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MIA

Miami 25 at North Carolina 28

UNC
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1UNC 40.9%Noah Ruggles 37 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 3 · Q1 12:58
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:58 · Noah Ruggles 37 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior−9.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score differential+0.0Blowout margin−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +11.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q3 6:14: Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +12.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:58: Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED) — MIA win probability +10.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:38: Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MIA win probability +35.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:01: Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds for a TD, (M. Carter Run For Two-point Conversion) — UNC win probability +61.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:58UNC 4th & 5 at MIA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    38.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:52MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:10MIA 4th & 18 at UNC 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:04MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:01UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−1.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:46MIA 4th & 9 at UNC 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−7.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:46UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−3.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:55MIA 4th & 4 at UNC 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:55UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MIA 4th & 1 at UNC 19, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    46.9%−2.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−8.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:14UNC 4th & 12 at MIA 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−2.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−9.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:15UNC 4th & 3 at MIA 44, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−5.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−2.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%−5.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:46UNC 4th & 3 at MIA 31, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.1%−2.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:55UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 40, down 5
    Close callWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.8%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:05MIA 4th & 10 at UNC 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−10.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−16.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MIA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:23UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:25MIA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:58MIA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:38MIA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    74.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    75.3%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:01UNC Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    74.0%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    74.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:0240% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.9%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
39.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 7 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
39.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 39 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
39.9%
Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-1
39.9%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
39.9%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
40.9%
Noah Ruggles 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
40.9%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
40.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+2
40.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 2 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
41.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
42.6%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 62 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:1358% → 54%
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
42.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
42.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
42.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
42.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
42.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
41.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 10 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
41.8%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-8
41.8%
Jarren Williams sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:23
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
42.2%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:10
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+50
45.7%
Bubba Baxa 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:0646% → 54%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
45.5%
Javonte Williams run for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.1%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+13
46.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 13 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
46.2%
Sam Howell run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+15
46.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, targeting (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
46.3%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+12
46.2%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 12 yds to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+2
46.0%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
46.3%
Javonte Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 9Similar
Q1 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
53.8%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
51.6%
Mark Pope run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
51.7%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 1 yd to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
51.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
52.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5855% → 57%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
55.1%
Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-2
55.1%
Rontavius Groves run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+1
56.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 1:01
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
56.6%
Ben Kiernan punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8MISSED FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 6:3044% → 37%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
56.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+15
56.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 15 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
55.8%
Jarren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
56.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 11 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+14
55.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 14 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
55.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
55.0%
Jeff Thomas run for 5 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+5
55.6%
K.J. Osborn run for 5 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
55.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for no gain to the NCaro 8Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
55.0%
Jarren Williams sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 9 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jarren Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
55.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to DeeJay Dallas for no gain to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
63.1%
Bubba Baxa 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
65.8%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+10
65.8%
Williams, A rush right for loss of 1 yard to the NC24 (Quarterman, S.;Patchan, S.), PENALTY UM holding (Nnoruka, C.) 10 yards to the NC35, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
65.9%
Antonio Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 35Similar
Q2 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
65.8%
Sam Howell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:46
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-6
65.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Trajan Bandy for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Ben Kiernan punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:3934% → 34%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
66.0%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 3 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+16
65.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 16 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+20
64.8%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 20 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
63.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 8 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+10
63.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 10 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
63.6%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
63.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
64.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
65.7%
Bubba Baxa 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
67.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 20Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
67.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 9 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
67.2%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
66.3%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Ben Kiernan punt for 21 yds, downed at the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:1334% → 47%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+16
66.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 16 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
64.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 14 yds to the NCaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
64.4%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+13
64.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 13 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.4%
Jarren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 6 Jarren Williams fumbled, recovered by MiaFl DeeJay DallasSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
52.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 6 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0046% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
54.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
51.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
52.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 7 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+3
50.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
50.5%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Jeff Thomas, broken up by Trey MorrisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
51.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+20
51.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 20 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
49.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+8
49.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Michael Irvin II for 8 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+2
50.4%
DeeJay Dallas run for 2 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 19
0
51.7%
Jarren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 8:4655% → 70%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
54.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
54.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+16
53.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Carl Tucker for 16 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
55.2%
Sam Howell run for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 25 Sam Howell fumbled, recovered by NCaro Sam HowellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 25
+36
54.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 36 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
57.8%
Dyami Brown pass complete to Sam Howell for 18 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
58.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
58.4%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Corrales, B, PENALTY UM offside (Pinckney, M.) 5 yards to the UM16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
58.4%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-7
57.3%
Sam Howell sacked by Michael Pinckney for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 6:14
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
70.1%
Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1634% → 50%
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
65.9%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mark Pope for 8 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
65.1%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 6:14
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
63.4%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
63.3%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 38 yds to the NCaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
60.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 11 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
49.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4357% → 59%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
57.3%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
58.5%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 9 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
61.0%
Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
61.0%
Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-1
61.8%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
61.0%
Javonte Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
58.9%
Ben Kiernan punt for 25 yds, fair catch by Jeff Thomas at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0744% → 42%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+29
56.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 29 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
51.4%
Jarren Williams sacked by Aaron Crawford for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 44
+7
55.2%
Jarren Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 49
-7
51.6%
Jarren Williams sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
58.4%
Lou Hedley punt for 49 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for no gain to the NCaro 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19MISSED FG
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:5857% → 61%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
56.8%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales, broken up by Trajan BandySimilar
Q4 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+14
56.3%
Javonte Williams run for 14 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
58.3%
Javonte Williams run for 19 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
61.7%
Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 12 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
64.1%
Sam Howell pass incomplete to Rontavius Groves, broken up by Romeo FinleySimilar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
63.4%
Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
64.3%
Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+2
65.4%
Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
63.6%
Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+49
61.2%
Noah Ruggles 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:0844% → 88%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
55.6%
DeeJay Dallas run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 35Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+8
55.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
52.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 11 yds to the UNC 46 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (DJ Scaife Jr.) to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 9
OWN 44
0
52.1%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
53.2%
DeeJay Dallas run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+12
54.8%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 12 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+37
50.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 37 yds to the NCaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
48.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Will Mallory) to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 4:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
12.5%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3724% → 90%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
23.5%
Javonte Williams run for 22 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
28.0%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-7
29.2%
Sam Howell sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 13
OWN 44
-4
22.8%
Sam Howell sacked by Gregory Rousseau for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:55
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+20
18.1%
Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 20 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
24.4%
Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
26.7%
Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
26.7%
Howell, S pass incomplete to Corrales, B, dropped pass, PENALTY UM offside (Hill, T.) 5 yards to the UM19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+9
28.8%
Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
89.9%
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds for a TD, (M. Carter Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:5625% → 25%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
74.8%
Jarren Williams run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
69.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 8 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+17
64.2%
Jarren Williams pass complete to Mike Harley for 17 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
62.5%
Jarren Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
62.5%
Jarren Williams run for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
70.3%
Jarren Williams pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
74.9%
Bubba Baxa 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-3
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds for a TD, (M. Carter Run For Two-point Conversion)
+61.1
TD · Q4 4:38
Jarren Williams pass complete to Will Mallory for 11 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-35.7
FG · Q3 6:14
Noah Ruggles 40 yd FG GOOD
+12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com