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LOU

Louisville 62 at Wake Forest 59

WAKE
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-6.3WAKE 1.9%Evan Conley pass complete to DezFitzpatrick for 50 yds for a TD,(Blanton Creque KICK)AWAY 52 - HOME 31 · Q4 9:14
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:14 · Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 50 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Home team on offense−46.7Pregame prior+2.9Score differential−27.4Garbage-time factor−9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 14:38: Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +15.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:54: Hassan Hall run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +19.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:37: Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +32.4 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 2:15: Evan Conley run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +15.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:10: Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +29.3 pts (now 35%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:30LOU 4th & 8 at WAKE 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:28WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:45WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−1.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:21LOU 4th & 9 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:10WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:06LOU 4th & 1 at WAKE 14, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−1.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−6.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:38WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−2.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:10WAKE 4th & 4 at LOU 16, down 17
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.4%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−10.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:10LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00LOU 4th & 5 at WAKE 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:19WAKE 4th & 18 at WAKE 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−2.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:35LOU 4th & 16 at WAKE 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.1%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:15LOU 4th & 1 at WAKE 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%−10.4
    32% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−10.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:28LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:34LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:59WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 1:45LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 14:50LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 12:26WAKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 10:15WAKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:38LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:38WAKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:54LOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:14LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:19WAKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:12WAKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 3:37WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.0%
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 2:15LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 1:10WAKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.9 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%−2.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
68.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 20Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
68.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
68.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+17
68.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 17 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
68.7%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+3
68.7%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+32
68.5%
Micale Cunningham run for 32 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
68.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 12
50
0
68.4%
Micale Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 12
50
+4
68.4%
Micale Cunningham run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
68.5%
Mason King punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
68.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
68.3%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 28 Cade Carney fumbled, forced by Rodjay Burns, recovered by Lvile Yasir AbdullahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:3532% → 35%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
67.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+14
67.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 14 yds to the WFrst 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
67.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
65.5%
Javian Hawkins 8 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
66.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 22 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
66.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
66.6%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall Hinton, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
66.4%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
66.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 92 yds · 3:0235% → 40%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+9
65.5%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 9 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 1
OWN 17
-3
65.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+7
65.6%
Micale Cunningham run for 7 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
65.4%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+17
65.1%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Keion Wakefield for 17 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
64.9%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+55
59.6%
Seth Dawkins 55 Yd pass from Micale Cunningham (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:3561% → 64%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
60.9%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
61.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 6 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
61.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 6 yds Scotty Washington fumbled, forced by Anthony Johnson, recovered by WFrst Cade CarneySimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+8
61.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 8 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
61.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
61.7%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+9
61.7%
Jamie Newman run for 9 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
62.0%
Newman, J deep pass incomplete to Surratt, S, PENALTY WF holding (Herron, J) 10 yards to the UL43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 20
OPP 43
+1
61.5%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 19
OPP 42
0
61.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 19
OPP 42
+25
61.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 25 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
62.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
63.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.7%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
56.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
56.4%
Jamie Newman sacked by Monty Montgomery for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 18 Jamie Newman fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+50
56.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds , Tutu Atwell returns for 50 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:3246% → 57%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
53.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the WFrst 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
53.2%
Tutu Atwell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
43.3%
Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 2:2446% → 54%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
45.8%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
45.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+10
45.8%
Newman, J sideline pass incomplete to Surratt, S, PENALTY UL holding (Johnson, A.) 10 yards to the WF41, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
46.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 17 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
47.3%
Newman, J deep pass incomplete to Claude, S (Jones, C.), PENALTY UL pass interference (Jones, C.) 15 yards to the UL23, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
47.7%
Cade Carney run for 15 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
47.7%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
51.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+35
51.0%
Micale Cunningham run for 12 yds to the Lvile 4 Micale Cunningham fumbled, forced by Nasir Greer, recovered by WFrst Traveon Redd , return for 35 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:1453% → 60%
Q2 11:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
52.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.6%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.0%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:5443% → 45%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+28
57.5%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 28 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
55.8%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
55.6%
Evan Conley pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 4 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
55.9%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 4
OPP 45
-5
54.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 9
50
0
54.8%
Mason King punt for 48 yds, downed at the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
53.7%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 3Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+13
53.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 13 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
54.3%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
54.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
53.2%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q2 8:10
4TH & 11
OWN 15
0
52.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 4:3650% → 54%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
50.2%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+15
50.7%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 15 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
50.0%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 34Similar
Q2 6:42
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
50.1%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 11
OPP 34
-5
48.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 39Similar
Q2 4:48
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+16
50.1%
Evan Conley run for 16 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
47.8%
Evan Conley run for 6 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
47.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 1
OPP 14
0
45.9%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 2:06
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+32
46.2%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17INT
12 plays · 62 yds · 0:0048% → 51%
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
47.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 13 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
48.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 15
OWN 33
-5
47.5%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+7
47.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 7 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+25
47.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 25 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
49.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 8 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
51.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
51.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 8 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+6
51.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
51.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
51.4%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted Yasir Abdullah return for 7 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
44.8%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-2
44.9%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
27.6%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 15 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
31.3%
Cade Carney run for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q3 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
31.4%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 14:38
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-6
31.1%
Jamie Newman sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 14:38
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
30.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0072% → 73%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
28.3%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 16 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
27.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 11 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
26.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
26.6%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Ryan Smenda Jr.Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
26.9%
Evan Conley pass intercepted Nasir Greer return for no gain to the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 1:4327% → 41%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
27.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+10
27.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
27.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+3
29.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
29.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
29.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
41.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 47 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:4461% → 83%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
38.7%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
37.4%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+3
38.7%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+10
38.5%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 10 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+33
37.3%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 33 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
36.7%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the WFrst 8Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+8
17.2%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24FG
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:4423% → 25%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
23.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
23.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 14 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
24.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 10 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
24.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 5:54
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+2
24.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
24.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
24.6%
Nick Sciba 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-10
19.7%
Conley, E. deep pass complete to Fitzpatrick, D. for 48 yards to the WF20 (Rucker, T), PENALTY UL holding (Bell, R.) 10 yards to the UL22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 20
OWN 22
+1
20.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 19
OWN 23
-4
20.1%
Evan Conley sacked by Ryan Smenda Jr. and JaCorey Johns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 23
OWN 19
+9
20.7%
Evan Conley run for 9 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
20.9%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0019% → 21%
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+27
19.1%
Cade Carney run for 27 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
21.8%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-3
21.9%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+4
21.1%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted Rodjay Burns return for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
15.4%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+5
15.0%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+7
14.8%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 7 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.2%
Evan Conley pass complete to Keion Wakefield for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
14.3%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+5
14.7%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
15.5%
Mason King punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
15.0%
Beal-Smith, C rush right for 2 yards to the WF22 (Johnson, A.), PENALTY WF holding (Herron, J) 10 yards to the WF10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
14.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 18
OWN 12
0
14.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete, broken up by Jared GoldwireSimilar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
14.5%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall Hinton, broken up by Chandler JonesSimilar
Q4 11:19
4TH & 18
OWN 12
0
14.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:1292% → 98%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
8.4%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 7 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-1
8.2%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 4
50
+50
1.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 50 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 2:553% → 9%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
3.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 3 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+12
3.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 12 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
3.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+5
3.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
3.7%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
3.6%
Jamie Newman run for 5 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+14
3.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 14 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
2.8%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
8.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:4496% → 97%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+39
4.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 27 yds to the WAKEFOREST 24 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (12 yards) (Amari Henderson) to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
4.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
4.1%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 5:48
3RD & 12
OPP 14
-4
4.1%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 18Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+36
2.9%
Blanton Creque 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 32TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 1:234% → 12%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
3.9%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Kendall Hinton, broken up by C.J. AverySimilar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+9
3.9%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
4.2%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
4.1%
Sam Hartman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+29
4.2%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 14 yds to the WAKEFOREST 37 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, targeting (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
5.0%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
11.8%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 33TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:3510% → 44%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
9.9%
Hartman, S deep pass incomplete to Surratt, S, PENALTY UL pass interference (Jones, C.) 15 yards to the UL32, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
12.0%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 11 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
44.4%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 34TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:2280% → 95%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
50
-2
20.0%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+1
21.5%
Evan Conley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+10
20.6%
Evan Conley run for 10 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
5.5%
Evan Conley run for 41 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 35TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 1:054% → 35%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+26
3.9%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 26 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
4.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Jack FreudenthalSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
4.3%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 11 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
4.6%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 27 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
6.4%
Sam Hartman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt, broken up by Anthony JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+27
6.1%
Sam Hartman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 27 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.4%
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 36END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
11.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OWN 21
-1
11.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:37
Sam Hartman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 21 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+32.4
TD · Q4 1:10
Sam Hartman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+29.3
TD · Q3 5:54
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-19.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com