2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:24 · Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jimmie Robinson at the BthCk 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:54: DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — BCU win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:25: DeeJay Dallas run for 51 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:57: DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:03: Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 22 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
- TD · Q3 10:35: Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 32 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BCU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 15:00MIA 4th & 7 at MIA 48, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q1 14:01BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 10:54BCU 4th & 23 at BCU 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 3:27MIA 4th & 6 at BCU 13, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snapGo for it98.0%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call98.0%85% to makePunt97.6%−0.4average punt
- Q1 3:27BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it2.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q2 14:24MIA 4th & 12 at BCU 43, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%−<0.124% to convertField goal97.4%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call97.5%average punt
- Q2 14:02BCU 4th & 7 at BCU 10, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q2 11:25BCU 4th & 10 at BCU 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.2%average punt
- Q2 10:29MIA 4th & 1 at BCU 4, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.9%65% to convertField goal97.6%−0.393% to makePunt96.9%−1.0average punt
- Q2 5:53BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 11, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.240% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.7%average punt
- Q2 4:28MIA 4th & 1 at BCU 36, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.2%71% to convertField goal96.8%−0.442% to makePunt96.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 15:00BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 17, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 10:35BCU 4th & 16 at BCU 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:36BCU 4th & 18 at BCU 17, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 14:55BCU 4th & 8 at BCU 45, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:21BCU 4th & 4 at BCU 19, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
- Q1 10:54MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:25MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:57MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:03MIA Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:35MIA Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:36MIA Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:55MIA Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:21MIA Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:42MIA Touchdown, up 62 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMIADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
BCUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.1%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Isaac Washington for 1 yd to the BthCk 2Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
99.1%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Tyrese Spain for 4 yds to the BthCk 6Similar
Q1 14:01
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+27
99.1%
Bryce Coward punt for 37 yds, downed at the BthCk 43 BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Defensive holding (Rashon McNeil) to the BthCk 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD4 plays · 33 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the BthCk 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 4PUNT12 plays · 18 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+17
99.0%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jimmie Robinson for 17 yds to the BthCk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+8
99.0%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Tyrese Spain for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 16
50
+10
99.0%
Akevious Williams pass complete to LaDerrien Wilson for 10 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-7
99.0%
Akevious Williams sacked by Gurvan Hall Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 13
OPP 47
-5
99.0%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Vernon Walker III) to the BthCk 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5MISSED FG6 plays · 58 yds · 3:0999% → 98%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+54
98.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 54 yds to the BthCk 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+3
98.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 3 yds to the BthCk 13Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 11
OPP 18
+5
98.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 5 yds to the BthCk 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 3:27
3RD & 3
OWN 27
-2
98.4%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Taron Mallard for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 1:4498% → 98%
Q1 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+12
98.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 12 yds to the BthCk 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
98.1%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by Devin JamesSimilar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
98.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jimmie Robinson at the BthCk 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MIADrive 9TD2 plays · 57 yds · 0:4498% → 99%
BCUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 11:25
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Bryce Coward punt for 38 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for no gain to the MiaFl 25 MIAMI FL Penalty, illegal block (Cam'Ron Harris) to the MiaFl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 67 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+29
98.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 29 yds to the BthCk 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
98.5%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Navaughn Donaldson) to the BthCk 49Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+13
98.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 13 yds to the BthCk 36Similar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 3 yds to the BthCk 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MIADrive 13TD7 plays · 45 yds · 3:3198% → 99%
BCUDrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · 18 yds · 0:221% → 1%
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
98.8%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 6 yds Jonathon Thomas fumbled, forced by Trajan Bandy, recovered by MiaFl Robert KnowlesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD3 plays · 43 yds · 0:1399% → 100%
MIADrive 16Uncategorized2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
99.7%
Baxa, B. kickoff 65 yards to the BCU0, ROBINSON,Jimmie return to the BCU36 (Harris, C.), PENALTY BCU holding off-setting, PENALTY UM personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 17
0
99.6%
Bryce Coward punt for 38 yds , Jeff Thomas returns for no gain to the MiaFl 17 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (Cam'Ron Harris) to the MiaFl 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18TD5 plays · 65 yds · 2:33100% → 100%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
99.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 14 yds to the BthCk 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd to the BthCk 32Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+32
99.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 32 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 19PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
99.8%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BthCk 11Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 13
OWN 13
-3
99.8%
Akevious Williams sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 3 yards to the BthCk 10Similar
Q3 10:35
4TH & 16
OWN 10
+4
99.8%
Bryce Coward punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BthCk 40 , K.J. Osborn returns for 4 yds to the BthCk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD7 plays · 40 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q3 8:47
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+9
99.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 9 yds to the BthCk 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
99.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 7 yds to the BthCk 18Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+12
99.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brian Hightower for 12 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Larry Hodges for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 21PUNT7 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:36
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-10
99.9%
WASHINGTON,I. rush for 35 yards to the UM38, out-of-bounds (Hall, G.), PENALTY BCU holding (MALLARD,Taron) 10 yards to the BCU17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Akevious Williams pass incomplete to Tyrese Spain, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD8 plays · 54 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+14
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brian Hightower for 14 yds to the BthCk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 4 yds to the BthCk 36Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brian Hightower, broken up by Untareo JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+14
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 14 yds to the BthCk 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:55
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+42
100.0%
Bryce Coward punt for 27 yds, downed at the MIAMI 28 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24TD10 plays · 57 yds · 4:53100% → 100%
BCUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
100.0%
Devin Black pass complete to Tyrese Spain for 5 yds to the BthCk 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26TD6 plays · 46 yds · 3:57100% → 100%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+23
100.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeremiah Payton for 23 yds to the BthCk 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 27END OF GAME8 plays · 54 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:57
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+1.2
TD · Q2 11:25
DeeJay Dallas run for 51 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 0:03
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 22 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+0.6