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NCAT

North Carolina A&T 13 at Duke 45

DUKE
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:01 · Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 158Pregame prior+13.5Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+17.5Garbage-time factor+11.6Blowout margin+10.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:20: Jah-Maine Martin 66 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick) — NCAT win probability +2.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:10: Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:56: Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 39 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +4.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:34: Quentin Harris run for 6 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 24 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8NCAT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NCAT 4th & 5 at NCAT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14NCAT 4th & 8 at DUKE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55NCAT 4th & 6 at DUKE 45, down 4
    Close callPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.5%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:55DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 28, up 4
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:04NCAT 4th & 8 at NCAT 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.6%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:19NCAT 4th & 10 at NCAT 42, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:56NCAT 4th & 7 at NCAT 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:56DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 36, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:03NCAT 4th & 9 at NCAT 41, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:39DUKE 4th & 10 at NCAT 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    54% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00NCAT 4th & 14 at NCAT 38, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:01DUKE 4th & 2 at NCAT 27, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:19DUKE 4th & 1 at NCAT 1, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:13NCAT 4th & 1 at NCAT 27, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:13NCAT 4th & 5 at NCAT 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCAT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 5:59DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:20NCAT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:10DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56DUKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34DUKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:36DUKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:19DUKE Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCATDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
96.5%
Jeremiah Martin run for 2 yds to the NCAT 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+23
96.5%
Kylil Carter run for 23 yds to the NCAT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
96.5%
Jeremiah Martin run for 5 yds to the NCAT 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Kashon Baker run for no gain to the NCAT 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Korey Banks, broken up by Marquis WatersSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+51
96.5%
Michael Rivers punt for 42 yds, downed at the DUKE 18 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (9 Yards) to the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 12:20
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+5
96.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
96.1%
Deon Jackson run for 8 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 2
OWN 40
-10
96.1%
Harris,Q. rush for 8 yards to the DU48 (HOWARD,Kyin), PENALTY DU holding (Baker,Z.) 10 yards to the DU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
96.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+11
96.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 11 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 1
OWN 41
-1
96.1%
Deon Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
96.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 3FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:545% → 5%
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
95.5%
Jeremiah Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 12
OPP 42
+6
95.5%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Zachary Leslie for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+11
95.5%
Kylil Carter run for 11 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
95.5%
Jeremiah Martin run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
95.5%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete, broken up by Josh BlackwellSimilar
Q1 10:08
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
95.5%
Kylil Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+40
94.8%
Noel Ruiz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:0995% → 95%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
94.8%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+19
94.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 19 yds to the DUKE 48 for a 1ST down NC A&T Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
95.0%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Brittain Brown for 10 yds to the NCAT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
95.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 38 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+38
95.1%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Elijah Bell for 38 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
94.9%
Kylil Carter run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+2
94.9%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Jeremiah Martin for 2 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
94.9%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Elijah Bell, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
95.1%
Michael Rivers punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
94.6%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
94.6%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
94.5%
Quentin Harris run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+36
94.5%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds, downed at the DUKE 21 DUKE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the NCAT 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
94.1%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Korey Banks for 2 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Elijah Bell, broken up by Michael Carter IISimilar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
94.1%
Kylil Carter run for no gain to the NCAT 38Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
94.3%
Michael Rivers punt for 45 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for no gain to the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:3494% → 94%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
93.8%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
93.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
93.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
93.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
93.6%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the Duke 36 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+2
93.6%
Brittain Brown run for 2 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
93.8%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Derrek WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-4
93.7%
Quentin Harris run for 11 yds to the Duke 49 DUKE Penalty, personal foul (Scott Bracey) to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
93.6%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
93.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 39
+3
93.5%
Austin Parker punt for 37 yds , Korey Banks returns for 3 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 9TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:467% → 10%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
93.0%
Jeremiah Martin run for 7 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+66
90.5%
Jah-Maine Martin 66 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FUMBLE
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0091% → 92%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.0%
Brittain Brown run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
91.1%
Deon Jackson run for 7 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.1%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.1%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+8
90.9%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 8 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+5
91.3%
Harris,Q. rush for no gain to the DU44 (BRANCH,Michael;WILLIAMS,J.), PENALTY NCAT offside 5 yards to the DU49, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
50
0
91.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Jalon Calhoun, broken up by Antoine WilderSimilar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 10
50
+5
91.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the NCAT 45Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+1
91.7%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCAT 42 Deon Jackson fumbled, forced by Kyin Howard, recovered by NCAT Joseph StuckeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
88.6%
Kylil Carter run for 2 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
88.6%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Korey Banks for 4 yds to the NCAT 48Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-6
88.6%
Kylil Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCAT 42Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
89.5%
Michael Rivers punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 3:1388% → 92%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+12
88.0%
Quentin Harris run for 12 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
88.2%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+5
88.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
88.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
89.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Deon JacksonSimilar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+4
88.7%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCAT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+22
89.1%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 22 yds to the NCAT 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
89.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 5 yds to the NCAT 22Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+22
91.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
90.3%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Elijah Bell for 13 yds Elijah Bell fumbled, forced by Leonard Johnson, recovered by Duke Dylan SingletonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
2 plays · 39 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
94.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 39 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Kylil Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
94.0%
Jeremiah Martin run for 3 yds to the NCAT 28Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.1%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Elijah BellSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+26
94.2%
Michael Rivers punt for 43 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 26 yds to the NCAT 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:2394% → 96%
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
94.3%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCAT 43Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
94.3%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 10 yds to the NCAT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+9
94.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Scott Bracey for 9 yds to the NCAT 24Similar
Q2 1:57
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+12
94.4%
Deon Jackson run for 12 yds to the NCAT 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
94.4%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Noah Gray for 6 yds to the NCAT 6Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
96.1%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCAT 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
95.9%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
95.8%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+4
95.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Deon Jackson for 4 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.0%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-10
96.0%
Durant,M. rush for 5 yards to the DU46 (HARRELL,Devin;STUCKEY,Joseph), PENALTY DU holding (Birmingham,J.) 10 yards to the DU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+15
95.8%
Quentin Harris run for 15 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-15
95.8%
Harris,Q. pass complete to Young,A. for 4 yards to the 50 yardline (WILDER,Antoine), PENALTY DU pass interference (Young,A.) 15 yards to the DU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+5
95.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 15
OWN 36
0
95.4%
Austin Parker punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCAT 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
95.6%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Elijah Bell, broken up by Leonard JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
95.8%
Kylil Carter run for 1 yd to the NCAT 41Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
95.8%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon HillSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
96.0%
Michael Rivers punt blocked by Rocky Shelton II blocked by Rocky Shelton IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1397% → 98%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
97.4%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCAT 36Similar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+4
97.4%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCAT 32Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+1
97.4%
Deon Jackson run for 1 yd to the NCAT 31Similar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Derrek WilliamsSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+50
98.2%
AJ Reed 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 21FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:112% → 4%
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+26
98.1%
Kylil Carter run for 26 yds to the NCAT 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
98.0%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Korey Banks for 27 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
97.7%
CARTER,Kylil pass incomplete to LESLIE,Zachary, PENALTY DU holding (Johnson,L.) 10 yards to the DU16, 1ST DOWN NCAT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
97.8%
Kylil Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
97.8%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Elijah BellSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+8
98.0%
CARTER,Kylil pass incomplete, PENALTY DU roughing passer (Singleton,D.) 8 yards to the DU8, 1ST DOWN NCAT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 8
OPP 9
0
97.8%
Jeremiah Martin run for no gain to the Duke 9Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-5
97.8%
Kylil Carter sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 13
OPP 14
-5
98.0%
NC A&T Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 18
OPP 19
0
98.0%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Zachary LeslieSimilar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+36
96.4%
Noel Ruiz 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
13 plays · 85 yds · 4:4198% → 100%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.5%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+6
97.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 6 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
97.6%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott BraceySimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+9
97.5%
Quentin Harris run for 9 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
97.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+11
97.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 11 yds to the NCAT 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
97.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 11 yds to the NCAT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Scott Bracey, broken up by Amir McNeilSimilar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
97.7%
Deon Jackson run for 2 yds to the NCAT 36Similar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+12
97.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 12 yds to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
99.6%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 24 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:361% → 1%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.4%
Jeremiah Martin run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Kylil Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
99.5%
Kylil Carter pass complete to Zachary Leslie for 18 yds to the NCAT 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.3%
Kylil Carter pass incomplete to Zachary LeslieSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-1
99.3%
Kashon Baker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCAT 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-3
99.5%
Darius Graves run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCAT 38Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
99.5%
Michael Rivers punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24TD
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:44100% → 100%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 13 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Deon Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+21
99.7%
Deon Jackson run for 21 yds to the NCAT 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.7%
Quentin Harris run for 5 yds to the NCAT 30Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 5
OPP 30
0
99.7%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+3
99.7%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q4 11:01
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+3
99.8%
Quentin Harris run for 3 yds to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCAT 22Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+19
99.8%
Chris Katrenick pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 19 yds to the NCAT 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCAT 1Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the NCAT 1Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.7%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the NCAT 1Similar
Q4 8:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jeremiah Martin run for no gain to the NCAT 25Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Jalen Fowler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
99.9%
Jalen Fowler sacked by Tre Hornbuckle for a loss of 8 yards to the NCAT 17 Jalen Fowler fumbled, recovered by Duke Rocky Shelton II , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.9%
Chris Katrenick pass intercepted Joseph Stuckey return for 6 yds to the NCAT 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Kashon Baker run for 1 yd to the NCAT 19Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+6
100.0%
Kashon Baker run for 6 yds to the NCAT 25Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Jalen Fowler run for 2 yds to the NCAT 27Similar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
William Simpson run for 2 yds to the NCAT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Kashon Baker run for 5 yds to the NCAT 34Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jalen Fowler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Jalen Fowler pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Michael Rivers punt for 44 yds , Scott Bracey returns for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 3:12
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for 23 yds to the NCAT 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Jaylen Coleman run for no gain to the NCAT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:56
Quentin Harris pass complete to Eli Pancol for 39 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 11:20
Jah-Maine Martin 66 Yd Run (Noel Ruiz Kick)
-2.4
TD · Q2 3:10
Quentin Harris pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com