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APP

App State 34 at North Carolina 31

UNC
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:39 · Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Home team on offense−1.5Score differential−0.4Pregame prior+6.2Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:56: Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +15.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:01: Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +9.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:18: Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +16.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q3 2:11: Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK) — APP win probability +16.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:01: Sam Howell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — UNC win probability +26.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7APP made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 11:06APP 4th & 12 at UNC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    39.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:02UNC 4th & 2 at UNC 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:42APP 4th & 21 at UNC 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.9
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 37, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:44UNC 4th & 3 at APP 17, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    41.3%−3.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:57UNC 4th & 5 at APP 8, down 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00APP 4th & 1 at APP 34, up 10
    Close callPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:20UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:18APP 4th & 4 at UNC 42, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 64.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.1%−2.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03UNC 4th & 1 at APP 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    33.1%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00APP 4th & 9 at APP 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−2.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:22UNC 4th & 9 at APP 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:16APP 4th & 10 at APP 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−2.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:11APP 4th & 7 at APP 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4APP made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:43UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:29APP Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:56APP Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:01UNC Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:18UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:11APP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:01UNC Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
57.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 21 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 2FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:3742% → 42%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
57.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 36Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
57.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 4 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+13
57.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 13 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+35
57.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 35 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
57.7%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
57.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 2
OPP 4
-10
57.7%
Zac Thomas sacked by Dominique Ross for a loss of 10 yards to the NCaro 14Similar
Q1 11:06
4TH & 12
OPP 14
+31
58.3%
Chandler Staton 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
58.2%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+1
58.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+1
58.4%
Jace Ruder run for 1 yd to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
58.2%
Ben Kiernan punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 4FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4041% → 41%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
58.8%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
58.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 4 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+6
58.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 6 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Dominique RossSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
58.7%
Zac Thomas run for 3 yds to the AppSt 35Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+50
58.8%
Zac Thomas run for 50 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
58.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 15
OPP 20
-5
58.0%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 20
OPP 25
-1
58.1%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 21
OPP 26
0
58.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Darrynton EvansSimilar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 21
OPP 26
0
58.6%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Corey Sutton, broken up by Greg RossSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 21
OPP 26
+43
59.2%
Chandler Staton 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FUMBLE TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5859% → 55%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
58.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 10 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
59.1%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
59.2%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+20
55.0%
Sam Howell sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 9 yards Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by AppSt Demetrius Taylor , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
55.2%
Javonte Williams run for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
55.5%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-5
55.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 3:39
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+3
55.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 3:39
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+1
54.9%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
54.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:1246% → 47%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
53.8%
Daetrich Harrington run for 2 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+10
53.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 10 yds to the AppSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
53.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-4
52.3%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+2
53.0%
Zac Thomas pass intercepted Myles Wolfolk return for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 3 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
55.4%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+19
54.9%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Demetrius Taylor return for 19 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 1:1050% → 56%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
50.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 13:39
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+14
50.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 14 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
50.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 1 yd to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
44.2%
Darrynton Evans run for 5 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FG
18 plays · 61 yds · 5:2747% → 44%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.5%
Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
47.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+1
46.8%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
46.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
46.7%
Sam Howell run for 15 yds to the AppSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
47.5%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the AppSt 43Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+4
47.4%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+15
47.3%
Howell, S middle pass incomplete to Corrales, B (Jolly,Shaun), PENALTY APP pass interference (Jolly,Shaun) 15 yards to the APP24, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
48.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
48.3%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 17
0
47.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 8:44
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+4
43.2%
Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the AppSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
44.5%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the AppSt 9Similar
Q2 8:44
2ND & 6
OPP 9
0
44.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Demetrius TaylorSimilar
Q2 8:44
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+1
43.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the AppSt 8Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 5
OPP 8
+25
44.0%
Noah Ruggles 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 11TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:5657% → 74%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
43.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 9 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+3
42.2%
Daetrich Harrington run for 3 yds to the AppSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
42.4%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 38
0
41.7%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas Hennigan, broken up by Dominique RossSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+27
41.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, targeting (Jeremiah Gemmel) to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
41.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+31
41.4%
Darrynton Evans run for 31 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
41.1%
Darrynton Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
41.1%
Zac Thomas run for 5 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.0%
Darrynton Evans run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5531% → 41%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
31.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 22Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+10
30.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
31.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
33.2%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
33.3%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
33.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 15 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
34.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 20 yds to the AppSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
31.2%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
41.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 1 yd to the AppSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
38.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
39.6%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 8 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
39.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-9
36.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Demetrius Taylor and Trey Cobb for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 13Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 19
OWN 13
+5
36.0%
Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 14
OWN 18
+13
34.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 13 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-5
35.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 13:20
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
34.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 35 yds, downed at the AppSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
33.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 7 yds to the AppSt 46Similar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+6
33.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
33.8%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Thomas HenniganSimilar
Q3 11:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
33.9%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Corey Sutton for 6 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
34.3%
Zac Thomas pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
35.2%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds, downed at the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
16 plays · 98 yds · 5:4533% → 55%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
33.2%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+8
33.1%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
33.4%
Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+10
34.2%
Javonte Williams run for 10 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
34.2%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 5
OWN 38
-3
35.4%
Sam Howell sacked by Demetrius Taylor for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 35 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Joshua Ezeudu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+9
33.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 9 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
35.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antonio Williams for 7 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
36.1%
Antonio Williams run for 2 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+1
34.8%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the AppSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
36.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 18 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-10
38.2%
Howell, S pass complete to Groves, R for 1 yard to the APP27 (Fehr,Jordan), PENALTY NC holding (Bargas, J) 10 yards to the APP38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 20
OPP 38
+21
36.0%
Javonte Williams run for 21 yds to the AppSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
38.2%
Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the AppSt 12Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
54.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0755% → 76%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.3%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Jalen Virgil for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+31
45.7%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 31 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+43
41.8%
Zac Thomas pass complete to Malik Williams for 43 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19INT
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:0026% → 30%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
26.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 24 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
28.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 20 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
29.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
29.9%
Sam Howell pass intercepted Akeem Davis-Gaither return for no gain to the AppSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1974% → 72%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
26.3%
Daetrich Harrington run for 4 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
26.0%
Daetrich Harrington run for no gain to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-3
25.9%
Zac Thomas sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 28
+5
27.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 26 , Dazz Newsome returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 3:5825% → 18%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
24.8%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
24.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+13
23.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 13 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
25.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 4 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
26.6%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-5
25.7%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Brian Anderson) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+12
24.5%
Sam Howell run for 12 yds to the AppSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
27.9%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
27.5%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
26.5%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Nicholas RossSimilar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
17.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
16.6%
Darrynton Evans run for 10 yds to the AppSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
16.5%
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
16.5%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+18
16.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 18 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
15.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 44Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
15.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the AppSt 48Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-1
15.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 5
OWN 47
-5
16.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 42Similar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
16.8%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:3112% → 44%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
12.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
12.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
14.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 7 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Akeem Davis-Gaither) to the AppSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
18.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 8 yds to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+11
18.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 11 yds to the AppSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
18.0%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the AppSt 7Similar
Q4 5:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
18.0%
Rontavius Groves run for 5 yds to the AppSt 2Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 20 yds · 0:5075% → 80%
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
24.6%
Daetrich Harrington run for 5 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 2:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
22.2%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the AppSt 30Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
21.9%
Zac Thomas run for 12 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
18.5%
Daetrich Harrington run for 1 yd to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+7
15.9%
Darrynton Evans run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 2
50
0
16.1%
Darrynton Evans run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 2
50
-5
18.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 2:11
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
19.6%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:3019% → 18%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.6%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+17
18.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 17 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
19.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
19.7%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+24
17.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 24 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+56
18.3%
Noah Ruggles 56 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Akeem Davis-GaitherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:01
Sam Howell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+26
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.3
TD · Q3 2:11
Darrynton Evans run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)
-16.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com