2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadEKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreEKU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:01 · Daryl McCleskey Jr. run for 3 yds to the EKent 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:17: Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +1.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:43: Conor Blount pass incomplete to Keyion Dixon — EKU win probability +1.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: EKU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:36: Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 10:45: Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 9 — LOU win probability +1.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:58: Dez Fitzpatrick 5 Yd pass from Jawon Pass (Blanton Creque Kick) — LOU win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5EKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
- Q1 15:00EKU 4th & 17 at EKU 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.213% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 12:34EKU 4th & 15 at EKU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q1 10:47LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.4% before the snapGo for it90.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.4%average punt
- Q1 9:20EKU 4th & 11 at EKU 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.6%−0.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.7%average punt
- Q1 6:15LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 46, up 7Close callPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it89.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.7%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:20EKU 4th & 7 at EKU 9, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snapGo for it10.2%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.3%average punt
- Q2 15:00EKU 4th & 5 at LOU 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call9.6%41% to convertField goal9.6%−<0.166% to makePunt7.7%−1.8average punt
- Q2 9:12LOU 4th & 7 at EKU 40, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.2%37% to convertField goal90.8%−0.434% to makePunt90.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:07EKU 4th & 4 at LOU 42, down 14Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snapGo for it9.7%48% to convertField goal9.0%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call9.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:43LOU 4th & 5 at EKU 25, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snapGo for it91.2%−0.341% to convertField goalTheir call91.6%66% to makePunt89.5%−2.1average punt
- Q2 0:01EKU 4th & 5 at EKU 30, down 14Close callWent for it · 8.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.3%−0.241% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.5%average punt
- Q3 14:36EKU 4th & 4 at LOU 47, down 21Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it4.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.9%−0.2average punt
- Q3 3:58LOU 4th & 5 at EKU 5, up 21Close callWent for it · 97.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.0%−<0.133% to convertField goal97.0%92% to makePunt95.4%−1.6average punt
- Q3 3:58EKU 4th & 5 at midfield, down 28Close callPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:05EKU 4th & 14 at EKU 42, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 5:47EKU 4th & 2 at EKU 26, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:34LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:17LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:36LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:58LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:05LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:47LOU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEKUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
LOUDrive 2TD4 plays · 79 yds · 1:1091% → 92%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
91.4%
Pass, J. deep pass incomplete to Atwell, T., PENALTY EKU holding (BASCOM, Ben) 10 yards to the LOU31, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
91.4%
Hawkins, J. rush left for 6 yards to the LOU37, out-of-bounds, PENALTY LOU illegal formation 5 yards to the LOU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
50
+50
91.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 50 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
91.4%
Conor Blount pass complete to Alex Cabrera for 2 yds to the EKent 23Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-7
91.4%
Conor Blount sacked by G.G. Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the EKent 16Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 15
OWN 16
+3
91.5%
Phillip Richards punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 41 , Tutu Atwell returns for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 10:47
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+10
91.2%
Pass, J. deep pass incomplete to Atwell, T., PENALTY EKU holding (SUMPTER, Frank) 10 yards to the LOU48, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
91.1%
Mason King punt for 45 yds , James Smith Jr. returns for no gain to the EKent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+10
91.0%
Daryl McCleskey Jr. run for 10 yds to the EKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:20
4TH & 7
OWN 9
+33
90.4%
Phillip Richards punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EKent 15 , Tutu Atwell returns for 33 yds to the EKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8TD2 plays · 15 yds · 0:3090% → 92%
EKUDrive 9DOWNS13 plays · 39 yds · 2:179% → 9%
LOUDrive 10INT7 plays · 28 yds · 2:2792% → 91%
EKUDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
90.8%
Conor Blount pass complete to Adam Valiga for 14 yds to the EKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12MISSED FG10 plays · 51 yds · 2:5791% → 92%
EKUDrive 13DOWNS6 plays · 8 yds · 0:429% → 8%
Q2 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
90.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Boosie Whitlow for a loss of 12 yards to the EKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14TD3 plays · 71 yds · 0:2492% → 97%
EKUDrive 15PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 14:36
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+9
96.2%
Conor Blount pass complete to Alex Cabrera for 9 yds to the EKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
96.1%
BLOUNT, Conor sideline pass incomplete to CABRERA, Alex, PENALTY LOU offside defense (Peterson, T.) 5 yards to the LOU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 2
OPP 45
-2
96.0%
Conor Blount pass complete to Adam Valiga for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD13 plays · 93 yds · 6:4797% → 100%
Q3 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+8
97.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 8 yds to the Lvile 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 13
OWN 14
+16
97.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Keion Wakefield for 16 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+5
97.4%
EASTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, offside defense (Taquan Evans) to the Lvile 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 17PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
99.7%
Parker McKinney sacked by Rodjay Burns for a loss of 7 yards to the EKent 38Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+2
99.7%
Parker McKinney pass complete to Collin Sanchez for 2 yds to the EKent 40Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 5
50
0
99.7%
Dakota Allen punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD8 plays · 85 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
EKUDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
LOUDrive 20TD4 plays · 66 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
99.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 24 yds to the EKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EKUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:47
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Phillip Richards punt for 39 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for 1 yd to the Lvile 27 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal block (T.J. Holl) to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22END OF GAME6 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:36
Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+5
TD · Q3 3:58
Dez Fitzpatrick 5 Yd pass from Jawon Pass (Blanton Creque Kick)
+2.2
TD · Q1 2:17
Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+1.7