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UNC

North Carolina 41 at Virginia Tech 43

VT
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2OTQ3Q4OTQ4OTTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:25 · Chazz Surratt punt
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeoutsScore differential
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2OTQ3Q4OTQ4OTPlay 134Home team on offense−7.3Pregame prior−2.8Time remaining−1.3Defense timeouts+0.1Offense timeouts+0.0Score differential−3.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:27: Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +14.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:11: Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 68 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +35.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 4:31: Quincy Patterson II run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +39.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Brian Johnson 38 Yd Field Goal — VT win probability +16.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Noah Ruggles 29 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +33.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:47UNC 4th & 9 at VT 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:47VT 4th & 4 at VT 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:13UNC 4th & 6 at VT 40, up 10
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    62.4%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:52UNC 4th & 5 at VT 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:10VT 4th & 7 at VT 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:05UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00VT 4th & 4 at VT 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:27VT 4th & 21 at UNC 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:35UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−5.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:25UNC 4th & 2 at VT 49, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:29VT 4th & 5 at UNC 5, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−18.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:01UNC 4th & 19 at UNC 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−11.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:25VT 4th & 2 at VT 49, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.1 ptsPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%−5.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:31UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:45VT 4th & 2 at VT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−1.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:13UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−13.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 14:12UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:02VT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:55UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:29VT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:19VT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:27UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:11UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:31VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−1.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:4260% → 60%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Chamarri ConnerSimilar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+28
39.8%
Michael Carter run for 28 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
39.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the VTech 47Similar
Q1 14:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+47
39.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 47 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
39.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 8 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+4
39.8%
Dalton Keene run for 4 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
39.8%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 34 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jason StrowbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2061% → 61%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
39.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
39.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+23
39.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 23 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
39.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jordan Tucker) to the VTech 13Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
39.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+4
39.6%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the VTech 9Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
39.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q1 10:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
39.3%
Noah Ruggles 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
39.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
39.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 3 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
39.6%
Tayvion Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
39.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+5
39.4%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 5 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
39.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 55 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 57 yds · 4:5661% → 63%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
38.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
38.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+11
39.1%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
38.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+8
38.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 8 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+3
38.8%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
38.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, PENALTY VT HD (Jermaine Waller) 10 yards to the NC45, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY, clock 04:06.Similar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
37.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 11 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
37.6%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
37.6%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
37.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
37.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0137% → 44%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
36.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
36.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 10 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
37.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+3
37.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
43.8%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 55 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:1058% → 58%
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.9%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
41.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
41.5%
Antonio Williams run for 17 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
40.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
40.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
41.3%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
41.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4843% → 42%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+9
42.5%
Hendon Hooker run for 9 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 1
OWN 16
+13
42.7%
Hendon Hooker run for 13 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
42.9%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
43.3%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
42.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
41.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 3:5958% → 68%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
42.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
42.1%
Michael Carter rush left for loss of 1 yard to the NC30 (Jarrod Hewitt;Eli Adams), PENALTY VT offside defense (Eli Adams) 6 yards to the NC37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 4
OWN 37
0
41.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+12
41.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
41.1%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the VATECH 35 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Dyami Brown) to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+10
40.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
40.4%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+26
40.9%
Michael Carter run for 26 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 9
OPP 0
+10
31.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds for a TD VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the VTech 0, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2633% → 47%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
33.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tre Turner for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
33.8%
Hendon Hooker run for 4 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
33.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
34.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to James MitchellSimilar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
34.3%
Hendon Hooker run for 10 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
34.6%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Tre Turner, PENALTY NC pass interference (Myles Dorn) 15 yards to the NC24, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY, clock 04:46.Similar
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
35.6%
Dalton Keene run for 2 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+20
35.6%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to James Mitchell for 20 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
47.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2458% → 57%
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
41.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Jarrod Hewitt and Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 16 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, intentional grounding (Sam Howell) to the NCaro 16Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 19
OWN 16
0
42.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+10
43.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 10 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 3:05
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
43.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:3942% → 58%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Storm DuckSimilar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+24
41.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 24 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
44.7%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Dalton Keene for 18 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
46.1%
Dalton Keene run for 5 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Jason Strowbridge) to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
46.1%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
46.1%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 0:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
57.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.0%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 80%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
85.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+1
85.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+4
84.5%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+18
80.1%
Damon Hazelton 18 Yd pass from Quincy Patterson II (Brian Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 6 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-2
55.8%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
53.8%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:4846% → 64%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.3%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
54.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+9
55.6%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
52.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
50.7%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
51.4%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+43
50.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 43 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
36.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 6 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
42.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
50
-5
46.4%
Ryan Willis sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 45Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+8
43.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+19
45.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 19 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
48.2%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-1
48.2%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OPP 27
-12
46.3%
Ryan Willis sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 12 yards to the NCaro 39 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, intentional grounding (Ryan Willis) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 21
OPP 39
0
40.8%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:3360% → 57%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
40.1%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
39.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green, broken up by Jermaine WallerSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-8
41.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Norell Pollard for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+9
42.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 52 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for 9 yds to the VTech 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
45.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 5 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
46.6%
Quincy Patterson II run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:40
3RD & 2
50
+7
46.0%
Dalton Keene run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43 Dalton Keene fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro D.J. FordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1163% → 61%
Q3 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
36.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 3
50
+1
35.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
36.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
38.8%
Chazz Surratt puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:4947% → 57%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
46.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Reggie Floyd) to the VTech 34Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
42.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 0:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
45.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+12
41.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 12 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
46.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
47.3%
Dalton Keene run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+10
46.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
47.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+11
50.1%
Quincy Patterson II run for 11 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
49.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Damon Hazelton for 14 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
49.0%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
49.0%
Quincy Patterson II sacked by Xach Gill for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 8Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
46.1%
Damon Hazelton run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
56.6%
Brian Johnson 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Damon Hazelton, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-2
64.5%
Quincy Patterson II run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+4
60.4%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
58.2%
Brian Johnson 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2850% → 46%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
49.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-6
50.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Jarrod Hewitt for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 19
OWN 16
0
52.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
54.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2958% → 57%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
58.4%
Quincy Patterson II run for 3 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
59.5%
Dalton Keene run for 3 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+2
58.4%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
56.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0651% → 86%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
49.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+11
49.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
13.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 68 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4021% → 61%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
21.0%
Quincy Patterson II pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 22 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
60.9%
Quincy Patterson II run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
49.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
47.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
47.2%
Antonio Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
51.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3657% → 54%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
57.1%
Tre Turner run for 7 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
61.2%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-1
59.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 39 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTech Quincy Patterson IISimilar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
54.4%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 0:2552% → 44%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
48.1%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q4 0:28
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
48.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Norell Pollard for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 0:21
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-3
53.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 0:13
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
55.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, downed at the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
64.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31MISSED FG
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0065% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
64.7%
Dalton Keene run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
-5
62.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Doug Nester) to the NCaro 25Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+1
61.8%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
57.8%
Brian Johnson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 32FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0065% → 79%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Quincy Patterson II pass incomplete to Tre Turner, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.5%
Quincy Patterson II run for 4 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+1
62.4%
Quincy Patterson II run for 1 yd to the NCaro 20Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+38
79.3%
Brian Johnson 38 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 33FG
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:0029% → 49%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
70.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the VTech 17Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
70.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
-5
74.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+10
77.7%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the VTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
70.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete, broken up by Reggie FloydSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
70.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Jarrod Hewitt for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+1
79.2%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the VTech 12Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
51.5%
Noah Ruggles 29 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 35TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
40.5%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
40.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+14
43.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 14 yds to the VTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
40.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
40.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete, broken up by Khalil LadlerSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
43.0%
Beau Corrales 8 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 37MISSED FG
10 plays · 8 yds · 0:0026% → 14%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
74.1%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the VTech 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
74.1%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+6
78.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
74.1%
Javonte Williams rush up middle for 8 yards to the VT7 (Reggie Floyd), PENALTY NC holding (Joshua Ezeudu) 10 yards to the VT25, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 20
OPP 25
+3
77.3%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+2
77.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 20Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+3
82.7%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+35
86.3%
Noah Ruggles 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 38MISSED FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 14%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
74.1%
Dazz Newsome run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
74.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine GreenSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
79.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
-5
85.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 27Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+44
86.4%
Noah Ruggles 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jermaine WallerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:31
Quincy Patterson II run for 53 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
+39.9
TD · Q4 5:11
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 68 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-35.5
FG · OT 0:00
Noah Ruggles 29 Yd Field Goal
-33.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com