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DUKE

Duke 14 at Virginia 48

UVA
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:46 · Austin Parker punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Home team on offense−0.4Score differential−1.0Pregame prior+10.9Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:10: Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +5.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:56: Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +12.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 13:55: Brian Delaney 33 yd FG GOOD — UVA win probability +8.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:13: Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +4.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:43: AJ Reed kickoff for 60 yds , Joe Reed return for 95 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at DUKE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:26DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:03UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:19UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:46DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:01UVA 4th & 2 at DUKE 13, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%−0.7
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:01DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    29.3%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:56UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:55UVA 4th & 5 at DUKE 16, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    76.5%−7.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:55DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 35, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:13DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:13DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 42, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:54DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 48, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:34UVA 4th & 5 at DUKE 16, up 41
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 25, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6DUKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:10UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:56UVA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:13UVA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:57DUKE Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:43UVA Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:13UVA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:54UVA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:41DUKE Touchdown, down 35 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1INT
13 plays · 45 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+4
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 4 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
64.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 5 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 29
0
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+16
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 16 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
64.0%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Duke 11Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted, touchback. Leonard Johnson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
63.5%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
63.1%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
63.3%
Jalon Calhoun run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
63.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 8:26
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+3
63.4%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 8:26
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
63.6%
Austin Parker punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
63.3%
Joe Reed run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 14
OWN 20
0
63.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+5
62.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+6
62.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 47 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 6 yds to the Duke 31 DUKE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
63.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+2
63.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 6
OWN 28
0
63.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Mandy AlonsoSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+2
63.6%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for 2 yds to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
63.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for no gain to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
63.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
62.7%
Nash Griffin punt for 32 yds, downed at the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
62.1%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 1:46
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-1
61.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
62.5%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:46
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
63.0%
Austin Parker punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:2063% → 70%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
63.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
63.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+13
62.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 13 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
64.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 23 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
64.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 19 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
64.9%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
64.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.9%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Zane ZandierSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-9
68.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 29 DUKE Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+9
68.7%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 11:10
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.1%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Brenton Nelson return for 17 yds to the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:1371% → 71%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
70.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
70.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 4 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
70.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
71.1%
Brian Delaney 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 8:01
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
71.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 8:01
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.4%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
10 plays · 34 yds · 5:1273% → 85%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
73.0%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+13
72.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 13 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+7
72.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
73.0%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Chatman, T, PENALTY DU OF (Rumph,C.) 5 yards to the DU15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 5
OPP 15
-5
73.0%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Victor Dimukeje and Tahj Rice for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
73.0%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+12
72.3%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Dubois, H, PENALTY DU pass interference (Johnson,L.) 12 yards to the DU2, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
73.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
73.0%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:5017% → 17%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
83.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 7 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+8
80.9%
Quentin Harris run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
50
0
82.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo Durant, broken up by Zane ZandierSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
50
-2
83.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for a loss of 2 yards Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Noah Taylor, recovered by Virg Mandy AlonsoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
87.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
86.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
86.0%
Nash Griffin punt for 34 yds, downed at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
84.3%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
84.7%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 21 Deon Jackson fumbled, recovered by Virg Charles SnowdenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0286% → 94%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
85.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe Reed, broken up by Jeremiah LewisSimilar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
85.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 5
OPP 16
0
85.3%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
93.7%
Brian Delaney 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
92.8%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
92.4%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
92.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 3 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
92.9%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 4:0494% → 99%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+6
94.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.4%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
94.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 7 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+22
94.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 22 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
94.5%
Tavares Kelly Jr. run for 17 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
94.5%
Bryce Perkins run for 11 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:161% → 5%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+5
99.0%
Austin Parker run for 5 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
99.1%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
99.0%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
99.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 5
OWN 42
+12
99.0%
Austin Parker run for 12 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+9
99.0%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
95.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 36 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
99.4%
Quentin Harris sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 21 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by Virg Eli Hanback , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:41100% → 100%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.6%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.6%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Brissett, D, PENALTY DU pass interference (Lewis,J.) 15 yards to the DU6, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
99.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+15
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 15 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+20
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Joey Blount return for 20 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24TD
2 plays · 40 yds · 0:13100% → 100%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+31
99.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 31 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 9 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+10
99.8%
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Chris Katrenick run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr., broken up by De'Vante CrossSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Jake Marwede for 7 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Chris Katrenick pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Lamont Atkins run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+12
99.9%
Lindell Stone pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 12 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
99.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+7
99.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
99.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+2
99.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-1
99.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+5
99.8%
Lindell Stone pass intercepted Jalen Alexander return for 20 yds to the Duke 0 VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Dontayvion Wicks) to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
99.9%
Elijah Deveaux run for 7 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Chris Katrenick run for no gain to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+3
99.9%
Elijah Deveaux run for 3 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Elijah Deveaux run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
99.9%
Katrenick,C. pass incomplete to Harding,D., PENALTY VA personal foul (Faumui, A) 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Elijah Deveaux run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+8
99.9%
Eli Pancol run for 8 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.9%
Chris Katrenick run for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Eli Pancol for 23 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
99.9%
Elijah Deveaux run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
100.0%
Elijah Deveaux run for 3 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 25
0
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Virg 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:56
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
+12.1
FG · Q3 13:55
Brian Delaney 33 yd FG GOOD
+8.4
TD · Q2 11:10
Bryce Perkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com