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UNC

North Carolina 38 at Georgia Tech 22

GT
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:23 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:13: Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +9.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:29: Malachi Carter 28 Yd pass from James Graham (Brenton King Kick) — GT win probability +8.4 pts (now 23%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:18: Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +10.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:25: Jordan Mason run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Graham pass to Tyler Davis for Two-Point Conversion) — GT win probability +14.4 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:53: Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +9.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:10GT 4th & 13 at UNC 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    28.1%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:59UNC 4th & 10 at GT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    68.0%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04GT 4th & 9 at GT 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UNC 4th & 25 at UNC 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.9%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:30GT 4th & 4 at GT 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:31UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 34, up 10
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:42GT 4th & 19 at GT 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−1.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00GT 4th & 11 at GT 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:47UNC 4th & 22 at GT 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−2.6
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:21UNC 4th & 7 at UNC 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:57GT 4th & 8 at GT 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:57UNC 4th & 7 at GT 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    78.4%−1.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:47GT 4th & 10 at GT 30, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:45UNC 4th & 10 at GT 45, up 16
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 6:30UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:13UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:29GT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:18UNC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:25GT Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:53UNC Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:24UNC Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:45GT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 1:2177% → 77%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
22.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+5
22.8%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+13
22.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
22.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 3
50
+6
23.3%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
23.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
23.3%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+18
23.3%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Antwan Owens return for 18 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
24.4%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 11 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
24.5%
Jordan Mason run for 1 yd to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
24.5%
James Graham run for 1 yd to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 8
OPP 32
-5
24.4%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Jared Southers) to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
24.2%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
24.1%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
16 plays · 65 yds · 4:0275% → 74%
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
25.1%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
25.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+13
25.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
25.1%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
24.9%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 10:01
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
24.9%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
25.7%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+21
25.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 21 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
25.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Zamari WaltonSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-5
25.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Ed Montilus) to the GTech 38Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 15
OPP 38
+11
26.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+12
25.7%
Michael Carter run for 12 yds to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
25.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
25.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
26.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
26.4%
Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:4826% → 26%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
26.2%
James Graham pass incomplete to Ahmarean BrownSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+15
26.2%
James Graham run for 15 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.3%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+11
26.3%
James Graham pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 11 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
27.3%
Jordan Mason run for 3 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-2
27.4%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 46Similar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
26.6%
James Graham run for no gain to the GTech 46Similar
Q1 5:04
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
26.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 3:0572% → 71%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
27.7%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+4
27.5%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
27.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
27.2%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
27.2%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.9%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+4
26.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 4 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 49
+11
26.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 11 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
26.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
26.7%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the GTech 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-15
27.5%
Howell, S pass complete to Newsome, D for 21 yards to the GT17, out-of-bounds (Walton, Z.), PENALTY NC pass interference (Groves, R) 15 yards to the NC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 25
OWN 47
0
28.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 25
OWN 47
+4
28.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds , Josh Blancato returns for 4 yds to the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6INT
7 plays · 35 yds · 3:3729% → 32%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
28.8%
Tobias Oliver run for 4 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+2
28.8%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 2 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
28.3%
James Graham pass complete to Tyler Davis for 5 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
29.6%
Tobias Oliver run for no gain to the GTech 23Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
29.5%
Tobias Oliver run for 7 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+17
29.2%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 17 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
32.2%
James Graham pass intercepted Don Chapman return for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 3:5570% → 78%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
29.6%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-10
29.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Charlie Heck) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+11
30.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 11 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
30.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
29.1%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
28.8%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+13
28.8%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
28.3%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 27
0
28.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+7
28.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
27.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
22.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 20 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.1%
James Graham run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 27 James Graham fumbled, recovered by GTech Tobias Oliver , return for 4 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
23.2%
James Graham pass complete to Jair Hawkins-Anderson for 2 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+2
22.7%
James Graham run for 2 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+8
22.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 51 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 8 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
23.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
23.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 34
0
23.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete, broken up by Demetrius Knight IISimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 2
OWN 34
+8
23.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 51 yds , Josh Blancato returns for 8 yds to the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4223% → 22%
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
23.1%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 9 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+12
23.9%
Jordan Mason run for 12 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
24.2%
James Graham run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
23.9%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 11
OWN 43
-8
23.1%
James Graham sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 8 yards to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 19
OWN 35
+12
21.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 38 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 12 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:1777% → 88%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+41
22.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 41 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
21.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 12 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.8%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the GTech 8Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
20.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 2 yds to the GTech 6Similar
Q2 0:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 6 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.8%
Jordan Mason run for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
15.3%
James Graham run for no gain to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
14.9%
James Graham sacked by Aaron Crawford for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
14.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:1387% → 88%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
13.2%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
12.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 9 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+14
12.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 14 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
12.0%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+21
12.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 21 yds to the GTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
12.0%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 7Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
12.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Charlie Heck) to the GTech 22Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
0
12.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for no gain to the GTech 22Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 22
0
12.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+39
12.5%
Noah Ruggles 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:1813% → 23%
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
12.8%
James Graham pass complete to N/A for 8 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+43
13.3%
Jordan Mason run for 43 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
14.8%
James Graham pass incomplete to Ahmarean BrownSimilar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
14.2%
Jamious Griffin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+28
22.7%
Malachi Carter 28 Yd pass from James Graham (Brenton King Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
21.1%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
21.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Tariq CarpenterSimilar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+2
22.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+4
22.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 40 yds , Josh Blancato returns for 4 yds to the GTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
20.2%
James Graham run for 4 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-2
20.6%
Jordan Mason run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
19.4%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
18.4%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 5:1080% → 95%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
19.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 29
-5
18.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 5 yds to the NCaro 34 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-7
19.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Kelton Dawson for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 17 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 16
OWN 17
+20
20.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 20 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
18.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+12
19.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
17.5%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the GATECH 38 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
17.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Garrett WalstonSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
17.3%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-3
17.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 35Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+15
19.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 15 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
16.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
5.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:468% → 24%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
8.0%
James Graham pass incomplete to Ahmarean BrownSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+39
7.9%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 39 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
9.0%
Jerry Howard Jr. run for 20 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
9.3%
James Graham run for 12 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
23.7%
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Graham pass to Tyler Davis for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:2680% → 95%
Q4 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
19.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 4 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+12
19.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+44
18.1%
Javonte Williams run for 29 yds to the GATECH 42 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
15.3%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 31Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+5
15.9%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Brown, D, PENALTY GT offside defense (Owens, A.) 5 yards to the GT26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+10
14.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 10 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
4.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
6.0%
James Graham pass incomplete to Tyler Davis, broken up by Storm DuckSimilar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
5.9%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
5.9%
James Graham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
5.9%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 5:5795% → 99%
Q4 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
5.1%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+8
5.0%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
4.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
4.7%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+14
4.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
4.3%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the GTech 48Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
4.4%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
3.2%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+32
3.3%
Javonte Williams run for 32 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.6%
Javonte Williams 3 Yd Run (Noah Ruggles Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:311% → 3%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
0.9%
James Graham run for 15 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
1.0%
James Graham pass complete to Tobias Oliver for 9 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
1.1%
James Graham pass incomplete, broken up by Obi EgbunaSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+12
1.1%
James Graham run for 12 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
3.2%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 32 yds for a TD, (Brenton King KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 0 yds · 0:5898% → 99%
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
1.7%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+2
1.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-6
1.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Tomari Fox) to the GTech 46Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+1
1.7%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 0:45
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
1.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 22 yds, downed at the GTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
1.0%
James Graham pass complete to N/A for 9 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 1
OWN 32
0
1.1%
James Graham pass intercepted D.J. Ford return for no gain to the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
1.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:25
Jordan Mason run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Graham pass to Tyler Davis for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.4
TD · Q4 14:18
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q4 9:53
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 16 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com