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DUKE

Duke 45 at Virginia Tech 10

VT
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2019 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:46 · Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for 25 yds to the Duke 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.6Pregame prior+10.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:20: Noah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +9.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:43: Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +7.6 pts (now 57%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:39: Deon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +15.7 pts (now 79%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 5:56: AJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal — DUKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:30: Quentin Harris 42 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 2 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:06VT 4th & 7 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:17DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18VT 4th & 6 at DUKE 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:46DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:27VT 4th & 2 at DUKE 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.6%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    56.3%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:15VT 4th & 1 at VT 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:25VT 4th & 7 at DUKE 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    39.9%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.9%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:57DUKE 4th & 4 at VT 48, up 18
    Close callPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:04VT 4th & 2 at VT 18, down 18
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:56DUKE 4th & 2 at VT 14, up 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.7%−1.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−9.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:38VT 4th & 1 at VT 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:41DUKE 4th & 3 at midfield, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:28DUKE 4th & 7 at VT 19, up 28
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 11:20DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:43DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:39DUKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:30DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:31VT Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:25DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:37DUKE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 35 yds · 4:4763% → 63%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
62.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 15
-1
62.7%
Tayvion Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 14Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 11
OWN 14
+12
62.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
62.7%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
62.7%
Ryan Willis run for 11 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
62.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
62.9%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Mitchell, James, PENALTY DUKE pass interference 6 yards to the VATECH47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
63.0%
Tre Turner run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 14
OWN 43
+5
62.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 5 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+2
62.7%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 7
50
0
62.5%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3638% → 37%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
62.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 5 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+1
62.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 4
OWN 16
-1
62.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 8:17
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
62.8%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5463% → 62%
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
50
0
63.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
50
+4
63.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
62.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
62.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 37 yds, downed at the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1938% → 37%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
62.2%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 9Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
62.3%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 10Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 10
0
62.5%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 5:46
4TH & 9
OWN 10
+25
62.7%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for 25 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5FG
12 plays · 38 yds · 5:0963% → 63%
Q1 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
63.2%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+1
63.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
63.1%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
63.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+9
63.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 9 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
63.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 2:44
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+2
63.7%
Quincy Patterson II run for 2 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+6
63.3%
Willis, Ryan pass incomplete to Mitchell, James, PENALTY DUKE roughing passer 6 yards to the DUKE6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
63.8%
Deshawn McClease run for no gain to the Duke 6Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
63.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q1 0:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
63.4%
James Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
63.4%
Brian Johnson 20 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3137% → 37%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
63.4%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+9
64.0%
Harris, Quentin pass incomplete to Gray, Noah, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Floyd, Reggie) 9 yards to the DUKE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
63.0%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+2
63.0%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 13:53
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
63.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · -7 yds · 2:0963% → 64%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
63.1%
Keshawn King run for 8 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+1
63.9%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+1
63.2%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
63.0%
Hendon Hooker run for 7 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 40
-24
64.2%
Hendon Hooker run for a loss of 24 yards to the VTech 16 Hendon Hooker fumbled, recovered by Duke Koby QuansahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
1 play · 16 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
54.4%
Noah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5058% → 57%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
57.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Phil Patterson for 9 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+20
56.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 53 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 20 yds to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
11 plays · 67 yds · 3:2044% → 57%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
55.9%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+13
55.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
50
+13
54.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 13 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
53.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 17 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
52.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
53.0%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Aaron Young) to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 8:17
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+13
53.6%
Quentin Harris run for 13 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
52.2%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
51.1%
Harris, Quentin pass incomplete to Young, Aaron, PENALTY VATECH pass interference 5 yards to the VATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 7:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
51.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the VTech 1Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.5%
Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:0944% → 43%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-14
43.7%
Grimsley, Hezekiah rush for 3 yards to the VATECH29, PENALTY VATECH illegal block 14 yards to the VATECH12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+45
43.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 45 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
45.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
44.7%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
44.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Kaleb SmithSimilar
Q2 4:25
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
42.7%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 31 yds, downed at the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
9 plays · 91 yds · 3:2757% → 79%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
43.2%
Brittain Brown run for 9 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 22
+19
42.2%
Brittain Brown run for 4 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (TyJuan Garbutt) to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
41.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
40.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
40.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
50
+2
39.3%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+18
38.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 18 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
36.3%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
20.6%
Deon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13END OF HALF
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:3128% → 27%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
27.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Deshawn McCleaseSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
27.6%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Victor Dimukeje) to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
-9
26.8%
Ryan Willis sacked by Michael Carter II and Koby Quansah for a loss of 9 yards to the VTech 15Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 14
OWN 22
+22
26.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
27.5%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Phil PattersonSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
26.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:4877% → 80%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
23.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
22.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 5 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
22.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 9 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
21.6%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
21.4%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
20.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
50
-1
19.8%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+3
19.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 3 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 10:57
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
19.7%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3721% → 20%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
21.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
20.8%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+1
20.4%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
19.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:0183% → 93%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
17.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
17.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+5
16.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 5 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
15.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 18 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
14.5%
Quentin Harris run for 1 yd to the VTech 32Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+10
14.4%
Deon Jackson run for 10 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
13.5%
Quentin Harris run for 8 yds to the VTech 14Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
12.4%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
12.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q3 5:56
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
6.6%
AJ Reed 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:039% → 8%
Q3 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
9.2%
Keshawn King run for 5 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 5:08
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+6
9.2%
Hendon Hooker run for 6 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
8.6%
Keshawn King run for 1 yd to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
8.4%
Hendon Hooker pass incomplete to Damon HazeltonSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+8
8.1%
Hendon Hooker pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 8 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
8.0%
Hendon Hooker run for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
3.5%
Quentin Harris 42 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 0:373% → 7%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
3.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 5 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+1
2.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+72
7.0%
Damon Hazelton 72 Yd pass from Ryan Willis (Brian Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5496% → 99%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
4.5%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
4.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
4.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
3.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
3.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
3.4%
Quentin Harris run for 7 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
3.2%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 13:43
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+12
3.0%
Quentin Harris run for 12 yds to the VTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
2.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 13
OPP 32
+32
0.7%
Deon Jackson 32 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.7%
Tayvion Robinson run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
0.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 11 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
0.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for no gain to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
0.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
14 plays · 57 yds · 7:1499% → 100%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
0.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
0.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+2
0.5%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 3
50
+28
0.4%
Austin Parker run for 28 yds to the VTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
0.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
0.3%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the VTech 16Similar
Q4 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 16
-5
0.3%
DUKE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+2
0.3%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+12
0.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 12 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.2%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 8Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
0.1%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 9Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
0.2%
Chris Katrenick 9 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:530% → 0%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 7 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 5 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 2 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+3
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 3 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+5
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 5 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 7
50
0
0.1%
Caleb Steward run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:39
Deon Jackson 25 Yd pass from Jalon Calhoun (AJ Reed Kick)
-15.7
TD · Q2 11:20
Noah Gray 16 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)
-9.8
TD · Q2 6:43
Noah Gray 1 Yd pass from Quentin Harris (AJ Reed Kick)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com