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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:03 · B.T. Potter 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:56: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:31: Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 4:27: Jonathan Cruz 24 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CLT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 14:07CLT 4th & 4 at CLT 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 8:16CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 28, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 5:03CLEM 4th & 5 at CLT 5, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call98.5%92% to makePunt98.0%−0.5average punt
- Q1 2:34CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 12:18CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 48, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 4:27CLT 4th & 6 at CLEM 7, down 31Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call0.7%91% to makePunt0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 13:38CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 35, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 11:10CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 9, down 35Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:12CLT 4th & 6 at CLT 40, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 14:10CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 40, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:21CLEM 4th & 10 at CLEM 43, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 7:34CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 40, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:31CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 25, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 0:00CLEM 4th & 1 at CLT 27, up 42Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−0.171% to convertField goal100.0%62% to makePunt99.8%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:35CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:24CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:56CLEM Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:31CLEM Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:24CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:51CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:53CLT Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:12CLEM Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:331% → 1%
Q1 14:07
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Connor Bowler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Amari Rodgers at the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:2199% → 99%
CLTDrive 3INT TD8 plays · 30 yds · 3:011% → 1%
Q1 10:24
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+66
99.0%
Chris Reynolds pass intercepted for a TD K'Von Wallace return for 66 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:521% → 1%
CLEMDrive 5FG10 plays · 59 yds · 2:5799% → 99%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
99.0%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Higgins, Tee, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for no gain to the Charl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 2:141% → 1%
Q1 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
98.8%
Reynolds, Chris pass complete to Dollar, Cameron for no gain to the CHARLOTTE26, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding 10 yards to the CHARLOTTE16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+20
98.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 53 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 20 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7TD8 plays · 60 yds · 2:2499% → 99%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 6 yds to the Charl 35Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+14
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joe Ngata for 14 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
98.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to J.C. Chalk for 3 yds to the Charl 18Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+11
98.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Joe Ngata for 11 yds to the Charl 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8DOWNS6 plays · 23 yds · 2:121% → 1%
CLEMDrive 9TD10 plays · 48 yds · 3:2499% → 99%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
99.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for 7 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
99.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Will Swinney for 4 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+15
99.2%
Brice, Chase pass incomplete to Rodgers, Amari, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference (Pitman, Jonnie) 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE5, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10FG12 plays · 68 yds · 3:411% → 0%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+30
99.5%
Benny LeMay run for 15 yds to the CLEMSON 42 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
99.5%
LeMay, Benny rush for no gain to the CLEMSON27, PENALTY CHARLOTTE holding 10 yards to the CLEMSON37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 17
OPP 23
+23
99.6%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Noah Henderson for 11 yds to the Clem 23 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (12 Yards) to the Clem 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11TD10 plays · 69 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+18
99.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Diondre Overton for 18 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
99.7%
Brice, Chase pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank, PENALTY CHARLOTTE pass interference 15 yards to the CHARLOTTE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF3 plays · 5 yds · 0:440% → 0%
CLEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:42100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:150% → 0%
Q3 12:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+1
99.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Benny LeMay for 7 yds to the Charl 12 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-6 Yards) to the Charl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15TD3 plays · 45 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
99.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Luke Price for 19 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-11
99.8%
Chase Brice sacked by Alex Highsmith for a loss of 11 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 21
OPP 37
+37
99.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Joe Ngata for 37 yds for a TD, (Steven Sawicki KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16FUMBLE9 plays · 15 yds · 3:230% → 0%
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
99.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 10 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Micaleous Elder for 6 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q3 6:12
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Connor Bowler punt for 48 yds , Will Swinney returns for no gain to the Clem 12 Will Swinney fumbled, recovered by Charl Aaron McAllisterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17TD3 plays · 12 yds · 1:070% → 0%
CLEMDrive 18INT9 plays · 34 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
CLTDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:200% → 0%
CLEMDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 1:04100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+20
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Swinney for 20 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 4:260% → 0%
CLEMDrive 22TD4 plays · 65 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Carter Groomes for 8 yds to the Clem 43Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+7
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
99.9%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Drew Swinney for 11 yds to the CLEMSON 39 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 3:31
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+13
100.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 48 yds , Will Brown returns for 13 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 24END OF GAME9 plays · 42 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
100.0%
Taisun Phommachanh pass complete to Will Brown for 8 yds to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:56
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Cornell Powell for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.4
TD · Q2 8:31
Travis Etienne run for 2 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+0.2
FG · Q2 4:27
Jonathan Cruz 24 yd FG GOOD
-0.1