2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Tobias Oliver run for 10 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ifeanyi Maijeh) to the Temp 10 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 6:53: Re'Mahn Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:08: Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +7.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 10:33: Tobias Oliver run for a loss of 1 yard Tobias Oliver fumbled, forced by Ifeanyi Maijeh, recovered by Temp Benny Walls , return for 74 yds, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +9.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 7:00: Jager Gardner run for 2 yds to the Temp 39 — TEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:55: Will Mobley 34 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8GT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 12:18GT 4th & 5 at GT 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.8%average punt
- Q1 10:34TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snapGo for it73.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.7%average punt
- Q1 8:23GT 4th & 6 at TEM 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call27.1%40% to convertField goal27.0%−<0.149% to makePunt26.9%−0.2average punt
- Q1 7:11TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.7%average punt
- Q2 15:00GT 4th & 3 at TEM 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call30.1%52% to convertField goal29.7%−0.456% to makePunt29.2%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:56TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snapGo for it70.6%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.7%average punt
- Q2 11:40GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snapGo for it29.5%−0.536% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.0%average punt
- Q2 6:53TEM 4th & 1 at GT 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.1%71% to convertField goal68.5%−1.679% to makePunt64.3%−5.8average punt
- Q2 6:46GT 4th & 5 at GT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q2 1:21TEM 4th & 1 at GT 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call77.7%71% to convertField goal76.5%−1.283% to makePunt72.3%−5.5average punt
- Q3 10:33GT 4th & 10 at TEM 46, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.430% to convertField goal4.5%−1.023% to makePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q3 9:01GT 4th & 22 at GT 13, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it6.1%−2.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.8%average punt
- Q3 0:55TEM 4th & 7 at GT 16, up 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snapGo for it95.9%−0.335% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%81% to makePunt93.2%−3.0average punt
- Q4 15:00GT 4th & 10 at midfield, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q4 13:55TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 17, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snapGo for it98.2%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.4%average punt
- Q4 12:34GT 4th & 1 at TEM 47, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.4%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.6average punt
- Q4 7:52TEM 4th & 8 at GT 33, up 22Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%−<0.134% to convertField goal98.9%49% to makePunt98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 7:46GT 4th & 2 at TEM 12, down 22Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%−0.156% to convertField goal1.2%86% to makePunt-0.3%−1.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 6:53TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.5%97% to makeGo for two75.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.9%97% to makeGo for two84.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1INT9 plays · 55 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
75.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 7 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
75.4%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Zamari WaltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+38
75.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 38 yds to the GTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.4%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Zamari WaltonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
75.4%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted, touchback. Kaleb Oliver return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
TEMDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
74.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, false start (David Martin-Robinson) to the Temp 40Similar
Q1 10:34
1ST & 15
OWN 40
-5
74.6%
RUSSO,Anthony pass complete to YEBOAH,Kenny for 3 yards to the TEM43 (Jordan-Swilling), PENALTY TEM ineligible downfield on pass (YEBOAH,Kenny) 5 yards to the TEM35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:34
3RD & 20
OWN 35
+12
74.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Re'Mahn Davis for 12 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 8
OWN 0
0
74.2%
BARRY,Adam punt 47 yards to the GT6, Blancato, J. return to the GT25 (GRAHAM-MOBLEY,I), PENALTY GT illegal block off-setting, PENALTY TEM illegal block off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4DOWNS5 plays · 46 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+42
73.8%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 42 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
74.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6FUMBLE16 plays · 85 yds · 5:0727% → 30%
Q1 5:07
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+11
73.2%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Jordan Mason for 11 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+15
72.5%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 15 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+6
70.7%
Tobias Oliver pass complete to Jordan Mason for 6 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+20
71.0%
Tobias Oliver run for 10 yds to the Temp 20 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ifeanyi Maijeh) to the Temp 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
69.7%
Tobias Oliver pass incomplete to Juanyeh Thomas, broken up by Shaun BradleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
70.2%
Tobias Oliver run for 8 yds Tobias Oliver fumbled, forced by Isaiah Graham-Mobley, recovered by Temp Christian BraswellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 13:56
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
72.2%
Jager Gardner run for 5 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
72.5%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Tre SwillingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD9 plays · 58 yds · 3:2973% → 79%
Q2 10:22
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+14
73.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 14 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 6:46
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+1
78.6%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Temp 27 , Isaiah Wright returns for 1 yd to the Temp 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD17 plays · 73 yds · 5:1978% → 88%
Q2 5:27
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
78.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 2
50
+26
79.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 26 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 12
OPP 15
+13
79.8%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to MACK,Branden, PENALTY GT pass interference (Swilling, T.) 13 yards to the GT2, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13FUMBLE TD11 plays · 45 yds · 4:2715% → 6%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+5
84.4%
James Graham pass complete to Malachi Carter for 5 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
84.7%
James Graham pass complete to Jalen Camp for 8 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
84.5%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive offside (Daniel Archibong) to the Temp 44Similar
Q3 10:33
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+74
93.9%
Tobias Oliver run for a loss of 1 yard Tobias Oliver fumbled, forced by Ifeanyi Maijeh, recovered by Temp Benny Walls , return for 74 yds, (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
94.9%
James Graham pass complete to Jalen Camp for 12 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15SF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · -12 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
92.3%
James Graham pass complete to Malachi Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 23Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
92.3%
James Graham sacked by Dana Levine for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 20Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-7
92.5%
James Graham sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 13Similar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
92.5%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17FG13 plays · 47 yds · 6:0595% → 98%
Q3 7:00
3RD & 8
50
+9
95.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 9 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+16
95.5%
Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd to the GTech 34 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Brentavious Glanton) to the GTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:482% → 2%
Q3 0:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+7
98.1%
James Graham pass complete to Ahmarean Brown for 7 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+16
98.2%
James Graham pass complete to Jalen Camp for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
50
0
98.3%
Pressley Harvin III punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20INT10 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
98.6%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 8 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
98.6%
James Graham pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 11 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+15
98.6%
Graham, J. sacked for loss of 9 yards to the TEM38 (ARCHIBONG,Dan;JARMAN,Aaron), PENALTY TEM personal foul (ARCHIBONG,Dan) 15 yards to the TEM14, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+65
98.4%
James Graham pass intercepted Benny Walls return for 65 yds to the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · -4 yds · 1:4999% → 99%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
99.0%
GARDNER,Jager rush for 3 yards to the GT32 (Thomas, Jua.), PENALTY TEM holding (KLEIN,Adam) 10 yards to the GT45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 19
OPP 44
+11
98.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 11 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 7:52
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-6
99.3%
Anthony Russo sacked by T.K. Chimedza for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22DOWNS7 plays · 48 yds · 0:001% → 1%
TEMDrive 23END OF GAME9 plays · 46 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FUMBLE · Q3 10:33
Tobias Oliver run for a loss of 1 yard Tobias Oliver fumbled, forced by Ifeanyi Maijeh, recovered by Temp Benny Walls , return for 74 yds, (Will Mobley KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q2 0:08
Re'Mahn Davis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 6:53
Re'Mahn Davis run for 18 yds for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
+5.4