View as
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:24 · B.T. Potter 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 4:31: B.T. Potter 40 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +1.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q2 2:00: Andre Szmyt 23 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +1.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:42: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 87 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +4.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:24: B.T. Potter 37 yd FG GOOD — CLEM win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:11: Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 11 of 13CLEM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 13:49CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.6% before the snapGo for it94.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.7%average punt
- Q1 13:13SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q1 8:47SYR 4th & 19 at SYR 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q1 2:52SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 43, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snapGo for it6.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.7%average punt
- Q1 0:36CLEM 4th & 4 at CLEM 24, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.2%average punt
- Q2 12:24SYR 4th & 3 at CLEM 11, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.7%50% to convertField goalTheir call7.5%−0.187% to makePunt6.3%−1.4average punt
- Q2 11:23CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 42, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.5%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.7%average punt
- Q2 9:25SYR 4th & 18 at SYR 17, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q2 7:27CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 39, up 11Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snapGo for it91.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 6:20SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 28, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.5%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 4:31CLEM 4th & 10 at SYR 23, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.2% before the snapGo for it89.8%−0.228% to convertField goalTheir call90.1%70% to makePunt88.8%−1.3average punt
- Q2 2:00SYR 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snapGo for it8.3%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call8.3%92% to makePunt6.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 1:37CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 32, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.5%average punt
- Q3 12:08SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.2% before the snapGo for it9.7%−1.020% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.7%average punt
- Q3 8:08SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 29, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it6.0%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q3 2:24CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 20, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.0%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call96.2%75% to makePunt93.0%−3.2average punt
- Q3 1:00SYR 4th & 2 at SYR 33, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt2.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:44CLEM 4th & 15 at SYR 15, up 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.7%−0.415% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%83% to makePunt96.9%−1.2average punt
- Q4 13:03SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q4 8:38SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 22, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 5:54CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 47, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 1:30SYR 4th & 12 at CLEM 40, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−<0.124% to convertField goal0.1%34% to makePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:29CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.8%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:34CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:42CLEM Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:11CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:48CLEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0097% → 97%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
3.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 2 yds to the Clem 27Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
3.4%
Etienne, Travis rush for no gain to the CLEMSON27, PENALTY SYRACUSE offside (Ruff, Kenneth) 5 yards to the CLEMSON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
3.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass incomplete to J.C. Chalk, broken up by Alton RobinsonSimilar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
3.5%
Will Spiers punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:324% → 4%
CLEMDrive 3TD9 plays · 79 yds · 2:4196% → 96%
Q1 12:34
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
3.7%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Melifonwu, Ifeatu) 15 yards to the CLEMSON41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+16
3.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 16 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
3.8%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 7 yds to the Syrac 41Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+16
3.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 16 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
3.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 16 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -9 yds · 1:384% → 4%
Q1 9:15
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-8
4.2%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Isaiah Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 77 yds · 3:1196% → 96%
Q1 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+50
4.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 35 yds to the SYRACUSE 38 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 2:384% → 5%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
4.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 9 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
4.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 12 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
4.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by James Skalski for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 35Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+8
4.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 8 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 2:1295% → 95%
Q1 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+5
4.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 5 yds to the Clem 9Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+9
4.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 9 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
4.9%
Will Spiers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8FG13 plays · 48 yds · 3:065% → 6%
Q1 0:05
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
5.3%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Harris, Taj, PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Mascoll, Justin) 5 yards to the CLEMSON48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
5.3%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Jackson, Trishton, PENALTY SYRACUSE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the SYRACUSE47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+24
5.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 24 yds to the Clem 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:4894% → 94%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
5.9%
Lawrence, Trevor pass incomplete to Ross, Justyn, PENALTY SYRACUSE pass interference (Cordy, Antwan) 15 yards to the CLEMSON40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
6.1%
Will Spiers punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 1:406% → 6%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-7
6.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Tanner Muse and Tyler Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 19Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-8
6.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by James Skalski and K.J. Henry for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 11Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
+6
6.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 6 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
6.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Derion Kendrick at the Clem 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5894% → 93%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+12
6.6%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 12 yds to the Clem 37Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+2
6.4%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 2 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
6.7%
Will Spiers punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:557% → 7%
CLEMDrive 13FG7 plays · 56 yds · 1:2993% → 94%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
7.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 13 yds to the Clem 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+58
7.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Tee Higgins for 58 yds to the Syrac 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
6.7%
CLEMSON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tee Higgins) to the Syrac 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14FG10 plays · 70 yds · 2:256% → 8%
Q2 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+50
5.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 50 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
6.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Moe Neal for 17 yds to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
6.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:1792% → 92%
SYRDrive 16END OF HALF6 plays · -1 yds · 0:498% → 8%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
7.7%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Tyler Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 20Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
7.9%
DeVito, Tommy pass complete to Adams, Abdul for 16 yards to the SYRACUSE36, PENALTY SYRACUSE ineligible downfield on pass (Johnson, Nykeim) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
8.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for 8 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:478% → 8%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
8.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Trishton Jackson for 4 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
8.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Riley for 5 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-10
9.2%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Chad Smith for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 32Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 13
OWN 32
+3
8.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 65 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for 3 yds to the Clem 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18INT3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5591% → 91%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+20
9.1%
Trevor Lawrence pass intercepted Christopher Fredrick return for 20 yds to the Clem 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
10.9%
Tommy DeVito pass intercepted Mario Goodrich return for no gain to the Clem 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD3 plays · 96 yds · 1:1791% → 96%
SYRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:325% → 5%
Q3 8:59
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
4.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Alexander) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
4.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Abdul Adams for 6 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
4.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 52 yds , Amari Rodgers returns for no gain to the Clem 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22INT2 plays · 19 yds · 0:0596% → 96%
SYRDrive 23DOWNS3 plays · 1 yds · 1:006% → 6%
CLEMDrive 24FG7 plays · 78 yds · 3:0696% → 98%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+48
3.7%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Justyn Ross for 48 yds to the Syrac 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
3.3%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 2 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 18
OPP 33
+7
2.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 7 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+6
2.9%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Travis Etienne for 6 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25DOWNS5 plays · 0 yds · 1:202% → 2%
Q3 1:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-8
2.2%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Isaiah Simmons for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 26MISSED FG5 plays · 10 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:222% → 2%
CLEMDrive 28TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:4999% → 100%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
1.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to T.J. Chase for 11 yds to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
1.1%
Lyn-J Dixon run for 3 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Evan Foster) to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
1.0%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Davis Allen for 10 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
0.2%
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 7 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:220% → 0%
CLEMDrive 30PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q4 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-4
0.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Darien Rencher for a loss of 4 yards to the Clem 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 31DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 4:200% → 0%
Q4 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
0.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 2 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
0.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Aaron Hackett for 12 yds to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
0.1%
DeVito, Tommy pass incomplete to Jackson, Trishton, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Williams, LeAnthony) 15 yards to the CLEMSON38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 32TD2 plays · 60 yds · 0:15100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:42
Trevor Lawrence pass complete to Amari Rodgers for 87 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
-4.6
FG · Q2 2:00
Andre Szmyt 23 yd FG GOOD
+1.3
FG · Q3 2:24
B.T. Potter 37 yd FG GOOD
-1.3