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FSU

Florida State 20 at Wake Forest 22

WAKE
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:13 · Ricky Aguayo 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+20.0+10.00−10.0−20.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 205Pregame prior−0.3Home team on offense+4.7Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Garbage-time factor+0.2Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:21: Cam Akers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.5 pts (now 55%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:08: James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +14.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:25: Cade Carney run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +17.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:22: James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 36 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FSU win probability +19.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:18: Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +20.6 pts (now 76%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 13FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:50WAKE 4th & 3 at FSU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.9%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:50FSU 4th & 2 at WAKE 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    55.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    55.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:30FSU 4th & 2 at WAKE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.7%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:47WAKE 4th & 5 at FSU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    45.1%−2.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:47FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 23, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52WAKE 4th & 7 at FSU 7, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−3.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:23FSU 4th & 14 at FSU 24, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:15WAKE 4th & 7 at FSU 9, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−4.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:09WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 33, up 5
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:17WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 27, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−2.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:37WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:20FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    52.8%−3.9
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:16WAKE 4th & 2 at WAKE 20, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%−1.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:07FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 47, up 2
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−0.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:47WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 46, down 2
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:24FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 32, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−7.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:49WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:37FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 23, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−4.9
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:18WAKE 4th & 1 at FSU 7, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−5.9
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−27.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:13FSU 4th & 6 at WAKE 33, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−5.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−11.9
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:40WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 42, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:21FSU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:08FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:25WAKE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:22FSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    56.3%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:1043% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.5%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
42.5%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
42.5%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+10
42.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 10 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
42.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 31 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, targeting (Hamsah Nasirildeen) to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
42.5%
Sam Hartman run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.5%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q1 12:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
43.5%
Nick Sciba 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2DOWNS
18 plays · 41 yds · 4:2057% → 55%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria Wilson, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
43.4%
Akers,C rush for 3 yards to the FS28 (Redd, T;Rucker, T), PENALTY FS holding (Lucas,D) 10 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+12
43.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 12 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
43.5%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
43.3%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
43.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
43.4%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
43.2%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
43.2%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+6
43.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 12:50
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+4
43.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 4 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
43.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 47Similar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
43.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+5
43.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+8
44.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 8:30
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
44.8%
James Blackman run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3FG
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:2245% → 49%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
45.2%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
45.1%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+36
45.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 36 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
46.1%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
46.1%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
46.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+2
45.8%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+25
48.8%
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
48.0%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 14
+9
48.2%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
48.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+5
48.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 44 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 5 yds to the WFrst 28 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 3:3549% → 52%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
49.4%
Sam Hartman run for 9 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
50.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
50.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 27 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
50.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 7 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+5
50.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
50.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+1
50.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
50.3%
Hartman, S pass incomplete to Hinton, K, PENALTY FS personal foul (Taylor,L) 9 yards to the FS9, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
50.7%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
50.7%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
52.3%
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3147% → 55%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
52.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 16 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
52.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+32
52.2%
Cam Akers run for 32 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+19
50.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 19 yds to the WFrst 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
50.6%
Blackman,J pass incomplete to McKitty,T, PENALTY WF roughing passer (Strnad, J) 3 yards to the WF2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 24Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
47.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+8
46.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 62 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 8 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
48.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 11 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
47.9%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
47.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. Matthews, broken up by Traveon ReddSimilar
Q2 12:23
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-7
48.5%
James Blackman sacked by JaCorey Johns for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 12:23
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
49.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FG
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3149% → 54%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
49.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+51
50.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 51 yds to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
51.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+1
51.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
50.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
54.1%
Nick Sciba 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10INT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0050% → 53%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.4%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
49.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+10
50.0%
Blackman,J deep pass incomplete to Harrison,T (Taylor, J), PENALTY WF holding (Henderson, A) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
50
+6
48.4%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
48.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
48.4%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+9
47.3%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
47.3%
James Blackman pass intercepted Chase Monroe return for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
55.4%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 17
-1
55.3%
Sam Hartman run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 16Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+9
54.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 9 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
55.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 7 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
55.6%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
54.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 54 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 3:4846% → 58%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
53.7%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
53.4%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 32
-1
51.5%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+4
53.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
52.5%
James Blackman run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+2
50.8%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
51.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 27 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
48.9%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
49.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
48.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-2
48.9%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 19Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
42.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5146% → 45%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
45.6%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.4%
Sam Hartman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.2%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
45.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 63 yds, downed at the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
46.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0056% → 54%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
43.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 7 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
43.0%
James Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
44.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
45.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
46.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 5 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+7
45.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 7 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
49.1%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
47.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
48.3%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 13:37
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
46.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FUMBLE
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0058% → 60%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
42.3%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
44.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 5 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
43.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 7 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+7
43.5%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
41.0%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+6
41.0%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
41.1%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
40.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+12
40.2%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
39.8%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the WFrst 16Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+4
39.8%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the WFrst 12 Cam Akers fumbled, forced by Ja'Cquez Williams, recovered by WFrst Sulaiman KamaraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
46.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+3
46.1%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 2
OWN 20
0
44.7%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Christian Beal-SmithSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
43.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 49 yds, downed at the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
44.2%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 10 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
42.3%
Khalan Laborn run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
42.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+7
44.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 7:07
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
44.5%
Tommy Martin punt for 36 yds , Steven Claude returns for no gain to the WFrst 21 Steven Claude fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0046% → 47%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
46.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete, broken up by Dennis Briggs Jr.Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+19
45.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 19 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
49.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
49.7%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
49.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Asante Samuel Jr.Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
47.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 54%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
43.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
43.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+12
43.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
40.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Andrew Boselli) to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+4
43.1%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-5
42.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Darius Washington) to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 3:24
2ND & 16
OWN 32
0
43.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q3 3:24
3RD & 16
OWN 32
0
45.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 3:24
4TH & 16
OWN 32
0
46.1%
Tommy Martin punt for 31 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for no gain to the WFrst 39 Kendall Hinton fumbled, recovered by WFrst Kendall HintonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3549% → 72%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+36
48.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 36 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
53.6%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
53.6%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+14
51.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 14 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
53.9%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
71.8%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0336% → 60%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
63.4%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
62.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+15
63.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
50
0
58.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 10
50
+6
60.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 14:25
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+8
59.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
40.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 36 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:3347% → 45%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
46.5%
Sam Hartman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
47.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt, broken up by Marvin WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
44.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
45.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 61 yds, downed at the FlaSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
45.0%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
44.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for no gain to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+7
46.8%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 10:37
4TH & 1
OWN 23
0
47.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 46 yds, downed at the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2750% → 76%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
50.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 5 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
53.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 5 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
54.1%
Hartman, S deep pass incomplete to Washington, S (Samuel,A), PENALTY FS pass interference (Samuel,A) 15 yards to the FS44, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
55.9%
Sam Hartman run for no gain to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
55.5%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+13
51.8%
Cade Carney run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
58.5%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 15 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
58.5%
Sam Hartman run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+1
58.5%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+6
55.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 6 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 4:18
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
76.4%
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27MISSED FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 2:0534% → 34%
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+38
66.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 23 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, roughing passer (Tyler Williams) to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
59.2%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
57.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+2
59.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 2 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 2:13
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+50
66.2%
Ricky Aguayo 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3378% → 90%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
78.1%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+5
79.7%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+1
79.1%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
90.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-6
85.0%
James Blackman run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 18 James Blackman fumbled, recovered by FlaSt James BlackmanSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 16
OWN 18
-6
85.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 12 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt James BlackmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 4:18
Nick Sciba 25 yd FG GOOD
+20.6
TD · Q4 11:22
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 36 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-19
TD · Q4 14:25
Cade Carney run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com