Try the model
DUKE

Duke 17 at North Carolina 20

UNC
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.5+12.30−12.3−24.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 132Pregame prior+3.0Home team on offense+0.3Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5Blowout margin−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:23: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 47 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +13.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:57: Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 11 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.4 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 8:37: Quentin Harris run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +24.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:00: Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +9.6 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:14: TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 2 — UNC win probability +18.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:28UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:02DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:33DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    39.3%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:36DUKE 4th & 16 at DUKE 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−1.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:41UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:40DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:40UNC 4th & 18 at DUKE 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:40DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.3%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:59UNC 4th & 2 at DUKE 17, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%−1.8
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−13.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:59DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.5%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:11DUKE 4th & 12 at DUKE 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−3.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:15UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−6.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:35DUKE 4th & 14 at UNC 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−4.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−4.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:00UNC 4th & 3 at DUKE 23, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.1%−2.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−21.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:00DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:38UNC 4th & 4 at DUKE 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−19.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:57DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.7%−4.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:36UNC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:23UNC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:57DUKE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:37DUKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
62.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
62.2%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+4
62.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 24
-6
62.2%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
62.2%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 21 Michael Carter fumbled, forced by Dylan Singleton, recovered by NCaro Michael CarterSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
62.2%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
62.2%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
62.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
62.1%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 6
OWN 30
0
62.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
62.1%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+1
62.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+8
62.2%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
62.3%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4INT
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+34
62.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 34 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
62.6%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
62.5%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 49 Javonte Williams fumbled, recovered by NCaro Javonte WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+8
62.0%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Marquis Waters return for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:0538% → 40%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
61.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 15 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
61.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
61.2%
Aaron Young pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+17
61.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 17 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
60.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 20 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
60.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the NCaro 12Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
60.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+11
61.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
60.9%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
60.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the NCaro 5Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
60.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
61.1%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
60.4%
AJ Reed 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:4961% → 64%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
61.1%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
61.5%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+9
61.6%
Javonte Williams run for 9 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
61.9%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+4
61.9%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 25
-4
61.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+29
64.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 29 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Kim KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
63.1%
DUKE Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 1:36
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
63.2%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
63.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
63.7%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 1:36
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
64.2%
Austin Parker punt for 44 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0464% → 62%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
63.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Shaka Heyward for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+5
63.0%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 33
-5
62.5%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 28
+14
62.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 14 yds to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
62.1%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
62.4%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
62.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
61.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 20 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-6
60.8%
Quentin Harris sacked by Dominique Ross for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 32 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jason Strowbridge , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
63.6%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
63.4%
Antonio Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
64.6%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
63.7%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 11:41
3RD & 5
OWN 48
-2
64.2%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 11:41
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
62.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 25 yds, downed at the Duke 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
63.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
62.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+11
63.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
61.6%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
61.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
62.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Jeremiah GemmelSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
63.8%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:2065% → 64%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
64.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete, broken up by Chris Rumph IISimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
64.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+12
63.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
65.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 19 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
66.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+24
65.6%
Antonio Williams run for 24 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
67.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
67.4%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 27
-8
66.4%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 18
OPP 35
+52
63.7%
Jonathan Kim 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13INT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:5237% → 38%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
63.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
61.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+2
61.9%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 2:40
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
62.9%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
61.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 20 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
61.9%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Dominique Ross return for no gain to the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
66.3%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3766% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
65.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+16
65.2%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+17
66.5%
Michael Carter run for 17 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
79.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 47 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:2123% → 38%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+5
76.9%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+19
76.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 19 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.6%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
75.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+8
75.5%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-9
74.3%
Quentin Harris sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+25
76.4%
Deon Jackson run for 25 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
74.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
61.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 11 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
68.9%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Jalen Alexander return for 22 yds to the NCaro 7 Jalen Alexander fumbled, forced by Javonte Williams, recovered by DukeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q3 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
44.6%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:3851% → 61%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
51.4%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
52.7%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
55.2%
Antonio Williams run for 8 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
55.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
55.2%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
55.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 9 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
57.3%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+6
57.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
57.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Michael CarterSimilar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+6
57.2%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+2
55.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+34
60.9%
Noah Ruggles 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
54.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
52.4%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel and Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+8
55.5%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+6
53.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 1
50
-5
53.5%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
55.8%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rontavius Groves at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3758% → 55%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
58.4%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 14
-1
58.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 13
0
56.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 13
0
55.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jake Bobo at the Duke 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0049% → 43%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
51.2%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-5
50.4%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Rakavius Chambers) to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
53.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake Bobo, broken up by DeAndre HollinsSimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
54.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 14:11
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
56.8%
Austin Parker punt for 45 yds , Rontavius Groves returns for no gain to the NCaro 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
58.2%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
58.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-4
56.1%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 13Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 12
OWN 13
+7
55.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 47 yds , Jake Bobo returns for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 45%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.2%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+6
48.7%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
48.6%
Jalon Calhoun run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 46 Jalon Calhoun fumbled, forced by Jason Strowbridge, recovered by DukeSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 14
OPP 46
0
51.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 11:35
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
53.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
55.4%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25FG
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:4558% → 73%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+40
57.6%
Javonte Williams run for 40 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
50
0
63.1%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
50
+20
62.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 20 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
65.0%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+2
65.0%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
63.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Emery SimmonsSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
72.6%
Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
68.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
69.5%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27FUMBLE
10 plays · 73 yds · 3:3773% → 85%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
72.9%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
73.5%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
75.6%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+41
74.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 41 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
78.0%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
78.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q4 6:38
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
76.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+10
73.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
85.4%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the Duke 6 Javonte Williams fumbled, forced by Trevon McSwain, recovered by Duke Shaka HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28INT
21 plays · 92 yds · 2:3729% → 22%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
71.2%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OWN 15
+4
70.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
70.1%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
70.3%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+4
76.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+18
77.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 18 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
70.0%
Harris,Q. deep pass incomplete to Young,A. (Ross, G), PENALTY NC pass interference (Ross, G) 15 yards to the NC41, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
66.2%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
71.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Allen CaterSimilar
Q4 1:17
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
73.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+14
82.9%
Harris,Q. rush up middle for no gain to the NC32, PENALTY NC face mask (Cater, A) 14 yards to the NC18, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
76.4%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
77.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+15
81.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 15 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
76.4%
Harris,Q. pass incomplete to Bracey,S. (Hollins, D), PENALTY NC pass interference (Hollins, D) 1 yards to the NC2, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+3
77.7%
Deon Jackson pass intercepted Chazz Surratt return for 3 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:37
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-24.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:14
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 2
+18.1
TD · Q3 13:23
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 47 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com