Try the model
FSU

Florida State 24 at Virginia 31

UVA
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Tommy Martin punt for 59 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 44Pregame prior+14.0Home team on offense+0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:38: James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +10.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:15: Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK) — UVA win probability +25.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:42: James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +27.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:02: Wayne Taulapapa 1 Yd Run (Brian Delaney PAT failed) — UVA win probability +23.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Perkins Run For Two-point Conversion) — UVA win probability +36.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:25FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:55UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.4
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:45UVA 4th & 6 at FSU 32, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00FSU 4th & 1 at FSU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.8%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:28UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00FSU 4th & 11 at UVA 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:23UVA 4th & 19 at UVA 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−4.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:48FSU 4th & 8 at UVA 36, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:48UVA 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    41.9%−3.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    40.0%−5.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:02FSU 4th & 6 at FSU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−2.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4FSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 12:21FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:58UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:38FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:15UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:42FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:02UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:34UVA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    81.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
68.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 8 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 14 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+1
68.7%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+13
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 13 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
68.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+10
68.7%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
68.7%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Asante Samuel Jr. return for no gain to the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+28
68.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 28 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
67.7%
Keyshawn Helton run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+5
67.6%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
67.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 15
OWN 46
0
67.9%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 15
OWN 46
0
67.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 15
OWN 46
0
68.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 15
OWN 46
0
68.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
67.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+1
67.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 1 yd to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 8:55
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
67.5%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:55
4TH & 8
OWN 20
+58
67.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the VIRGINIA 32 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
67.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
67.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+18
67.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 18 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
66.9%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-5
67.2%
James Blackman sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 34 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+3
67.7%
James Blackman run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 13
OWN 37
0
67.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 43 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:3567% → 68%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
67.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
67.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
66.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 14 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 8 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+20
68.1%
Bryce Perkins run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jaiden Lars-Woodbey) to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
68.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-2
68.2%
Bryce Perkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+7
67.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 0:45
4TH & 6
OPP 32
+49
67.8%
Brian Delaney 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:4532% → 32%
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
67.9%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
68.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q1 0:45
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+15
68.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 15 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
68.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 59 yds , Billy Kemp IV returns for no gain to the Virg 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
67.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
67.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
66.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 7
OWN 10
-5
66.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, (-5 Yards) to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 12
OWN 5
0
66.3%
Nash Griffin punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 0:4834% → 40%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
66.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 43 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Joey Blount) to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+18
65.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 18 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 10 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2363% → 70%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.8%
Bryce Perkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
62.7%
Kelly, T rush for no gain to the VA25 (Durden,C), PENALTY FS offside (Cooper,R) 5 yards to the VA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+28
63.1%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 28 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
64.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 6 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 12:21
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+16
64.8%
Bryce Perkins run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
65.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 13 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
65.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive offside (4 Yards) to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.2%
Cam Akers run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
66.1%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
66.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
66.3%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 43
0
66.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn Helton, broken up by Nick GrantSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
67.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
67.8%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 6 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
68.0%
Bryce Perkins run for 10 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
68.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 13 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
69.6%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
69.7%
Bryce Perkins run for no gain to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 8
OPP 49
-5
68.8%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Jaiden Lars-Woodbey and Cory Durden for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 7:28
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
66.6%
Nash Griffin punt for 41 yds, downed at the FlaSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
9 plays · 87 yds · 2:4533% → 48%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
67.3%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+10
67.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 10 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+11
68.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 11 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+36
66.8%
Khalan Laborn run for 36 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
63.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 28 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.5%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Virg 5Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
63.2%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:2958% → 58%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.0%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Tanner CowleySimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
57.9%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
57.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
57.6%
Bryce Perkins pass intercepted Levonta Taylor return for no gain to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-4
54.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
54.6%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
52.8%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
52.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
52.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 7 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
52.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Noah TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-1
52.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
53.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete, broken up by Nick GrantSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
55.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 2:0354% → 50%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
54.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+5
54.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+2
53.4%
Bryce Perkins run for 2 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
54.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 15
OWN 16
-8
52.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding (-8 Yards) to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 23
OWN 8
-5
51.8%
Bryce Perkins sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 28
OWN 3
+2
51.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Tanner Cowley for 2 yds to the Virg 5Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 26
OWN 5
+7
50.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 7 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 19
OWN 12
0
50.4%
Nash Griffin punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Keyshawn Helton at the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:5953% → 64%
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
47.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
47.1%
Cam Akers run for 17 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
46.3%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 7:47
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
44.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-1
46.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+53
36.3%
Ricky Aguayo 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:3341% → 66%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 15 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
43.6%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+13
44.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 13 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
45.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
45.7%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Lamont Atkins for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+2
45.3%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+6
43.2%
Bryce Perkins run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
47.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 7 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+4
47.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 4 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
40.8%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 4 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
66.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3345% → 78%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
55.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Khalan Laborn for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
55.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
57.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
51.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 30 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
47.7%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+3
47.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
49.7%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
22.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:4030% → 59%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+12
33.2%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Terrell Jana for 12 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
34.3%
Bryce Perkins run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+10
35.1%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Reed, J, PENALTY FS holding (Jackson,D) 10 yards to the FS41, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
36.3%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 3
OPP 34
0
38.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Terrell ChatmanSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+3
33.1%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
35.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 11 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
35.4%
PK Kier run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Robert Cooper) to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
35.4%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 9 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, face mask (1 yards) (Hamsah Nasirildeen) to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.5%
Wayne Taulapapa 1 Yd Run (Brian Delaney PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0059% → 55%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
40.0%
James Blackman run for no gain to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tre' McKittySimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
45.0%
Tommy Martin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:2049% → 95%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
49.3%
Joe Reed run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
50
0
55.2%
Bryce Perkins pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 10
50
+35
54.5%
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 35 yds to the FlaSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
58.2%
Perkins, B pass incomplete to Taulapapa, W, PENALTY FS personal foul (Green,R) 8 yards to the FS7, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
58.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.5%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Perkins Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23END OF GAME
19 plays · 71 yds · 2:1511% → 16%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.1%
James Blackman run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Charles SnowdenSimilar
Q4 2:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.9%
James Blackman sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+15
90.5%
Blackman,J pass incomplete to Wilson,O (Grant, N), PENALTY VA pass interference (Grant, N) 15 yards to the FS35, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
87.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
50
0
86.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 10
50
+4
87.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+1
88.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 1 yd to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+15
89.9%
Blackman,J pass incomplete to McKitty,T, dropped pass, PENALTY VA personal foul (Mack, J) 15 yards to the VA30, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
85.1%
Blackman,J pass incomplete to Terry,T, PENALTY VA pass interference (Hall, B) 14 yards to the VA16, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-4
83.9%
James Blackman sacked by Zane Zandier for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 14
OPP 20
0
87.5%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 14
OPP 20
+16
90.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 16 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.3%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the Virg 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Perkins Run For Two-point Conversion)
+36.3
TD · Q4 11:42
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-27.4
TD · Q4 14:15
Bryce Perkins pass complete to Joe Reed for 12 yds for a TD, (Brian Delaney KICK)
+25.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com