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UCF

UCF 34 at Pittsburgh 35

PITT
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:58 · TEAM punt blocked by Aaron Mathews, Wendell Davis return for 18 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior−20.7Home team on offense+12.7Score differential+8.9Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:49: Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +15.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:25: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +16.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 6:19: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +10.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:11: Nick Patti pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK) — PITT win probability +18.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 0:59: Kenny Pickett 3 Yd pass from Aaron Mathews (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +56.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 10 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:31UCF 4th & 18 at UCF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:33PITT 4th & 7 at UCF 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:17UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56PITT 4th & 6 at UCF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:57UCF 4th & 2 at PITT 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−1.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    49.4%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:33PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:09UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 37, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:04PITT 4th & 9 at UCF 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    65.6%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:04UCF 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.1%−5.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:46PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:40PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−4.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:52PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−1.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:41UCF 4th & 16 at UCF 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−4.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:28UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 31, up 3
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:50PITT 4th & 4 at UCF 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−13.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:32UCF 4th & 2 at PITT 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    68.0%−2.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−18.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:07PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−2.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:47UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.8%−6.8
    average punt
  21. Q4 4:36UCF 4th & 7 at PITT 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−20.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:59PITT 4th & 2 at UCF 3, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.8%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    14.0%−9.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    8.7%−15.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:00UCF 4th & 22 at UCF 13, down 1
    Close callWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.2%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:36PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:31PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:49UCF Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:25UCF Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:19UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:11PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:59PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−7.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:2279% → 78%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.3%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
21.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-5
21.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Patrick Jones II for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 18
OWN 17
-3
22.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 55 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3422% → 26%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.1%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
22.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 15 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
22.6%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+3
22.9%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
23.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+3
23.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+10
23.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 10 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
24.1%
UCF Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (5 Yards) to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+24
24.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 24 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3INT
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:3974% → 75%
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
25.8%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Harris, Jacob, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 10 yards to the UCF36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+36
25.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 36 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
25.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Phil Campbell III return for 13 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5127% → 29%
Q1 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
26.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 22 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
27.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
27.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
27.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 10 yds to the UCF 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
28.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Landon Woodson for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 6:25
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+17
28.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 17 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
29.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
29.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 3 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
29.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Dontavius Butler-JenkinsSimilar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
29.2%
Alex Kessman 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0971% → 70%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
28.9%
Brandon Wimbush run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 5:17
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-1
29.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 13
OWN 17
+11
30.0%
Otis Anderson run for 11 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 4:17
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
30.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 44 yds, downed at the Pitt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:3930% → 43%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
30.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
30.3%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 3:34
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+14
30.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 14 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
32.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+8
32.7%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
33.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
33.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 4 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
33.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+11
32.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 11 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
35.1%
Nick Patti run for 8 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+14
35.5%
Maurice Ffrench run for 14 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7INT
15 plays · 58 yds · 2:4259% → 58%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
40.3%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
41.2%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
41.3%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
41.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+8
42.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
42.0%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete to Harris, Jacob, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
41.8%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+4
42.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 4 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 12:13
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+5
42.3%
Otis Anderson run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+13
42.7%
Otis Anderson run for 13 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
42.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
42.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted, touchback. Jason Pinnock return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5846% → 46%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
46.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 19Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
46.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
46.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9PUNT TD
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2753% → 35%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
46.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-7
47.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+1
48.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+18
65.3%
TEAM punt blocked by Aaron Mathews, Wendell Davis return for 18 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4335% → 32%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
64.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
64.8%
Greg McCrae run for 10 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
65.0%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
64.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 8
OWN 41
-4
65.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Habakkuk Baldonado for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 12
OWN 37
0
67.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 58 yds, downed at the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:2174% → 77%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
74.4%
A.J. Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+5
74.3%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
75.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Carter Warren) to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+14
76.7%
A.J. Davis run for 14 yds to the Pitt 27 A.J. Davis fumbled, forced by Eric Mitchell, recovered by UCF Tay GowanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 0:4435% → 50%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
65.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+10
65.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jazzee Stocker) to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
65.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the Pitt 11Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
50.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 3:3356% → 63%
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
55.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
57.1%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
58.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+1
59.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to V'Lique Carter for 1 yd to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+13
59.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 13 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
61.8%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+4
63.1%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 9
OPP 38
0
64.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
63.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 68 yds · 0:5139% → 43%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+41
61.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 41 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
58.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
56.1%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
58.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
58.8%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH personal foul 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
57.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 10
OPP 25
0
58.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 0:04
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+43
57.3%
Dylan Barnas 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0659% → 60%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
58.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
59.5%
A.J. Davis run for 5 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
59.9%
A.J. Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-3
62.1%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
61.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to A.J. DavisSimilar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
59.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:1439% → 60%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
60.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 2 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+65
61.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 65 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
56.7%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+5
57.0%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Pitt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
40.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 10 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 8 yds · 2:3246% → 32%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
46.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
49.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 12 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-15
50.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 25
OWN 20
+4
50.1%
Vincent Davis run for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 9:36
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+7
49.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 8:40
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+87
31.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 56 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 87 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4134% → 32%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
33.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to V'Lique CarterSimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
32.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:2568% → 82%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
31.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+32
31.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 32 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
28.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jake Hescock for 6 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-1
28.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+28
18.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5919% → 42%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
19.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
20.2%
UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cam Goode) to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+25
21.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 10 yds to the PITTSBURGH 43 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+20
22.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 11 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
22.7%
V'Lique Carter run for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
41.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0467% → 63%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
33.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the UCF 35 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by UCF , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
32.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
32.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-6
34.5%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 2:41
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
36.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:4736% → 33%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
36.0%
Ffrench, Maurice rush for 1 yard to the PITTSBURGH21, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Gragg, Will) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+10
35.9%
Nick Patti run for 10 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
36.1%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Dontavius Butler-JenkinsSimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+10
32.2%
Nick Patti pass complete to Taysir Mack for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
35.0%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+2
35.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34 Kenny Pickett fumbled, forced by Brendon Hayes, recovered by Pitt A.J. DavisSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
34.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
33.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1167% → 66%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
33.1%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+6
33.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 6 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
32.0%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+12
34.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 39 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for 12 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2939% → 37%
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.3%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
41.2%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
40.0%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Mack, Taysir, PENALTY UCF roughing passer (Hayes, Brendon) 15 yards to the UCF29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
42.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
42.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+2
40.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 2 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 10:50
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
36.5%
Alex Kessman 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26DOWNS
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1170% → 74%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
29.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+2
29.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+50
29.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 50 yds to the Pitt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
22.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
22.5%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 2
OPP 15
0
23.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jake HescockSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+1
25.8%
Greg McCrae run for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2033% → 30%
Q4 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
33.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
32.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
31.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Dontavius Butler-JenkinsSimilar
Q4 8:07
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
29.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 3:2473% → 85%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
26.8%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
26.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
27.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+2
27.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
23.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+37
24.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 37 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
19.6%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 5:25
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
20.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
20.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 20
OPP 24
+13
23.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 13 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 4:36
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
15.5%
Dylan Barnas 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 3:2421% → 80%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
21.2%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+7
23.5%
Vincent Davis run for 7 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
22.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 12 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
25.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
27.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
30.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Will GraggSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
27.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Nakia Griffin-StewartSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+5
23.5%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
29.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 19 yds to the UCF 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
28.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
29.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+4
25.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
79.9%
Kenny Pickett 3 Yd pass from Aaron Mathews (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:3429% → 18%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
71.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Deslin Alexandre for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
72.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-9
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+8
82.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 21, Tre Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the UFC 20, Greg McCrae for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:59
Kenny Pickett 3 Yd pass from Aaron Mathews (Alex Kessman Kick)
+56.1
TD · Q3 4:11
Nick Patti pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex Kessman KICK)
+18.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com