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+15
32.2%
Micale Cunningham run for 15 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.6%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
33.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+10
32.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
34.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
36.0%
Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+15
35.8%
Cunningham, M. sideline pass incomplete to Dawkins, S., PENALTY VA personal foul (Mack, J) 15 yards to the VA42, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
37.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
38.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+26
38.8%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 26 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
48.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 14 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
48.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-7
48.6%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Marlon Character for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 21Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 17
OWN 21
0
50.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 17
OWN 21
+34
51.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 44 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 34 yds to the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0058% → 50%
Q3 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-3
58.0%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 13
OPP 34
+5
56.0%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 4:08
3RD & 8
OPP 29
-6
56.2%
Micale Cunningham sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 4:08
4TH & 14
OPP 35
0
50.0%
Mason King punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
48.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
47.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
47.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds Joe Reed fumbled, forced by Boosie Whitlow, recovered by Lvile C.J. AverySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 34 yds · 1:0859% → 82%
Q3 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
59.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+5
59.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
81.8%
Micale Cunningham run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:0031% → 25%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
68.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+10
68.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
68.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-4
68.9%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 13
OPP 40
-14
72.1%
Bryce Perkins sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 14 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 14:22
4TH & 27
OWN 46
0
75.2%
Nash Griffin punt for 32 yds, downed at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.2%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+15
83.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 15 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
84.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
85.0%
Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
84.2%
Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
83.0%
Mason King punt for 56 yds, downed at the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
81.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+9
81.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 9 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+10
82.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 10 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
80.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
79.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
80.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell JanaSimilar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
81.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 34 yds, downed at the Lvile 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 2:1990% → 97%
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
89.7%
Cunningham, M. deep pass incomplete to Fitzpatrick, D., PENALTY VA pass interference (Cross, D) 15 yards to the VA48, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
90.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 5:05
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+5
90.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
90.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 19 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 17 yds for a TD, (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
19 plays · 69 yds · 2:255% → 15%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
95.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+8
95.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 8 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
95.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-1
97.1%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
97.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell Jana, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 6
OPP 48
+8
97.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
96.9%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dejon BrissettSimilar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
97.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Dejon BrissettSimilar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
97.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+13
97.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 13 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
96.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 7 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-8
98.1%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+24
98.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 24 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.1%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
84.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:1710% → 9%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
90.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q4 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
90.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 1 yd to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 0:04
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
90.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete, broken up by Seth DawkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:22
Micale Cunningham run for 25 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+22.1
TD · Q3 5:53
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+18.9
TD · Q4 0:21
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tavares Kelly Jr. for 4 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com