2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · Steven Sawicki punt for 45 yds , Andrew Strader returns for 9 yds to the BC 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:43: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 22 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:59: AJ Dillon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +1.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:29: Travis Etienne run for 4 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:07: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:38: Travis Etienne run for 5 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
- Q1 14:27BC 4th & 3 at BC 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.3%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 10:53CLEM 4th & 5 at BC 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.3%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%92% to makePunt96.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:04BC 4th & 7 at BC 38, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q1 5:47BC 4th & 6 at BC 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q1 3:01BC 4th & 1 at CLEM 36, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.7%71% to convertField goal2.4%−0.342% to makePunt2.4%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:00BC 4th & 2 at CLEM 15, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%56% to convertField goal2.7%−0.183% to makePunt1.7%−1.0average punt
- Q2 8:46BC 4th & 9 at BC 40, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 3:32BC 4th & 25 at BC 25, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 8:09BC 4th & 11 at BC 34, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:26CLEM 4th & 10 at BC 30, up 45Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%56% to makePunt99.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 3:01BC 4th & 6 at BC 34, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:11BC 4th & 1 at BC 34, down 52Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:41CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 19, up 52Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:03BC 4th & 7 at CLEM 48, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 6:07CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 40, up 52Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:32BC 4th & 7 at BC 46, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 0:50CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 34, up 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call100.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:57CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:43CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:59BC Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.0%97% to makeGo for two4.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:29CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.6%97% to makeGo for two96.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:07CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:38CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:00CLEM Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:37CLEM Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:282% → 2%
Q1 14:27
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
98.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FG9 plays · 65 yds · 3:2798% → 98%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
98.3%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jason Maitre) to the Clem 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
98.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 10 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
98.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 11 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:412% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5898% → 98%
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
97.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 14 yds to the Clem 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
97.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Mike Palmer) to the BC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
97.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Sebastian) to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
97.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Luke Price for 14 yds to the BC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:562% → 2%
Q1 5:47
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+6
97.6%
Grant Carlson punt for 52 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 6 yds to the Clem 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3998% → 98%
BCDrive 7TD16 plays · 75 yds · 5:262% → 3%
CLEMDrive 8TD10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0397% → 98%
Q2 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+24
96.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 24 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:313% → 3%
CLEMDrive 10TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q2 8:00
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
97.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joe Ngata for 4 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
97.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 19 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+15
97.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 15 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
98.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 0 yds · 2:152% → 2%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-9
98.2%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 9 yards to the BC 29 AJ Dillon fumbled, recovered by BC Dennis Grosel Dennis Grosel run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 21
OWN 29
-4
98.3%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Jordan Williams and K.J. Henry for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 25Similar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 25
OWN 25
0
98.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 25 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Derion Kendrick) to the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD10 plays · 84 yds · 2:2199% → 100%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
98.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 6 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+10
98.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joe Ngata for 10 yds to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+18
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 18 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14PUNT3 plays · 0 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
BCDrive 15FUMBLE TD4 plays · 13 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+39
99.7%
Dennis Grosel sacked by Chad Smith for a loss of 16 yards Dennis Grosel fumbled, recovered by Clem Logan Rudolph , return for 0 yards , return for 39 yds, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:200% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17TD3 plays · 80 yds · 0:36100% → 100%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
99.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for 63 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:360% → 0%
Q3 8:09
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Justyn Ross at the Clem 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19MISSED FG11 plays · 53 yds · 3:24100% → 100%
Q3 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+19
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 19 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q3 3:01
4TH & 6
OWN 34
-6
99.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 56 yds , Justyn Ross returns for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21TD11 plays · 96 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q3 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darien Rencher for 10 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to T.J. Chase for 9 yds to the BC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Cornell Powell for 6 yds to the BC 41Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Diondre Overton for 34 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
100.0%
Matt Valecce pass complete to Zay Flowers for 5 yds to the BC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
99.9%
CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Frank Ladson Jr.) to the Clem 7Similar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Steven Sawicki punt for 40 yds , Kobay White returns for no gain to the BC 19 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh DeBerry) to the BC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 2:270% → 0%
CLEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 6:07
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+30
100.0%
Steven Sawicki punt for 47 yds , Andrew Strader returns for 30 yds to the BC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:29
Travis Etienne run for 4 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+1.5
TD · Q2 6:07
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 19 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 13:59
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-1