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DUKE

Duke 41 at Middle Tennessee 18

MTSU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the MIDDLETENN 33 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Duke 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Home team on offense−4.3Score differential−2.0Pregame prior−12.5Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:18: Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 11:44: AJ Reed 49 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +4.6 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:30: Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +9.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:17: Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 25 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:58: Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 18 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:09MTSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    36.8%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:09DUKE 4th & 1 at MTSU 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%−0.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:05DUKE 4th & 2 at MTSU 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    61.9%−0.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:44DUKE 4th & 5 at MTSU 31, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:44MTSU 4th & 8 at DUKE 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.8%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−0.3
    38% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:51DUKE 4th & 7 at MTSU 8, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:51MTSU 4th & 3 at DUKE 40, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:45MTSU 4th & 2 at DUKE 46, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:35DUKE 4th & 6 at MTSU 48, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:35MTSU 4th & 12 at DUKE 19, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:08DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 38, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:05DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:18DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:30DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:17DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:41MTSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:58DUKE Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:35MTSU Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 51 yds · 6:5134% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.8%
Zack Dobson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
33.8%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Dalton Frantz for 13 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
33.8%
Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+12
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+8
33.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 8 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-15
33.8%
O'HARA, Asher pass complete to PIERCE, Jarrin for 7 yards to the DU19 (Singleton,D.), PENALTY MT pass interference (FRANTZ, Dalton) 15 yards to the DU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 25
OPP 41
-4
33.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 29
OPP 45
+1
33.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 28
OPP 44
+20
33.8%
Asher O'Hara run for 20 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
37.5%
Crews Holt 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 6:0463% → 65%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
37.3%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+1
37.0%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+8
37.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 8 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
36.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 12 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
36.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+6
36.5%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
36.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 9 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 1
OPP 18
0
36.5%
Quentin Harris run for no gain to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
36.7%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:09
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+4
37.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
36.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
36.5%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+3
36.8%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.2%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 47 yds · 1:4764% → 69%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
35.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+5
35.6%
Deon Jackson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
35.6%
Deon Jackson run for no gain to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+27
36.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 27 yds to the MTnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
30.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1832% → 31%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
31.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
31.8%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
31.6%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Zack DobsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+30
31.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the MIDDLETENN 33 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Duke 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:3669% → 74%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
30.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 4 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+22
30.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
30.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+3
30.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-4
30.9%
Mataeo Durant run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+49
26.3%
AJ Reed 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0027% → 28%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
27.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
27.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to DJ England-Chisolm, broken up by Josh BlackwellSimilar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
27.3%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+17
28.2%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 17 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
28.5%
Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
28.6%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-2
28.4%
Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
28.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:1576% → 87%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
24.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 7 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-1
23.8%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+18
24.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 18 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
23.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Noah GraySimilar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
23.8%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+8
23.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
22.3%
Quentin Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
22.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 6 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+7
22.5%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
13.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
16.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
16.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
16.5%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
16.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:5287% → 93%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
13.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+2
13.5%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+14
13.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 14 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
12.8%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+2
12.9%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 47 Deon Jackson fumbled, forced by Reed Blankenship, recovered by Duke Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+9
13.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 9 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
11.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
10.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
6.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 25 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:165% → 4%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
5.0%
Brad Anderson run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
3.7%
Asher O'Hara run for 20 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:0992% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
8.3%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+65
8.4%
Quentin Harris run for 65 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
7.6%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+2
7.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 2 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 8
0
8.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
6.2%
AJ Reed 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:108% → 13%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
8.0%
Asher O'Hara run for 28 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
8.8%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
8.5%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 1
OPP 38
-2
9.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+8
8.7%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
9.3%
Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
12.7%
CJ Windham 26 Yd pass from Asher O'Hara (Asher O'Hara Pass to Jimmy Marshall for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 6:4393% → 98%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
7.3%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
7.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
7.5%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
7.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 9 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+4
7.2%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
7.0%
Deon Jackson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 1
50
+3
6.8%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
6.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
6.8%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
6.8%
Quentin Harris run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
6.7%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+18
2.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 18 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:232% → 3%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
2.1%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
2.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Brandon HillSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
2.0%
O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete to WINDHAM, CJ, PENALTY DU offside (Hornbuckle,T.) 5 yards to the MT36, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
2.2%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Edgar Cerenord for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+6
2.1%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
2.1%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (Chris Rumph II) to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
2.3%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Chris Rumph II for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
2.1%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+9
2.1%
Asher O'Hara run for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+13
1.0%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 13 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.7%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-4
0.7%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 37
+23
0.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 23 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
0.8%
Asher O'Hara run for no gain to the Duke 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
0.7%
Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
2.9%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 14 yds for a TD, (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
2.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+15
2.1%
Quentin Harris run for 15 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
2.0%
Deon Jackson run for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
2.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
1.9%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
1.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 12:35
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+1
1.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 12:35
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
2.1%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, downed at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 53 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+28
1.6%
Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 28 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
1.7%
Terelle West run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+23
1.8%
Terelle West run for 23 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
2.0%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+9
2.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 9 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
2.0%
Jayy McDonald run for 4 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-3
2.0%
Terelle West run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 9
OPP 16
-3
1.9%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Dylan Singleton for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 7:35
4TH & 12
OPP 19
-16
1.8%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Brandon Hill for a loss of 16 yards to the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 3:3399% → 100%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.7%
Deon Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
0.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
0.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-5
0.7%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-6
0.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
0.3%
Austin Parker punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:30
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q1 0:18
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-5.7
FG · Q2 11:44
AJ Reed 49 yd FG GOOD
-4.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com