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UNC

North Carolina 18 at Wake Forest 24

WAKE
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:08 · Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCaro 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Pregame prior+7.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:02: Jamie Newman 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +4.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:54: Jamie Newman 6 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +6.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:04: Sage Surratt 51 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick) — WAKE win probability +11.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:41: Noah Ruggles 49 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +3.2 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:20: Kenneth Walker III run for 20 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST down — WAKE win probability +0.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UNC made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 13:15UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49WAKE 4th & 14 at UNC 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    59.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:58WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:47UNC 4th & 18 at UNC 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.8
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:08WAKE 4th & 8 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:38UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:42UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:17UNC 4th & 14 at UNC 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:56WAKE 4th & 1 at UNC 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−2.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:12UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:24WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 33, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:23UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 40, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:49WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 30, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:10UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−0.9
    average punt
  16. Q3 9:22UNC 4th & 15 at UNC 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 7:06WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 44, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:50UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:00UNC 4th & 2 at WAKE 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.6
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−3.8
    average punt
  20. Q3 0:41UNC 4th & 22 at WAKE 32, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:23WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 48, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:45WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 42, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:09WAKE 4th & 7 at UNC 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:01UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 45, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:02WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:54WAKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:04WAKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:4041% → 41%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
58.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
58.9%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
58.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 1 yd to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
59.0%
Ben Kiernan punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:1459% → 59%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
59.1%
Jamie Newman run for 6 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
59.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 8 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
59.3%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
59.3%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+2
59.3%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
59.6%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+2
59.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+4
59.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 4 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 14
OPP 38
0
59.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 14
OPP 38
0
58.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5841% → 41%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
58.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-2
58.5%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
58.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+10
59.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 56 yds , Sage Surratt returns for 10 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:3559% → 58%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
58.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 12
OWN 25
0
58.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 12
OWN 25
0
58.5%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 12
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:0341% → 41%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
58.7%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-1
58.5%
Sam Howell sacked by Shamar McCollum for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 9
OWN 30
-5
59.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 14
OWN 25
-4
59.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 5:47
4TH & 18
OWN 21
-6
59.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds , Sage Surratt returns for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 32 Sage Surratt fumbled, recovered by WFrstSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2759% → 59%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
59.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+13
59.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 13 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.8%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
59.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 8
50
0
59.5%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 8
50
0
58.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, downed at the NCaro 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2741% → 41%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
58.8%
Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+17
58.9%
Javonte Williams run for 17 yds to the NCaro 20 Javonte Williams fumbled, recovered by WFrst Luke MastersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8TD
2 plays · 20 yds · 0:2161% → 65%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
60.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
64.6%
Jamie Newman 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:0237% → 36%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-3
63.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 13
OWN 21
+1
63.3%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 12
OWN 22
0
63.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q1 1:38
4TH & 12
OWN 22
0
64.3%
Ben Kiernan punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:3664% → 72%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+41
63.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 41 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
65.1%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+21
65.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 21 yds to the NCaro 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
65.5%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
71.6%
Jamie Newman 6 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5131% → 30%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.9%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+2
69.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 13:49
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
69.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
70.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 1:3072% → 83%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
71.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the WFrst 21Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+14
71.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 14 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
71.1%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
71.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 12 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
82.8%
Sage Surratt 51 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:2920% → 16%
Q2 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
80.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+8
80.1%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
80.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
80.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau CorralesSimilar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 10
OWN 47
-4
82.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 74 yds · 4:0886% → 88%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
86.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+5
86.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
86.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-3
86.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jaquarii Roberson for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+28
86.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 28 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
87.5%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
88.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+5
87.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+11
87.7%
Jamie Newman run for 11 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
88.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
88.4%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Jaquarii RobersonSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
88.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
88.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:4414% → 13%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-3
85.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-3 Yards) to the NCaro 3Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 13
OWN 3
+22
85.8%
Jace Ruder run for 22 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.5%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Javonte Williams for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
86.8%
Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, downed at the WFrst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3590% → 90%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
90.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
90.5%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the WFrst 33Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+9
90.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 40 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 9 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5312% → 11%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
87.8%
Michael Carter run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-7
87.3%
Jace Ruder sacked by Luke Masterson for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+6
89.2%
Jace Ruder run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
88.7%
Ben Kiernan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:4392% → 92%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
91.8%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-1
92.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0192% → 92%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
92.0%
Jamie Newman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
92.2%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.6%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
91.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 4:199% → 6%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
Michael Carter run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
90.8%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
91.2%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+6
91.8%
Javonte Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
92.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Garrett Walston for 4 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-5
92.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-4
92.9%
Sam Howell sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
93.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 15
OWN 35
+43
93.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds , Sage Surratt returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1195% → 95%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
94.6%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
94.5%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+9
94.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 9 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
94.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Christian Beal-Smith for 5 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
95.0%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
95.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:105% → 5%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
94.6%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
94.8%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
95.0%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
95.1%
Ben Kiernan punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Sage Surratt at the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.6%
Jamie Newman pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 36 yds · 4:395% → 6%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
94.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-3
95.6%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-10
96.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+32
96.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 32 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
96.0%
Michael Carter run for 14 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
95.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+8
95.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Emery Simmons for 8 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 2
OPP 23
0
96.1%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+3
96.5%
Javonte Williams run for 3 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.4%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
96.6%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius GrovesSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-5
97.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 25Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 15
OPP 25
-7
97.1%
Sam Howell sacked by Justin Strnad for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 32Similar
Q3 0:41
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+49
94.0%
Noah Ruggles 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 25FG
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
95.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 20 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 2:2898% → 98%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
98.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 44Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+3
98.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 47
-5
98.4%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+6
98.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
98.4%
Dom Maggio punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 27TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:532% → 1%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
98.4%
Michael Carter run for no gain to the NCaro 31Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+55
98.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 55 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
98.3%
Sam Howell run for 1 yd to the WFrst 13Similar
Q4 10:07
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+2
98.4%
Dazz Newsome run for 2 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
98.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 11 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
98.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 3 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 7:52
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 29TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:331% → 1%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.9%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 12 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+50
98.9%
Michael Carter run for 50 yds to the WFrst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.0%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the WFrst 17Similar
Q4 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
99.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 17 yds for a TD, (Sam Howell pass to Garrett Walston for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30FG
17 plays · 61 yds · 4:5199% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.1%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
99.2%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.2%
Jamie Newman sacked by Tyrone Hopper for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+27
99.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 27 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.3%
Jamie Newman run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+1
99.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+4
99.4%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
99.5%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 14 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
99.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18Similar
Q4 2:01
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
99.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+1
99.7%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
99.8%
Nick Sciba 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:020% → 0%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.8%
Sam Howell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+3
99.8%
Sam Howell pass complete to Sam Howell for 3 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 0:01
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+13
99.8%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:04
Sage Surratt 51 Yd pass from Jamie Newman (Nick Sciba Kick)
+11.3
TD · Q2 14:54
Jamie Newman 6 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)
+6
TD · Q1 3:02
Jamie Newman 5 Yd Run (Nick Sciba Kick)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com