Try the model
CLEM

Clemson 21 at North Carolina 20

UNC
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreCLEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:16 · B.T. Potter 40 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior−45.9Home team on offense+0.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:33: Trevor Lawrence run for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +9.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:54: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 38 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +21.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:17: Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNC win probability +25.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:16: Noah Ruggles on-side kick recovered by CLEMSON at the NCaro 43 — CLEM win probability +12.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 47 — CLEM win probability +25.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 10 of 10CLEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:16CLEM 4th & 2 at UNC 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.3%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.9%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:59UNC 4th & 14 at CLEM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:09UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16CLEM 4th & 22 at CLEM 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:01UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−1.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:49CLEM 4th & 6 at UNC 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    76.9%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:16UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:53CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:56UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:55CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−1.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:12UNC 4th & 20 at UNC 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−6.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:20CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−3.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:34UNC 4th & 1 at CLEM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−9.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−6.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:20UNC 4th & 1 at CLEM 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%−6.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:44UNC 4th & 4 at CLEM 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.4%−3.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:15UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:43CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:55UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33CLEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:54CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:17UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 3.9 ptsWent for two · failed
    Kick
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    43.4%−3.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:304% → 4%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.8%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
4.0%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+26
4.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 26 yds to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
4.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 40 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:4496% → 94%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
4.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 2 yds to the Clem 40Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+6
4.4%
Travis Etienne run for 6 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+10
4.5%
Trevor Lawrence run for 10 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
4.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 14 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
4.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 2 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
5.2%
Trevor Lawrence run for 6 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
5.5%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for no gain to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
5.6%
B.T. Potter 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:576% → 6%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
5.8%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
5.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 27
-3
6.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
6.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Clem 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:1894% → 93%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
6.4%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn RossSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
6.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to J.C. ChalkSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
6.7%
Will Spiers punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 5:017% → 9%
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
6.7%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
7.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
7.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 9 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
7.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
8.3%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+6
8.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 6 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+1
9.0%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the Clem 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
9.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 2:38
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
9.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 46Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 14
OPP 46
0
9.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
9.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD
11 plays · 90 yds · 4:1691% → 91%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
9.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Travis Etienne) to the Clem 6Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 14
OWN 6
0
9.7%
Travis Etienne run for no gain to the Clem 6Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 14
OWN 6
+16
10.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 16 yds to the Clem 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
10.3%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 4 yds to the Clem 26Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+2
10.5%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 2 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+16
10.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 16 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
10.7%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 9 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+6
10.6%
Travis Etienne run for 6 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+31
11.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 31 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
10.9%
Trevor Lawrence run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
8.8%
Travis Etienne run for 13 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0610% → 10%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
10.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+8
10.4%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 11:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
10.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
10.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, downed at the Clem 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:2290% → 90%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
10.5%
Travis Etienne run for 9 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+5
10.3%
Travis Etienne run for 5 yds to the Clem 42 Travis Etienne fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jason StrowbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0513% → 19%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
12.6%
Michael Carter run for 31 yds to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
13.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the Clem 7Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
13.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Clem 12Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+2
14.7%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the Clem 10Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
19.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 10 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -12 yds · 1:0982% → 79%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.4%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
18.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Amari RodgersSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
19.9%
Trevor Lawrence sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 9 yards to the Clem 18Similar
Q2 6:30
4TH & 17
OWN 18
-5
20.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Clem 13Similar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 22
OWN 13
0
21.0%
Will Spiers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:1522% → 21%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
21.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Marcus McKethan) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 15
OWN 35
-1
20.8%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 5:42
2ND & 16
OWN 34
+2
20.9%
Dyami Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
21.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 5:01
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
20.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, downed at the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:0078% → 85%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
22.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Diondre Overton for no gain to the Clem 22Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
22.6%
Travis Etienne run for 6 yds to the Clem 28Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+16
22.9%
Trevor Lawrence run for 16 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
22.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 28 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
20.4%
Trevor Lawrence run for no gain to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+1
21.2%
Travis Etienne run for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:50
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+17
22.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 17 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
21.4%
Trevor Lawrence run for 6 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
22.0%
Travis Etienne run for 1 yd to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.6%
Trevor Lawrence run for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:2619% → 20%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
19.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Joshua Ezeudu) to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+15
19.6%
Michael Carter run for 15 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:3683% → 80%
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
16.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 10 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
16.2%
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
16.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 12:52
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-5
17.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (John Simpson) to the Clem 47Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+14
18.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 14 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
17.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to J.C. ChalkSimilar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
17.9%
Travis Etienne run for 9 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 30
-5
18.1%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (Jackson Carman) to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
18.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn RossSimilar
Q3 10:49
4TH & 6
OPP 35
0
20.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Tee HigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2024% → 23%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
23.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
24.0%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+3
23.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 9:16
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
23.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:5277% → 73%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
22.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 10 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
22.8%
Travis Etienne run for 5 yds to the Clem 35Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 5
OWN 35
-1
22.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 34Similar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-5
24.2%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (John Simpson) to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
25.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
27.1%
Will Spiers punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4428% → 29%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
27.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
28.7%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
30.3%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
0
32.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
30.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
28.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 48 yds, downed at the Clem 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3573% → 70%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
27.2%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 5 yds to the Clem 15Similar
Q3 4:12
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
27.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:07
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
28.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Tee HigginsSimilar
Q3 3:55
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
30.4%
Will Spiers punt for 54 yds, downed at the NCaro 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:3332% → 32%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
31.5%
Javonte Williams run for 12 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
34.6%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-9
36.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Isaiah Simmons for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 16
OWN 37
-4
32.7%
Sam Howell sacked by Tyler Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 1:12
4TH & 20
OWN 33
0
31.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4770% → 65%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
30.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn RossSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
31.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for a loss of 1 yard to the Clem 29Similar
Q3 0:27
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
33.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to Justyn RossSimilar
Q3 0:20
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
34.9%
Will Spiers punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:2736% → 41%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
36.3%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+6
36.7%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+10
38.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
41.9%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
43.5%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
43.1%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the Clem 45Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
41.3%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the Clem 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1668% → 88%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
32.1%
Trevor Lawrence run for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 3
OPP 48
0
30.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+6
32.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 6 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
32.1%
Trevor Lawrence run for 7 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-5
30.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, False Start (J.C. Chalk) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+2
32.9%
Trevor Lawrence run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+38
11.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 38 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
20 plays · 75 yds · 8:1818% → 53%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.8%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.2%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q4 7:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
18.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
20.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-2
19.0%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 12
OWN 40
+11
16.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the Clem 49Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
18.2%
Sam Howell run for 3 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
21.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
20.1%
Michael Carter run for 8 yds to the Clem 38Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-2
22.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 40Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+7
19.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 7 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
24.6%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+6
24.6%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the Clem 25Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+22
20.7%
Javonte Williams run for 22 yds to the Clem 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
24.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Jake Bargas for 2 yds to the Clem 1Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.2%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4485% → 94%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
15.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 14
OPP 47
-3
5.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:45
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 47
-25.6
TD · Q4 1:17
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+25.5
TD · Q4 9:54
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 38 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com