2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:10 · Pressley Harvin III pass complete to Nathan Cottrell for 41 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:10: Pressley Harvin III pass complete to Nathan Cottrell for 41 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +3.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:37: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 19 yds for a TD, (Turner Davidson KICK) — MIA win probability +2.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:53: James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 35 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +12.1 pts (now 27%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:26: Jamious Griffin run for 6 yds to the GTech 26 — GT win probability +11.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Tied - offense's timeout count is neutral here).
- TD · OT 0:00: Jordan Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brenton King KICK) — GT win probability +14.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00GT 4th & 1 at GT 34, tiedClose callPunted · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.5%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.5%−0.1average punt
- Q1 6:17GT 4th & 16 at GT 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q1 0:10GT 4th & 7 at MIA 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.9%37% to convertField goal13.6%−0.332% to makePunt13.7%−0.2average punt
- Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 17 at GT 37, tiedClose callPunted · 83.3% before the snapGo for it83.2%−0.315% to convertField goal83.4%40% to makePuntTheir call83.4%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:21GT 4th & 15 at GT 1, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 16.7% before the snapGo for it15.8%−1.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.0%average punt
- Q2 10:37GT 4th & 11 at GT 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snapGo for it13.6%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.1%average punt
- Q2 4:15MIA 4th & 4 at GT 17, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.3%47% to convertField goalTheir call85.2%−0.280% to makePunt82.5%−2.9average punt
- Q3 15:00MIA 4th & 21 at GT 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snapGo for it75.2%−1.59% to convertField goal76.7%−0.142% to makePuntTheir call76.8%average punt
- Q3 3:57GT 4th & 12 at MIA 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snapGo for it31.3%−0.824% to convertField goal31.5%−0.534% to makePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q3 3:50MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 28, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 68.3% before the snapGo for it70.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.0%−1.3average punt
- Q4 11:57GT 4th & 1 at MIA 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.4%71% to convertField goal33.0%−7.445% to makePunt31.0%−9.5average punt
- Q4 5:41MIA 4th & 9 at GT 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.7% before the snapGo for it58.2%−2.325% to convertField goalTheir call60.5%89% to makePunt39.4%−21.1average punt
- Q4 5:41GT 4th & 4 at GT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snapGo for it40.5%−1.547% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q4 0:26MIA 4th & 7 at GT 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snapGo for it52.7%−8.729% to convertField goalTheir call61.5%90% to makePunt25.2%−36.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:17MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:04MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.7%97% to makeGo for two86.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:10GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.0%97% to makeGo for two16.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:37MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.0%97% to makeGo for two85.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:53GT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call21.5%97% to makeGo for two21.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartGTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2FUMBLE TD3 plays · -9 yds · 0:4990% → 89%
Q1 12:35
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
88.9%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Demetrius Knight II for a loss of 11 yards N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by GTech Ja'Quon Griffin , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD15 plays · 64 yds · 6:1889% → 87%
Q1 12:35
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
89.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+17
88.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 17 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
89.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+4
89.0%
Perry, N. pass incomplete to Wiggins, D., PENALTY GT pass interference (Swilling, T.) 4 yards to the GT2, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+10
87.2%
Baxa, B. kickoff 65 yards to the GT0, touchback, PENALTY GT illegal block (King, J.) 10 yards to the UM45, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.2%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 1 yd to the GTech 28Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-7
87.3%
James Graham sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 16
OPP 0
0
87.2%
Harvin, P. punt 51 yards to the UM28, Osborn, K. return to the UM33 (Smith, Devin), PENALTY GT illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY UM roughing the kicker off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 16
OWN 21
+52
87.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 13 , K.J. Osborn returns for 52 yds to the GTech 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5TD1 play · 13 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
88.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 13 yds for a TD, (Turner Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5412% → 15%
Q1 4:04
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-10
87.8%
Oliver, T. rush for 7 yards to the UM34, out-of-bounds (Knowles, R.), PENALTY GT holding 10 yards to the GT49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+10
88.0%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 10 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+41
84.7%
Pressley Harvin III pass complete to Nathan Cottrell for 41 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:1086% → 85%
GTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
MIADrive 9TD4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2986% → 88%
Q2 10:37
3RD & 9
OPP 19
+19
87.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 19 yds for a TD, (Turner Davidson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 55 yds · 4:4187% → 87%
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
87.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 6 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+14
87.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 14 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+14
87.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 14 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
3RD & 4
OPP 17
0
87.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Mike Harley, broken up by Kaleb OliverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:2213% → 27%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.6%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
85.2%
Mason, J. rush for 1 yard to the UM39 (TEAM), PENALTY UM offside (Bethel, P.) 5 yards to the UM35, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
73.1%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 35 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13END OF HALF3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
MIADrive 14PUNT10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.3%
Perry, N. pass incomplete to Osborn, K., PENALTY GT holding (Swilling, T.) 8 yards to the UM33, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+12
80.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
80.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Cam'Ron Harris, broken up by David CurrySimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-11
80.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Jordan Domineck for a loss of 11 yards to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15PUNT17 plays · 56 yds · 7:5126% → 31%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
74.2%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the GTech 5 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
72.9%
James Graham pass incomplete to Jamious Griffin, broken up by Trevon HillSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-1
71.0%
James Graham pass complete to Tobias Oliver for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 8
50
+12
71.9%
James Graham pass complete to Tobias Oliver for 12 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 11
OPP 39
-5
71.0%
James Graham sacked by Pat Bethel for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 11:48
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+10
73.4%
James Graham pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 10 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q3 3:50
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
71.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17FUMBLE17 plays · 72 yds · 5:1531% → 41%
Q3 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+20
69.0%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 20 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
63.2%
James Graham pass complete to Jamious Griffin for 5 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 14
OPP 23
-1
58.7%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 23 Jordan Mason fumbled, forced by Shaquille Quarterman, recovered by MiaFl Shaquille QuartermanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18MISSED FG8 plays · 68 yds · 3:0567% → 67%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
73.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 17 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+8
73.6%
Perry, N. pass incomplete to Jordan, B., PENALTY GT holding (Swilling, T.) 8 yards to the GT8, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
71.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Tre SwillingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.8%
James Graham pass incomplete to Adonicas Sanders, broken up by Shaquille QuartermanSimilar
Q4 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-10
59.2%
Graham, J. pass complete to Sanders, A. for 12 yards to the GT36 (Bolden, B.), PENALTY GT holding (Quinney, Z.) 10 yards to the GT14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:41
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
60.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 49 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 67 yds · 3:3763% → 62%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+50
63.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 50 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+4
71.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 4 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
65.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Christian CampbellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21END OF GAME11 plays · 0 yds · 15:2650% → 23%
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
24.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brevin Jordan, broken up by Antwan OwensSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+12
20.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 12 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+5
28.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the GTech 8Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+3
23.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 3 yds to the GTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-23.1
TD · OT 0:00
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q2 0:53
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 35 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)
-12.1