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LOU

Louisville 24 at Florida State 35

FSU
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:30 · Mason King punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Home team on offense+4.9Pregame prior+13.3Score differential+1.4Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:44: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +8.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:57: Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +20.5 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 14:22: Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 74 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +22.1 pts (now 54%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:25: Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 60 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +34.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:55FSU 4th & 2 at LOU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:13LOU 4th & 3 at FSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    29.8%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 8, down 14
    Close callPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:52FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:53LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:06FSU 4th & 6 at LOU 34, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.5%−0.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:29LOU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 1 at LOU 30, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.8%−1.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    83.2%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:21LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:28FSU 4th & 12 at FSU 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:55LOU 4th & 4 at FSU 12, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−6.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:41FSU 4th & 17 at LOU 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.1%
    68% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:38FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 45, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:05FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.7
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:53LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:31LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.6%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:11FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:44LOU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:57LOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:22LOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:25FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:37FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 1:5067% → 67%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
67.1%
Cam Akers run for 17 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.2%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
67.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 6 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
67.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
67.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 13:02
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+6
67.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-3
67.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0533% → 33%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
66.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
66.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
66.8%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 7
OWN 32
+40
67.0%
Mason King punt for 40 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:0167% → 69%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
66.8%
James Blackman run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+29
67.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 29 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
67.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
67.3%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+17
67.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 17 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
67.3%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 5:2032% → 31%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
68.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 6 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
68.5%
Maurice Burkley run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
68.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Hassan Hall for 10 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-7
68.5%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 17
OWN 36
+3
69.0%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+16
69.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
68.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 4:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+1
68.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+3
68.6%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 3:13
4TH & 3
OPP 38
-1
69.1%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:1270% → 75%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
70.4%
Khalan Laborn run for 17 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
75.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 44 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5826% → 25%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
73.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 7 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 3
OWN 8
0
74.1%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
74.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
74.6%
Mason King punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 1:1276% → 83%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
76.0%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 11 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
76.1%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-5
76.1%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 14
OPP 32
-5
76.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 19
OPP 37
+15
76.2%
Blackman, James pass incomplete to Terry, Tamorrion, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q1 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
76.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 18 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.5%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:4918% → 16%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.3%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
82.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
83.1%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 31Similar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
84.2%
Mason King punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4885% → 85%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
84.8%
James Blackman sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+1
85.2%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+6
85.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 6
OWN 28
0
85.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Javian Hawkins at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4714% → 14%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
85.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
86.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
86.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+11
86.5%
Mason King punt for 60 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11MISSED FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:3188% → 89%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.2%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
88.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 4 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 8:51
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+20
88.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
50
+8
89.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Warren Thompson for 8 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+4
89.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
88.9%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
89.0%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
89.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 7:06
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+51
88.9%
Ricky Aguayo 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
18 plays · 66 yds · 6:0413% → 19%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
87.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
87.3%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+9
88.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
88.0%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 47
0
88.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 4:22
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+3
89.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 8
50
+9
89.7%
Tabarius Peterson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
89.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+2
89.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
89.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
89.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Davis for 18 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
89.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+7
89.9%
Cunningham, Malik pass incomplete to Dawkins, Seth, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 7 yards to the FLORIDAST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
89.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
89.7%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
80.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 45 yds · 0:3684% → 84%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
84.2%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
84.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 22 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
84.9%
Alex Hornibrook run for 9 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
83.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to Cam AkersSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+47
83.7%
Ricky Aguayo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:2417% → 16%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
82.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-4
82.5%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.0%
Mason King punt for 45 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3885% → 84%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.5%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
84.9%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
84.4%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
85.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-4
85.7%
James Blackman sacked by Dorian Etheridge for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
84.9%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:28
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+10
84.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 39 yds , Javian Hawkins returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 3:1916% → 20%
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
83.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
82.9%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+9
82.7%
Hassan Hall run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
82.9%
Hassan Hall run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+14
81.8%
Cunningham, Malik pass incomplete to Wakefield, Keion, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (Becker III, Carlos) 14 yards to the FLORIDAST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
81.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
82.0%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-5
83.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+2
83.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
80.1%
Blanton Creque 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 3:0183% → 83%
Q3 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
82.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
83.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 11 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
83.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 17 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
84.1%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+17
84.1%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 17 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-16
84.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the Lvile 33 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Alex HornibrookSimilar
Q3 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 26
OPP 33
+9
83.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 17
OPP 24
+41
83.1%
Ricky Aguayo 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:2717% → 38%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
83.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
82.7%
Hassan Hall run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
83.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Isaac Martin for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+1
82.8%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44Similar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
83.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+48
82.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 48 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
62.4%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:5872% → 71%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
71.9%
Cam Akers run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
74.1%
Alex Hornibrook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
74.0%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
73.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
70.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Javian Hawkins at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 0:3831% → 54%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
69.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+4
68.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
46.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 74 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1149% → 47%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Alex Hornibrook pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.6%
Alex Hornibrook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 13:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
46.7%
Tommy Martin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Javian Hawkins at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:0255% → 67%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
44.6%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+14
42.2%
Hassan Hall run for 14 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
38.8%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Levonta Taylor for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+29
41.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 29 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
33.6%
Hassan Hall run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-4
32.3%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q4 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+3
33.2%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Cyrus Fagan return for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:0343% → 79%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
42.7%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
43.3%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.7%
Tre'Shaun Harrison run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
41.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+24
41.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 24 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
44.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+60
78.8%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 60 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0530% → 27%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
69.6%
Malik Cunningham run for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 17 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by Lvile Javian HawkinsSimilar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
70.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+4
72.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 5:53
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+4
73.3%
Mason King punt for 44 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 4 yds to the Lvile 25 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 46 yds · 3:4684% → 97%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
83.7%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+13
86.5%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 13 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-3
87.3%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 13
OPP 27
+8
87.1%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+9
87.4%
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
88.5%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
90.8%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
90.5%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 2:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
90.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing the Kicker ( Yards) to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.3%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.5%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-8
97.7%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 13Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+19
97.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 0:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+20
97.6%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 20 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
96.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 9 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 1
OPP 39
0
96.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-3
96.9%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Janarius Robinson for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 32 Malik Cunningham fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Marvin Wilson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:25
Alex Hornibrook pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 60 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+34.6
TD · Q4 14:22
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 74 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-22.1
TD · Q3 1:57
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-20.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com