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PITT

Pittsburgh 33 at Duke 30

DUKE
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.7DUKE 59.5%AJ Reed 33 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 8:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:43 · AJ Reed 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 22Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.1Pregame prior+7.6Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:59: Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED) — PITT win probability +16.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:41: Quentin Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +15.2 pts (now 22%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:10: Quentin Harris 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — DUKE win probability +28.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 1:29: Deon Jackson 44 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — DUKE win probability +48.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: V'Lique Carter 26 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +64.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10PITT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:59DUKE 4th & 1 at PITT 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:43DUKE 4th & 3 at PITT 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:39PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:52PITT 4th & 7 at DUKE 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:35PITT 4th & 7 at DUKE 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:42DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:07PITT 4th & 9 at DUKE 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−4.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:00DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:59DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 31, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:02PITT 4th & 3 at DUKE 42, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    70.5%−3.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    72.3%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:56DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 30, down 16
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:00PITT 4th & 10 at DUKE 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 11:00DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 31, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−2.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:33PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 26, up 23
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:18PITT 4th & 25 at PITT 33, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 4:23DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 46, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:03PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 34, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−5.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:27DUKE 4th & 7 at PITT 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    46.8%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−2.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:24PITT 4th & 21 at DUKE 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−9.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 4:49PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:59PITT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:05PITT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:41DUKE Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:09DUKE Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    27.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:10DUKE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    47.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:29DUKE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    79.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    80.5%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:38PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+25
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Todd Sibley Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-4
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
0
58.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
58.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2FG
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:1659% → 60%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
58.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 19 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
58.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
58.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete, broken up by Jaylen TwymanSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+14
58.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 14 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
58.8%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
58.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 7 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
58.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
58.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 4 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
58.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+3
58.7%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
58.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
58.9%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+7
58.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+33
59.5%
AJ Reed 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
59.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 6 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+3
59.3%
Maurice Ffrench run for 3 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-3
59.4%
Maurice Ffrench run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 8:39
4TH & 4
OWN 23
+11
59.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 50 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 11 yds to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.7%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
59.6%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
59.3%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Duke 49 Quentin Harris fumbled, forced by Cam Bright, recovered by Pitt Habakkuk BaldonadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
58.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
59.0%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
59.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
59.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+26
56.7%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted for a TD Paris Ford return for 26 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
56.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+44
56.6%
Quentin Harris pass intercepted Paris Ford return for 22 yds to the Duke 47 PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Deslin Alexandre) to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8FG
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:3245% → 48%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
55.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+10
55.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 10 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-7
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 8 yds to the Duke 13 PITTSBURGH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Maurice Ffrench) to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
55.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Habakkuk BaldonadoSimilar
Q1 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
55.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 4:07
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+2
55.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 2 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
52.4%
Alex Kessman 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:3553% → 52%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
53.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
52.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 8 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Dane Jackson) to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
53.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 0
0
52.6%
Durant,M. rush for loss of 2 yards to the DU31 (Baldonado, H), PENALTY UP personal foul off-setting, PENALTY DU holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+4
53.3%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+1
53.1%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
52.2%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10INT
19 plays · 68 yds · 0:0048% → 50%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
52.1%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 4 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
51.6%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+7
51.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 7 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
51.3%
Kenny Pickett run for 9 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
50.7%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
50
0
50.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
50
-10
50.6%
Pickett, K pass complete to Gragg, W for no gain to the 50 yardline (Singleton,D.;Dimukeje,V.), PENALTY UP holding (Houy, G) 10 yards to the UP40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+2
51.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+15
52.0%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Griffin-Stewart, PENALTY DU personal foul (Jordan,D.) 15 yards to the DU43, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
50.6%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+10
50.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 10 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+1
50.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
50.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+11
50.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 11 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
50.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
50.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 9
OPP 21
-5
50.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Gabe Houy) to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+17
51.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
50.4%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Marquis Waters return for 9 yds to the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
47.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
47.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 5
OWN 14
-1
46.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 7:42
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
46.4%
Austin Parker punt for 32 yds, downed at the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5456% → 58%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
44.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
44.1%
V'Lique Carter run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+3
44.3%
V'Lique Carter run for 3 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
44.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 12 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
43.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
44.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 1 yd to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
44.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+38
42.2%
Alex Kessman 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
41.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
40.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q2 3:00
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+50
40.0%
Austin Parker punt for 43 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for 50 yds to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
1 play · 19 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
23.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 19 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
32.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
32.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
32.2%
Austin Parker punt for 58 yds, downed at the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 1:1674% → 75%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
25.6%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 6Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+17
25.6%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Koby Quansah) to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
24.6%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Carter, V, PENALTY DU personal foul (Hill,B.) 15 yards to the UP38, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
23.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
23.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 6 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
23.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 8 yds to the Pitt 41 PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 17
OWN 44
+8
23.4%
V'Lique Carter run for 8 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
21.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+6
22.1%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 42
-5
25.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
29.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+3
30.1%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 3
OWN 30
0
30.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah Gray, broken up by Erick Hallett DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
29.8%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, downed at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
25.7%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 25 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
24.3%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+2
24.3%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
-6
24.6%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Edgar Cerenord and Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
26.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
26.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Kylan JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-8
26.0%
Quentin Harris sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 7 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by Pitt Deslin Alexandre , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:1280% → 90%
Q3 11:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
20.4%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 3 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
10.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 4 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
15.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
16.0%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+2
16.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
16.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
15.7%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
15.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 11:00
4TH & 9
OWN 31
-2
15.6%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
7.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 6 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
7.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
8.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will Gragg, broken up by Marquis Waters PITTSBURGH Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+10
8.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 52 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 10 yds to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
8.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
8.8%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 4
50
+2
9.1%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 7:07
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+2
9.2%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+21
9.1%
Aaron Young pass intercepted Dane Jackson return for 21 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -15 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
5.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
5.1%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:18
3RD & 8
50
-17
5.0%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Victor Dimukeje for a loss of 17 yards to the Pitt 33 PITTSBURGH Penalty, intentional grounding (Kenny Pickett) to the Pitt 33Similar
Q3 5:18
4TH & 25
OWN 33
0
5.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
6.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
6.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
6.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
6.7%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
6.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
6.5%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds , Paris Ford returns for no gain to the Pitt 4 Paris Ford fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaka HeywardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.7%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
14.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 13 yds Dontavius Butler-Jenkins fumbled, forced by Dylan Singleton, recovered by Duke Leonard Johnson , return for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28TD
11 plays · 43 yds · 4:1121% → 29%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
20.5%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
21.5%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
21.0%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
21.2%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 25
0
21.5%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+4
18.9%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
19.4%
Harris,Q. pass incomplete to Bracey,S., PENALTY UP pass interference (Mathis, D) 15 yards to the UP6, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
19.4%
Harris,Q. pass incomplete, QB hurry by Jones, P, PENALTY UP personal foul (Jones, P) 3 yards to the UP3, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
19.5%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
19.4%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 13:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
29.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (J. Calhoun Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29INT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 79%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
23.0%
V'Lique Carter run for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
21.8%
V'Lique Carter run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will GraggSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
22.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+10
23.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 10 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 13:08
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+17
21.0%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted Edgar Cerenord return for 17 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:3731% → 58%
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
30.5%
Quentin Harris sacked by Amir Watts for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+17
28.0%
Quentin Harris run for 17 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
28.6%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
30.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 3 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+5
30.5%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
28.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 3 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
57.5%
Quentin Harris 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 31PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
42.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 10 yds to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
40.9%
V'Lique Carter run for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
41.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
43.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+11
45.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 39 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 11 yds to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 32DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
50.6%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+1
53.0%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
51.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
55.0%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
54.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake Bobo, broken up by Damarri MathisSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
53.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
50.2%
Austin Parker pass incomplete to Lummie Young IV, broken up by Dane JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1565% → 70%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
35.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 20 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
34.1%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+2
34.3%
Todd Sibley Jr. run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 38
-11
35.2%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 3:24
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
29.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 34TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 1:4939% → 91%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
39.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
38.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+24
36.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 9 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Paris Ford) to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
42.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
42.0%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+13
42.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 13 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
91.3%
Deon Jackson 44 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 35TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 0:4724% → 94%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
76.1%
Pickett, K pass incomplete to Carter, V, PENALTY DU pass interference (Quansah,K.) 15 yards to the UP33, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
73.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 12 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
69.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 23 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
64.8%
Pickett, K pass complete to Ffrench, M for 23 yards to the DU9 (Johnson,L.), PENALTY UP illegal touching (Carter, V) 0 yards to the DU32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
65.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+26
5.6%
V'Lique Carter 26 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 36FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.2%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah Gray, broken up by Erick HallettSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
19.3%
Quentin Harris sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 18 Quentin Harris fumbled, recovered by Pitt Phil Campbell III , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 37END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:38
V'Lique Carter 26 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Alex Kessman Kick)
-64.8
TD · Q4 1:29
Deon Jackson 44 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+48.6
TD · Q4 9:10
Quentin Harris 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
+28.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com