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CMU

Central Michigan 12 at Miami 17

MIA
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Lou Hedley punt for 57 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 3 yds to the CMich 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+41.3Home team on offense+3.1Garbage-time factor+1.0Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:45: Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 11:41: Bubba Baxa 22 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +4.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:16: David Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +18.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16: Ryan Tice kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — MIA win probability +7.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16: DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30 — MIA win probability +5.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 10 at MIA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:32MIA 4th & 1 at CMU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    95.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:32CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:57MIA 4th & 3 at CMU 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:43CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22MIA 4th & 16 at MIA 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:24CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:22CMU 4th & 20 at CMU 48, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:57CMU 4th & 12 at MIA 36, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    42% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:57MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 41, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:20CMU 4th & 10 at MIA 44, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:22MIA 4th & 22 at MIA 8, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:27CMU 4th & 7 at MIA 37, down 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.3%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:41MIA 4th & 5 at CMU 5, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−4.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:41CMU 4th & 1 at MIA 46, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−2.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−1.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:41CMU 4th & 3 at MIA 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−1.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:04MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 38, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:32MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:45MIA Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:16CMU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 13 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
97.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+6
97.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
97.3%
Brady Buell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
97.3%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kobe Lewis, broken up by Gilbert FriersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
97.3%
Lew Nichols run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
97.3%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 4:0897% → 97%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+38
96.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 38 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
97.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 12 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
97.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+21
97.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 21 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
97.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
97.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the CMich 2Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
97.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the CMich 1Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 3%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.5%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+6
96.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
96.6%
Brady Buell punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+27
96.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 27 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
96.5%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+5
96.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 3
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 6:57
4TH & 3
OPP 23
0
96.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Brevin Jordan, broken up by Andrew WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FUMBLE
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:194% → 5%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
96.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Luke Goedeke) to the CMich 18Similar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 15
OWN 18
0
96.1%
David Moore pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 15
OWN 18
+10
96.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 10 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 5:06
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+17
96.1%
David Moore pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 17 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
96.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
96.0%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+15
95.7%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 15 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
95.5%
MOORE, David pass incomplete to PIMPLETON, K., PENALTY UM pass interference (Finley, R.) 10 yards to the UM29, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
95.4%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
95.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 8
OPP 27
-7
95.5%
David Moore sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 34 David Moore fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Gregory Rousseau , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:0296% → 95%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
95.6%
Mike Harley run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-11
95.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 4 yds to the MiaFl 43 MIAMI FL Penalty, illegal block (Mike Harley) to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
95.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 5 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
95.3%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike Harley, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 33
+3
95.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 57 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
95.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 7 yds to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+10
95.2%
MOORE, David pass incomplete to SULLIVAN, J., PENALTY UM pass interference (Bandy, T.) 10 yards to the CMU30, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.2%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
95.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
95.1%
Lew Nichols run for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+11
95.3%
David Moore run for 11 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
95.0%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 14:43
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
95.1%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 14:43
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
95.3%
Brady Buell punt for 45 yds, downed at the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8SF
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:5095% → 94%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
94.8%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
-2
94.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 5
-5
93.5%
Jarren Williams sacked by Jacques Bristol for a loss of 5 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FUMBLE
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
94.2%
Lew Nichols run for 3 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
94.2%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
94.3%
MOORE, David pass incomplete to SCOTT, Tyrone, PENALTY UM illegal helmet contact (Garvin, J.) 15 yards to the CMU39, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
93.9%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-1
94.0%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+20
94.2%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 20 yds to the MIAMI 42 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
93.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-5
93.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Derek Smith) to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
93.7%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+11
93.7%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-4
93.4%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 14
OPP 30
-9
93.7%
David Moore sacked by Jonathan Garvin for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 40 David Moore fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Pat Bethel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
93.6%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 2 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+11
93.2%
Jarren Williams run for 11 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
93.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-5
93.5%
Jeff Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 46 Jeff Thomas fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jarren WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+6
93.1%
Jarren Williams run for 6 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 11
OPP 48
-5
93.0%
Hedley, L. punt 45 yards to the CMU3, downed, PENALTY UM illegal formation (Knowles, R.) 5 yards to the UM47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 16
OWN 47
0
92.9%
TEAM punt, downed at the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:338% → 8%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 38Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-11
91.9%
David Moore sacked by Trevon Hill for a loss of 11 yards to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 20
OWN 27
+6
92.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 14
OWN 33
+16
92.3%
Brady Buell punt for 51 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for 16 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
91.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 19 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-6
92.4%
Jarren Williams sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 16
OWN 45
-7
91.6%
Jarren Williams sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 42 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by CMich Jacques Bristol , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:2510% → 8%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.9%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
90.1%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-10
90.5%
David Moore sacked by Trajan Bandy for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 0:22
4TH & 20
OWN 48
0
91.6%
Brady Buell punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
89.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1591% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.1%
Dee Wiggins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+22
91.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 22 yds to the MiaFl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
91.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for 19 yds to the MIAMI 36 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (Corey Gaynor) to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 1
OPP 46
+1
92.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
92.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 25 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
92.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
92.2%
Williams, J. pass incomplete to Thomas, J., PENALTY CMU pass interference (WARD, Jonathan) 8 yards to the CMU9, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
92.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:486% → 6%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.9%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
David Moore pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for no gain to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
93.7%
David Moore pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 1 yd to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (Robert Knowles) to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
93.2%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 13 yds to the MiaFl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
92.8%
Lew Nichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
93.4%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kobe Lewis, broken up by Michael PinckneySimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 12
OPP 36
0
93.6%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 12
OPP 36
+54
93.9%
Ryan Tice 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-1
94.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
94.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 6 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
94.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 33 yds, downed at the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+30
93.8%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 30 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.8%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
93.0%
David Moore pass incomplete to Bernhard Raimann, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
Q3 5:20
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
93.2%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
93.6%
Brady Buell punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
94.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-12
94.5%
Jarren Williams sacked by LaQuan Johnson for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 8 MIAMI FL Penalty, intentional grounding (Jarren Williams) to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 22
OWN 8
0
94.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for no gain to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q3 4:22
4TH & 22
OWN 8
+11
93.8%
Lou Hedley punt for 43 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:178% → 9%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
92.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
92.4%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Al Blades Jr.Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 8
OPP 38
-5
92.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Steve Eipper) to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+6
93.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 6 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+55
90.8%
Ryan Tice 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:4692% → 95%
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+19
91.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 19 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
92.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 13 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
92.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+10
92.3%
Jeff Thomas run for 10 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+18
92.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 18 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
92.4%
Williams, J. pass incomplete to Mallory, W., PENALTY CMU personal foul (HAIRSTON, Troy) 7 yards to the CMU7, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
92.4%
Dallas, D. rush for no gain to the CMU7, out-of-bounds (JONES, Chuck;JOHNSON, LaQuan), PENALTY UM holding (Hodges, L.) 10 yards to the CMU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
92.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
92.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the CMich 17Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+7
91.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 7 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 11:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
90.6%
Baxa, B. field goal attempt from 27 MISSED - wide right,, clock 11:46, PENALTY CMU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the CMU5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
95.3%
Bubba Baxa 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
23 plays · 55 yds · 8:258% → 24%
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
91.8%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 1 yd to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
92.0%
David Moore pass incomplete to Bernhard Raimann, broken up by Amari CarterSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+8
92.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+5
92.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
91.5%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Gilbert FriersonSimilar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
91.6%
David Moore pass incomplete to Bernhard RaimannSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+7
92.0%
David Moore run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+5
92.1%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
94.5%
David Moore pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
94.5%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
94.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.0%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q4 8:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
95.3%
MOORE, David pass incomplete to POLJAN, Tony, PENALTY UM holding (Pinckney, M.) 2 yards to the UM3, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-3
94.5%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
94.5%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Tony Poljan) to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+10
94.7%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 9 yds to the MiaFl 2 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (Scott Patchan) to the MiaFl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for no gain to the UM1 (Bethel, P.), PENALTY UM offside (Patchan, S.) 0 yards to the UM1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
Lew Nichols run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
MOORE, David pass incomplete to LAW, Drayton, PENALTY UM pass interference (Bandy, T.) 0 yards to the UM1, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.5%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.3%
David Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:1290% → 92%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
91.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
92.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
92.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-1
92.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+2
91.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 59 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 2 yds to the CMich 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
91.4%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
91.6%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tony PoljanSimilar
Q4 0:39
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+24
92.0%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 24 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.0%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
90.6%
David Moore pass intercepted Al Blades Jr. return for no gain to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:16
David Moore run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
-18.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16
Ryan Tice kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+7.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:16
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com