2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · JMA Wireless Dome
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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreWMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:17 · LeVante Bellamy run for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:09: LeVante Bellamy run for 47 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +12.6 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:14: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 59 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +12.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:33: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 46 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +10.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:49: Sean Tyler run for 8 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +20.7 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q4 8:45: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +13.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 13:23WMU 4th & 1 at SYR 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call38.7%71% to convertField goal38.6%−0.184% to makePunt38.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 11:19SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 24, up 7Close callPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it61.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.8%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:00WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.4% before the snapGo for it37.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.5%average punt
- Q1 7:59SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it63.0%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.1%average punt
- Q2 11:42SYR 4th & 21 at WMU 43, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snapGo for it81.1%−1.49% to convertField goal81.9%−0.628% to makePuntTheir call82.4%average punt
- Q2 4:56WMU 4th & 2 at SYR 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call24.3%48% to convertField goal23.3%−1.094% to makePunt18.9%−5.5average punt
- Q2 2:28SYR 4th & 6 at WMU 6, up 8Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snapGo for it71.6%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call71.9%91% to makePunt66.6%−5.3average punt
- Q2 2:28WMU 4th & 11 at SYR 46, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.9% before the snapGo for it23.5%−0.127% to convertField goal23.2%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call23.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00WMU 4th & 13 at SYR 36, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it22.4%−0.721% to convertField goal23.0%−0.142% to makePuntTheir call23.0%average punt
- Q4 15:00SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 37, up 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snapGo for it68.6%−1.834% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.5%average punt
- Q4 13:41WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 41, down 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt30.3%−3.4average punt
- Q4 8:45WMU 4th & 10 at SYR 28, down 12Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 9.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.2%−1.429% to convertField goal9.6%60% to makePunt5.4%−4.2average punt
- Q4 6:37SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 32, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.9% before the snapGo for it93.5%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q4 4:10WMU 4th & 3 at WMU 27, down 12Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.6%−0.6average punt
- Q4 2:29SYR 4th & 8 at WMU 32, up 19Close callWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%−<0.134% to convertField goal98.8%51% to makePunt98.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 13:23SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.3%97% to makeGo for two61.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:29SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.3%97% to makeGo for two67.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:45SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call83.1%97% to makeGo for two83.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:09WMU Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.6%97% to makeGo for two24.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:56WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call30.1%97% to makeGo for two30.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:14SYR Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.6%97% to makeGo for two88.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:17WMU Touchdown, down 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick18.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call18.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:33SYR Touchdown, up 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.3%97% to makeGo for two92.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58WMU Touchdown, down 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call14.7%97% to makeGo for two14.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:49WMU Touchdown, down 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.1%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:45SYR Touchdown, up 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:04SYR Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%−0.497% to makeGo for two98.7%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD6 plays · 81 yds · 1:3756% → 57%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2DOWNS8 plays · 61 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
56.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 10 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
56.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to D'Wayne Eskridge, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+43
56.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to D'Wayne Eskridge for 43 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
56.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+6
56.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 6 yds to the Syrac 14Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 1
OPP 14
-1
56.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
57.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 14Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
57.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 5 yds to the Syrac 19Similar
Q1 11:19
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
57.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 5 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q1 11:19
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
57.5%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon Jr. at the WMich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
SYRDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
59.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 10 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+2
59.0%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 36 yds , Keith Mixon Jr. returns for 2 yds to the WMich 17 Keith Mixon Jr. fumbled, recovered by Syrac Abdul AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4661% → 65%
WMUDrive 7FUMBLE10 plays · 75 yds · 0:0036% → 38%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
63.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
63.1%
WASSINK, J. sideline pass incomplete to TYLER, S., PENALTY SU roughing passer 15 yards to the WMU49, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+24
63.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 24 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
62.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Scoop BradshawSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+19
62.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 19 yds to the Syrac 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
62.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 11 yds LeVante Bellamy fumbled, forced by Antwan Cordy, recovered by Syrac Christopher FredrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8TD13 plays · 80 yds · 5:1167% → 80%
Q1 2:56
2ND & 19
OWN 11
-5
66.5%
DeVito, T. pass complete to Adams, A. for 17 yards to the SU28, out-of-bounds (THOMAS, A.J.), PENALTY SU face mask 5 yards to the SU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 24
OWN 6
+22
66.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 7 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
66.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 6 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
67.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 6 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-7
69.6%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Timothy Collins for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+22
68.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for 22 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
69.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 4 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
69.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Nykeim Johnson for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9FUMBLE6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 12:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+21
79.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 21 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 15
OWN 41
-6
79.3%
Jon Wassink sacked by Alton Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the WMich 32 Jon Wassink fumbled, recovered by Syrac Kenneth Ruff , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
WMUDrive 11TD4 plays · 91 yds · 1:1619% → 31%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
81.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon Bussell, broken up by Allen StritzingerSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+5
81.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 5 yds to the WMich 14Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 5
OWN 14
+39
81.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 39 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
WMUDrive 13TD9 plays · 27 yds · 3:3832% → 33%
SYRDrive 14FG11 plays · 44 yds · 2:2870% → 74%
Q2 4:56
2ND & 10
50
+5
70.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 5 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+14
69.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 14 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+12
70.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 12 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
70.7%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the WMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
69.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 6 SYRACUSE Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
72.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 4 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16END OF HALF7 plays · 19 yds · 0:1675% → 76%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
76.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+23
73.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 23 yds to the Syrac 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
72.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Tyron Arnett for 13 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
71.6%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy Moore, broken up by Christopher FredrickSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 36
+12
75.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 31 yds , Sean Riley returns for 12 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18TD5 plays · 83 yds · 1:1677% → 90%
WMUDrive 19TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:5715% → 23%
Q3 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
77.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 43 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20TD6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4482% → 94%
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
82.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 6 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+7
83.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 7 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
93.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 46 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21TD5 plays · 75 yds · 1:3510% → 18%
Q3 7:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
89.9%
WASSINK, J. crossing pass incomplete to MOORE, S., PENALTY SU pass interference 13 yards to the WMU40, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+60
81.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 60 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22FUMBLE9 plays · 16 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+4
83.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for 4 yds to the Syrac 18Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+2
83.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Cameron Jordan for 2 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+5
82.7%
Hofrichter, S. punt 44 yards to the WMU31, fair catch by MIXON JR., K., PENALTY WMU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the SU30, 1ST DOWN SU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
84.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 8 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+1
84.2%
Abdul Adams run for 1 yd to the Syrac 35 Abdul Adams fumbled, forced by Ali Fayad, recovered by WMich Patrick LuproSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD8 plays · 35 yds · 3:0620% → 41%
SYRDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 0:4969% → 68%
WMUDrive 25DOWNS7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0032% → 34%
SYRDrive 26TD5 plays · 41 yds · 1:3379% → 93%
WMUDrive 27DOWNS10 plays · 47 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.4%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the WMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
90.2%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
89.9%
Jon Wassink sacked by Lakiem Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 15
50
+12
91.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 12 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+10
89.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 10 yds to the Syrac 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 28PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 6:37
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
93.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon Jr. at the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
SYRDrive 30TD5 plays · 27 yds · 0:3696% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 31INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
SYRDrive 32END OF GAME5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:49
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)
-20.7
TD · Q4 8:45
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 9 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+13.7
TD · Q2 9:09
LeVante Bellamy run for 47 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)
-12.6