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ULM

UL Monroe 44 at Florida State 45

FSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadULM aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreULM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Caleb Evans run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks PAT MISSED)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:47: Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK) — ULM win probability +20.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 7:41: Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK) — ULM win probability +36.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:09: James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 44 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +34.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 1:30: Jacob Meeks 24 yd FG GOOD — ULM win probability +21.9 pts (now 53%) (top driver: ULM has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Caleb Evans run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks PAT MISSED) — ULM win probability +13.5 pts (now 34%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6ULM made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:43ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19ULM 4th & 7 at FSU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:10ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:13ULM 4th & 10 at ULM 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:07FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 32, up 21
    Close callPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:36ULM 4th & 1 at FSU 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:47FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 8, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.2
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:58ULM 4th & 2 at FSU 36, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00FSU 4th & 4 at ULM 19, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    90.3%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:40FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 41, up 17
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:07ULM 4th & 4 at ULM 7, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:18FSU 4th & 3 at FSU 48, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.1%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:30ULM 4th & 3 at FSU 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−14.4
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−27.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:05FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−4.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:18ULM 4th & 5 at ULM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−6.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ULM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 11:51FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:06FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:26FSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:43ULM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:55ULM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:59ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:22FSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:47ULM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:41ULM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:09FSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−1.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ULMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:127% → 7%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
92.7%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 30Similar
Q1 14:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+6
92.7%
Jared Porter punt for 46 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:1093% → 93%
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
92.6%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
92.5%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+3
92.4%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 3 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
92.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 13 yds to the LaMon 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
92.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 5 yds to the LaMon 42Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+10
92.3%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
92.3%
Cam Akers run for 16 yds to the LaMon 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
92.2%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 7 yds to the LaMon 9Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
92.5%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 2:218% → 8%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
92.3%
Josh Johnson run for 7 yds to the LaMon 27Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+8
92.2%
Josh Johnson run for 8 yds to the LaMon 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
92.1%
Josh Johnson run for 6 yds to the LaMon 41Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+10
92.0%
Evans, Caleb deep pass incomplete to Lamm, Tyler, PENALTY FS holding (Fagan,C) 10 yards to the FS49, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY, clock 10:14.Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.9%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
91.9%
Austin Vaughn run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-4
91.8%
Caleb Evans sacked by Cory Durden for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
92.0%
Jared Porter punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:2892% → 93%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
91.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
91.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Warren Thompson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
91.8%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.7%
James Blackman run for no gain to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
91.7%
Blackman,J deep pass intercepted by Hawley, Austin at the FS33, Hawley, Austin return to the FS28, PENALTY ULM offside defense (Shelby, Ty) 5 yards to the FS36, NO PLAY, clock 07:15.Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
91.8%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
91.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 1
50
+5
91.7%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the LaMon 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
D.J. Matthews run for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
91.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 13 yds to the LaMon 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
91.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 8 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
91.7%
Khalan Laborn run for 5 yds to the LaMon 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
91.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 19 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:278% → 8%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
92.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q1 3:09
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
92.4%
Caleb Evans run for 6 yds to the LaMon 25Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
92.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
92.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan HodohSimilar
Q1 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
92.2%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
92.3%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+26
92.3%
Jared Porter punt for 38 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 26 yds to the LaMon 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 2:1193% → 95%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
92.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 2 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q1 1:15
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
92.9%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 5 yards to the LaMon 43Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+16
92.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 16 yds to the LaMon 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
92.9%
Khalan Laborn run for 1 yd to the LaMon 26Similar
Q1 0:10
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+2
92.9%
James Blackman run for 2 yds to the LaMon 24Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+12
92.8%
Blackman,J middle left pass incomplete to Wilson,O (Straughter, Cor), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Straughter, Cor) 12 yards to the ULM12, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 14:56.Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
92.9%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaMon 17Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+11
92.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 11 yds to the LaMon 6Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
95.1%
James Blackman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:565% → 4%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
95.0%
Caleb Evans run for no gain to the LaMon 13Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+7
95.1%
Caleb Evans run for 7 yds to the LaMon 20Similar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+8
95.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Tyler Lamm for 8 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 3 yds to the LaMon 31Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+3
95.4%
Isaiah Phillips run for 3 yds to the LaMon 34Similar
Q2 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-6
95.5%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (-6 Yards) to the LaMon 28Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Caleb Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
95.6%
Jared Porter punt for 48 yds, downed at the FlaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:5196% → 96%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
95.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Warren ThompsonSimilar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-2
95.9%
James Blackman sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 10:07
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+10
95.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q2 10:07
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
95.8%
Tommy Martin punt for 41 yds, downed at the LaMon 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:434% → 5%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 6 yds to the LaMon 33Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+10
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 10 yds to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.7%
Evans, Caleb deep pass incomplete to Hodoh, Jonathan (Meyers,K), PENALTY FS pass interference (Meyers,K) 15 yards to the FS42, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY, clock 08:26.Similar
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+22
95.6%
Josh Johnson run for 22 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
95.1%
Evans, Caleb deep pass incomplete to Brown, Xavier, PENALTY FS pass interference (Samuels,S) 15 yards to the FS5, 1ST DOWN ULM, NO PLAY, clock 07:53.Similar
Q2 7:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.2%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.2%
Caleb Evans run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.4%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.4%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh PedersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:3697% → 96%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
96.6%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
96.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria Wilson, broken up by Rhoy WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:07
3RD & 6
OWN 6
-3
96.6%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+5
96.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 5 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q2 5:47
4TH & 4
OWN 8
+5
96.4%
Tommy Martin punt for 41 yds , Brandius Batiste returns for 5 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 11TD
5 plays · 44 yds · 1:194% → 9%
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.6%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+7
95.7%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Zach Jackson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
95.9%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brandius BatisteSimilar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
96.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Johnson for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
91.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 33 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
14 plays · 31 yds · 3:3693% → 94%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
50
0
93.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 10
50
+3
93.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 47Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+3
93.0%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 44Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+9
92.8%
Blackman,J crossing pass incomplete to Wilson,O (Newton, Josh), PENALTY ULM pass interference (Newton, Josh) 9 yards to the ULM35, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY, clock 02:14.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
93.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for a loss of 1 yard to the LaMon 36Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+11
93.4%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the LaMon 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
93.6%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 4
OPP 19
-5
93.1%
Blackman,J post pass complete to Terry,T for 19 yards to the ULM0, clock 00:58, PENALTY FS ineligible downfield on pass (Roberts,R) 5 yards to the ULM24, NO PLAY, clock 00:58.Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
93.1%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 8 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-3
92.8%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaMon 19Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
93.9%
Ricky Aguayo 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0294% → 93%
Q3 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
93.9%
Cam Akers run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
94.0%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
94.2%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+7
93.5%
James Blackman run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
93.3%
Tommy Martin punt for 58 yds, downed at the LaMon 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:466% → 5%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
94.4%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 2Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+5
94.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Brandius Batiste for 5 yds to the LaMon 7Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 4
OWN 7
0
94.7%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Brandius Batiste, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 4
OWN 7
0
94.7%
Jared Porter punt for 52 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:3595% → 94%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
94.7%
D.J. Matthews run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
94.7%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
94.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion Terry, broken up by Ivin White Jr. FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:18
4TH & 3
OWN 48
+20
94.2%
Tommy Martin punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brandius Batiste at the FLORIDAST 17 FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Akeem Dent) to the LaMon 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:596% → 6%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
94.0%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the LaMon 33Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
94.2%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 38Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+6
94.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 6 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
93.9%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 19 yds Markis McCray fumbled, forced by Hamsah Nasirildeen, recovered by FlaSt Jaiden Lars-WoodbeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17INT TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:2996% → 90%
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.6%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
95.6%
Khalan Laborn run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
50
+57
90.2%
James Blackman pass intercepted for a TD Corey Straughter return for 57 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3689% → 90%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.4%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
89.2%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 7:29
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+18
88.5%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 18 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
90.4%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.3%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q3 6:57
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+9
89.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds Keith Gavin fumbled, forced by Caleb Evans, recovered by LaMon Jordan Oliver , return for 9 yds to the FLORIDAST 42 FLORIDA ST Penalty, illegal shift (Jordan Oliver) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3913% → 27%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
87.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
87.2%
Josh Johnson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+5
86.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
86.1%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Markis McCray) to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+14
87.1%
Josh Johnson run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+1
86.2%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
86.1%
Austin Vaughn run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
73.1%
Caleb Evans run for 10 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:2178% → 91%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
78.0%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+11
77.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 11 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+4
78.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-8
77.9%
James Blackman sacked by Donald Louis Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+12
76.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+24
77.3%
Cam Akers run for 24 yds to the LaMon 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
80.1%
Akers,C rush left for 4 yards to the ULM33, out-of-bounds (Shelby, Ty), PENALTY ULM substitution infraction 5 yards to the ULM32, NO PLAY, clock 00:26.Similar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+9
80.8%
Cam Akers run for 9 yds to the LaMon 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
80.8%
Cam Akers run for 7 yds to the LaMon 16Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-5
80.6%
Blackman,J wide receiver screen right pass complete to Wilson,O for 16 yards to the ULM0, clock 14:52, PENALTY FS offside 5 yards to the ULM21, NO PLAY, clock 14:52.Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+4
82.9%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 4 yds to the LaMon 17Similar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+14
81.6%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the LaMon 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-4
82.7%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaMon 7Similar
Q4 13:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.0%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 7 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 21TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:1912% → 33%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
88.3%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
87.8%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 45Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
88.2%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 8 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
87.1%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 6 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+4
86.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
87.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 10 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
87.4%
Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+20
87.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 20 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.3%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22INT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:1878% → 76%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
78.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, false start (Baveon Johnson) to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 15
OWN 29
0
77.7%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+3
77.2%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 9:22
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+1
76.1%
James Blackman pass intercepted Chase Day return for 1 yd to the FlaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 23TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:0133% → 70%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+19
66.8%
Josh Johnson run for 19 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
65.8%
Caleb Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 13
OPP 17
+16
66.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Jonathan Hodoh for 16 yds to the FlaSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.2%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2045% → 81%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
45.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 18 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
47.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 9 yds to the LaMon 48Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-2
49.1%
Cam Akers run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 3
50
+6
46.5%
Cam Akers run for 6 yds to the LaMon 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
80.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 44 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 25FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 4:3928% → 53%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
72.4%
Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the LaMon 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, personal foul (Dontavious Jackson) to the LaMon 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.7%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the LaMon 43Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+3
69.7%
Austin Vaughn run for 3 yds to the LaMon 46Similar
Q4 4:35
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+17
69.0%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Xavier Brown for 17 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
65.4%
Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34 Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by Cory Durden, recovered by LaMon Caleb EvansSimilar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
62.0%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Xavier BrownSimilar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-5
65.3%
UL MONROE Penalty, false start (Brandon Jones) to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+15
68.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 15 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
63.8%
Austin Vaughn run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+5
63.5%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
65.6%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Zach JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
64.6%
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+6
68.6%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Markis McCray for 6 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
46.7%
Jacob Meeks 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:1958% → 53%
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
58.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-2
56.9%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
53.4%
Tommy Martin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Brandius Batiste at the LaMon 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3352% → 49%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
48.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
49.2%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds to the LaMon 35Similar
Q4 0:18
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
48.1%
Caleb Evans pass incomplete to Jonathan Hodoh, broken up by Stanford Samuels IIISimilar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
50.6%
Jared Porter punt for 44 yds, downed at the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:0055% → 56%
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
55.0%
Cam Akers run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
56.0%
Cam Akers run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 75%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the LaMon 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
64.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for no gain to the LaMon 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
62.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the LaMon 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
64.7%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the LaMon 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+6
64.7%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 6 yds to the LaMon 4Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
75.0%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULMDrive 30TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 34%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
80.4%
Caleb Evans pass complete to Josh Pederson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.3%
Josh Johnson run for no gain to the FlaSt 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.8%
Caleb Evans run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Meeks PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:41
Josh Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Meeks KICK)
-36.2
TD · Q4 6:09
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 44 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
+34.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com