2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadELON aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreELON score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:11 · Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds , Bryson Daughtry returns for 13 yds to the ElonU 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:28: Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:57: Davis Cheek pass complete to Avery Jones for 40 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK) — ELON win probability +1.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: ELON has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:51: Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +0.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:44: Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:23: Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ELON made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 4 at ELON 44, tiedClose callPunted · 96.2% before the snapGo for it96.2%48% to convertField goal96.0%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call96.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 13:47ELON 4th & 11 at ELON 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.1%average punt
- Q1 9:15ELON 4th & 10 at WAKE 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snapGo for it4.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.6%average punt
- Q1 4:28WAKE 4th & 6 at ELON 34, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.8%40% to convertField goal94.7%−<0.147% to makePunt94.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:51ELON 4th & 10 at ELON 18, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.8%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q2 8:24ELON 4th & 4 at ELON 38, down 14Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 5:11WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it93.8%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%average punt
- Q2 4:11ELON 4th & 14 at ELON 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.2%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00ELON 4th & 10 at ELON 25, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.328% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q3 14:09WAKE 4th & 1 at ELON 41, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%70% to convertField goal97.4%−0.532% to makePunt97.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:23WAKE 4th & 2 at ELON 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%57% to convertField goal97.9%−0.254% to makePunt97.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 9:23ELON 4th & 6 at ELON 10, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 4:51ELON 4th & 3 at ELON 32, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 7:16ELON 4th & 7 at ELON 40, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 6:17WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 41, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7ELON made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 9:15WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:28WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.4%97% to makeGo for two95.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:57ELON Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.0%97% to makeGo for two6.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:51WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two94.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.0%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:23WAKE Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:51WAKE Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:37WAKE Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
ELONDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+14
97.0%
Jaylan Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 17 for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the ElonU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+1
97.0%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Jackson Parham for 1 yd to the ElonU 31Similar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+25
97.1%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 39 yds , Sage Surratt returns for 25 yds to the ElonU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3TD8 plays · 45 yds · 2:1497% → 97%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
96.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 46Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+9
96.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds to the ElonU 37Similar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
96.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 16 yds to the ElonU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+12
96.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 12 yds to the ElonU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
96.6%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Cole Taylor for 6 yds to the ElonU 31Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
96.5%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Jackson Parham for 6 yds to the ElonU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
96.6%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Jackson Parham for 5 yds to the ElonU 42Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
96.6%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5TD7 plays · 82 yds · 1:5096% → 97%
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+15
96.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 15 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
96.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 25 yds to the ElonU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+3
96.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 3 yds to the ElonU 34Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+34
96.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 6TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:314% → 5%
WAKEDrive 7TD11 plays · 83 yds · 3:0695% → 96%
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
95.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 15 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
95.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 23 yds to the ElonU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
95.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds to the ElonU 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+23
95.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 23 yds to the ElonU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
95.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the ElonU 4Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.5%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Greg Liggs Jr.Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
WAKEDrive 9INT7 plays · 59 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
96.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 41 yds to the ElonU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-13
96.3%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the ElonU 20 WAKE FOREST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the ElonU 35Similar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 23
OPP 35
+6
96.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Cade Carney for 6 yds to the ElonU 29Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 17
OPP 29
+8
96.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 8 yds to the ElonU 21Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+14
96.2%
Jamie Newman run for 6 yds to the ElonU 15 for a 1ST down ELON Penalty, personal foul (Jamir Malone) to the ElonU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.3%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted, touchback. Daniel Reid-Bennett return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WAKEDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 5:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-3
95.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
95.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Greg Liggs Jr.Similar
Q2 5:11
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+13
95.1%
Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds , Bryson Daughtry returns for 13 yds to the ElonU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 4:11
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+5
95.1%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Cole Taylor for 5 yds to the ElonU 40Similar
Q2 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 40
-11
94.9%
Davis Cheek sacked by Justin Strnad for a loss of 11 yards to the ElonU 29Similar
Q2 4:11
4TH & 14
OWN 29
+53
95.3%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKEFOREST 28 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Offensive holding (Kenneth Walker III) to the WFrst 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13TD9 plays · 82 yds · 1:3595% → 98%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
95.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 7 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+6
95.4%
Newman, J sideline pass incomplete to Roberson, J (T. Jones), PENALTY ELON pass interference (T. Jones) 6 yards to the WF43, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
95.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 8 yds to the ElonU 49Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+6
95.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 6 yds to the ElonU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+48
98.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 14END OF HALF2 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Davis Cheek pass incomplete to Bryson Daughtry, broken up by Essang BasseySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.9%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 52 yds , Sage Surratt returns for 4 yds to the WFrst 29 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (Isaiah Essissima) to the WFrst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD12 plays · 83 yds · 4:4698% → 100%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
98.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for 11 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
98.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 12 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
50
+6
98.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 6 yds to the ElonU 44Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
98.4%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 2 yds to the ElonU 42Similar
Q3 9:23
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+31
99.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
WAKEDrive 18TD6 plays · 45 yds · 3:01100% → 100%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.8%
Michael Kern pass complete to Sage Surratt for 7 yds to the ElonU 38Similar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the ElonU 25 Kenneth Walker III fumbled, forced by Ty Sponseller, recovered by WFrst Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:51
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 49 yds , Ja'Sir Taylor returns for no gain to the WFrst 19 Ja'Sir Taylor fumbled, recovered by WFrst Ja'Sir TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD14 plays · 81 yds · 7:24100% → 100%
Q3 3:01
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+8
99.8%
Michael Kern pass complete to A.T. Perry for 8 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
99.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to A.T. Perry for 9 yds to the ElonU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:37
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
99.9%
Michael Kern pass complete to A.T. Perry for 17 yds for a TD, (Zach Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 21PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 3:210% → 0%
WAKEDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
ELONDrive 23END OF GAME5 plays · 31 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:44
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+14
100.0%
Joey Baughman pass complete to Bryson Daughtry for 14 yds to the ElonU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:44
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 48 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q1 0:57
Davis Cheek pass complete to Avery Jones for 40 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK)
-1.3
TD · Q3 9:23
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+1.3