Try the model
BC

Boston College 39 at Louisville 41

LOU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreBC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:58 · Mason King punt for 36 yds , Travis Levy returns for no gain to the BC 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense+14.8Garbage-time factor+8.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Score differential+2.1Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:57: Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 19 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +14.4 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:00: Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 23 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +15.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:48: Travis Levy run for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +21.2 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 3:32: Aaron Boumerhi 45 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +21.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:02: Blanton Creque 41 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +35.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 5:14BC 4th & 7 at BC 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:10LOU 4th & 2 at BC 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:23LOU 4th & 1 at BC 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.8%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    59.6%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−7.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:23BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:28LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 47, up 7
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:51BC 4th & 9 at BC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:58BC 4th & 1 at LOU 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%−3.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:40BC 4th & 6 at BC 45, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:58LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 34, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:39LOU 4th & 10 at BC 42, up 2
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−2.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:29BC 4th & 6 at BC 47, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:32BC 4th & 5 at LOU 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−6.9
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−18.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:02LOU 4th & 11 at BC 23, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−25.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.6%−36.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:38BC 4th & 2 at BC 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−9.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:33LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:01BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:14LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:27BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:23LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:45LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:29BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:57BC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:00LOU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:48BC Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1FUMBLE
11 plays · 79 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
61.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+2
61.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+17
61.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 17 yds to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
61.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to AJ Dillon for 36 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
61.8%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+3
61.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+1
61.8%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
61.8%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
61.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
61.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds AJ Dillon fumbled, forced by Monty Montgomery, recovered by Lvile Monty MontgomerySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3162% → 65%
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
61.7%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+23
61.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 23 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
62.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 11:04
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+47
62.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 47 yds to the BC 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
62.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 1:3236% → 39%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
63.8%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+7
63.9%
Zay Flowers run for 7 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 20
-5
64.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (AJ Dillon) to the BC 15Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+13
64.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 13 yds to the BC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
61.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 72 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4761% → 65%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
61.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 13 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
61.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-1
62.1%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+59
65.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 59 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.8%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
64.7%
David Bailey run for 9 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 2 yds to the BC 39Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
64.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
64.6%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:14
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+8
65.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 38 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 8 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 4:0866% → 66%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
65.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-4
66.3%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+14
65.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
66.6%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
66.7%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the BC 48Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-6
66.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-5
65.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+13
66.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 13 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 46
0
66.3%
Mason King punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 2:3534% → 43%
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
65.9%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the BC 18Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+6
65.8%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
65.8%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 27Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+53
65.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Zay Flowers for 53 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
63.2%
David Bailey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 14:02
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+14
63.4%
Anthony Brown run for 14 yds to the Lvile 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
63.2%
Ben Glines run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 10Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
56.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 10 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0461% → 70%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
61.0%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 17 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
62.5%
Hassan Hall run for 9 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
63.0%
Evan Conley pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 2 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
63.0%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+32
62.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 32 yds to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
63.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+6
63.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the BC 3Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 1
OPP 3
0
62.6%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the BC 3Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
69.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0032% → 30%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.5%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
68.6%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Korab IdriziSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
69.3%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
69.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 60 yds, downed at the Lvile 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
69.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+21
69.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 21 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
71.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 5
OWN 47
0
71.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 5:28
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
70.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
69.0%
Mason King punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
69.2%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the BC 20Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 20
-5
69.4%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 15Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
69.6%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the BC 17Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
70.4%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to David BaileySimilar
Q2 3:51
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
70.9%
Grant Carlson punt for 53 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 17 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Yasir Abdullah) to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:3970% → 82%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
70.1%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+77
70.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 77 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.8%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 1:1621% → 35%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
79.4%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 27Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+31
79.8%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jake Burt for 31 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.5%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Jake BurtSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
78.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Korab Idrizi, broken up by Khane PassSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+14
78.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Hunter Long for 14 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
76.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+10
76.5%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 10 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
76.0%
Dennis Grosel run for 5 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
64.9%
Kobay White 13 Yd pass from Dennis Grosel (Dennis Grosel Pass to Hunter Long for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:2972% → 73%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.6%
Cunningham, M. deep pass incomplete to Fitzpatrick, D. (Sebastian,B), PENALTY BC pass interference (Sebastian,B) 15 yards to the LOU40, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
73.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 20 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
72.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
72.4%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+7
72.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 7 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+44
73.3%
Blanton Creque 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+20
68.9%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Travis Levy returns for 20 yds to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:0133% → 51%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
66.7%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+9
65.6%
AJ Dillon run for 9 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
65.2%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
65.3%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
65.6%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+2
66.8%
Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
63.9%
Grosel,D pass incomplete, PENALTY LOU holding (Yeast, R.) 10 yards to the LOU23, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
63.5%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
49.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 19 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:1759% → 65%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+41
58.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 41 yds to the BC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
61.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 12 yds to the BC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
61.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the BC 2Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & 2
OWN 0
-15
54.9%
Cunningham, M. rush up middle for 2 yards to the BC0, clock 08:13, PENALTY LOU holding (Boone, A.) 10 yards to the BC12, NO PLAY, PENALTY LOU personal foul (Haycraft, T.) 15 yards to the BC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 27
-2
58.8%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 29Similar
Q3 8:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 29
+13
56.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Javian Hawkins for 13 yds to the BC 16Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 0
OPP 16
+34
65.3%
Blanton Creque 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
60.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
59.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 45Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
60.2%
Dennis Grosel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 6
OWN 45
+3
63.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 54 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
14 plays · 96 yds · 6:1663% → 86%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
63.4%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+6
63.1%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+8
61.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 8 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
63.8%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 11 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
64.3%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 35
-2
65.2%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+12
62.7%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
66.8%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
65.6%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 11
OWN 44
+27
63.6%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 27 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
69.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the BC 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+5
69.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds to the BC 23Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
86.1%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 23 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 19%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
82.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Ben GlinesSimilar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
82.3%
AJ Dillon run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
50
+11
80.9%
Dennis Grosel pass intercepted Anthony Johnson return for 11 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-1
85.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
84.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick, broken up by Jason MaitreSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
84.1%
Mason King punt for 36 yds , Travis Levy returns for no gain to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:0515% → 39%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
85.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 7 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+31
84.0%
AJ Dillon run for 31 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
82.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Jake Burt) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+37
60.8%
Travis Levy run for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:0968% → 66%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
68.5%
Evan Conley pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.0%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
69.4%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Nolan BorgersenSimilar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+20
67.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 20 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
72.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-2
72.3%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
70.8%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
65.5%
Mason King punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24FG
14 plays · 52 yds · 3:5736% → 63%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
64.1%
AJ Dillon run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
62.7%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
63.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
64.3%
AJ Dillon run for 13 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
60.1%
Zay Flowers run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 39Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 14
OWN 39
0
63.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Travis LevySimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+13
65.1%
Dennis Grosel run for 13 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 1
OPP 48
-5
60.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 47Similar
Q4 7:29
4TH & 6
OWN 47
+8
63.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Kobay White for 8 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
57.7%
Dennis Grosel run for 12 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
55.7%
Zay Flowers pass incomplete to Dennis GroselSimilar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
56.0%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
58.8%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 3:32
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
37.0%
Aaron Boumerhi 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:3048% → 87%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
49.9%
Evan Conley pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
50
0
54.4%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell, broken up by Nolan BorgersenSimilar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
50
+28
53.6%
Javian Hawkins run for 28 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
57.5%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the BC 22Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-1
57.3%
Evan Conley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 23 Evan Conley fumbled,Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 11
OPP 23
0
52.2%
Evan Conley pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 11
OPP 23
+41
87.3%
Blanton Creque 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 22 yds · 0:2426% → 18%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
73.9%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
74.3%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 9 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
71.5%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+5
83.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.7%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
81.1%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to Kobay WhiteSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.9%
Dennis Grosel run for 8 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 2
OWN 46
0
81.8%
Dennis Grosel pass incomplete to AJ DillonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
95.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:02
Blanton Creque 41 yd FG GOOD
+35.1
FG · Q4 3:32
Aaron Boumerhi 45 yd FG GOOD
-21.9
TD · Q4 10:48
Travis Levy run for 37 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
-21.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com