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ND

Notre Dame 35 at Louisville 17

LOU
2019 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2019 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:49 · Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Pregame prior−27.8Home team on offense−1.4Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:29: Tony Jones Jr. 11 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +3.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:17: Ian Book 11 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +7.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:06: Tommy Tremble 26 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +8.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:25: Blanton Creque 42 Yd Field Goal — LOU win probability +3.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:15: Jahmir Smith 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick) — ND win probability +5.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ND made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
  1. Q1 6:22ND 4th & 1 at ND 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q2 14:47LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:23ND 4th & 4 at LOU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    78.2%−0.6
    38% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:54LOU 4th & 7 at ND 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:09ND 4th & 1 at ND 24, tied
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:36LOU 4th & 15 at LOU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:49ND 4th & 5 at ND 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:39ND 4th & 1 at ND 43, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42LOU 4th & 17 at LOU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:37LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:44ND 4th & 4 at ND 44, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:25LOU 4th & 9 at ND 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−4.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:37LOU 4th & 12 at LOU 46, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:09ND 4th & 5 at LOU 41, up 18
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    98.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:00LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:39ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:27LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:08LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:29ND Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:17ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:06ND Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:15ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2190% → 89%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
10.3%
Ian Book run for 37 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
10.4%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+5
10.7%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
10.9%
Ian Book pass complete to Jafar Armstrong for 16 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
11.0%
Jafar Armstrong run for 5 yds to the Lvile 3Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.8%
Jahmir Smith 3 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 5:1211% → 14%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
10.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 14Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+18
11.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 18 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
11.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 13 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
11.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+11
11.6%
Jawon Pass run for 11 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
11.9%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
11.9%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+5
11.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Julian Okwara) to the NDame 40Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+13
12.0%
Jawon Pass run for 13 yds to the NDame 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
12.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 6 yds to the NDame 21Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+15
12.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 15 yds to the NDame 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
12.6%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 8Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.1%
Jawon Pass 8 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:5986% → 86%
Q1 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
13.6%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
13.7%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chase ClaypoolSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+9
13.9%
Ian Book run for 9 yds to the NDame 30Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
14.3%
Jay Bramblett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1414% → 18%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
14.2%
Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.2%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khalid Kareem) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+44
14.5%
Javian Hawkins run for 44 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
15.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 9 yds to the NDame 17Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
16.0%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+17
18.3%
Jawon Pass 17 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3982% → 84%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.7%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 8 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
17.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 10 yds to the NDame 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
17.9%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
18.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 15 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
18.0%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 5 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-8
18.2%
Ian Book sacked by Rodjay Burns for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+35
20.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 35 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
19.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
16.2%
Tony Jones Jr. 11 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:3518% → 17%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
17.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
17.8%
Jawon Pass run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
17.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Javian HawkinsSimilar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 28
-2
17.3%
Mason King punt for 52 yds , Chris Finke returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:2483% → 81%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
17.3%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Kyren WilliamsSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+12
17.5%
Jahmir Smith run for 12 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
17.5%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+11
17.6%
Ian Book pass complete to Javon McKinley for 11 yds to the NDame 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
17.4%
Ian Book sacked by Nick Okeke for a loss of 4 yards to the NDame 40Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+16
18.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 16 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
17.6%
Jahmir Smith run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+4
17.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 4 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 2
OPP 36
-2
18.2%
Tony Jones Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 10:23
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+2
19.5%
Ian Book pass complete to Chris Finke for 2 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2921% → 22%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
21.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+15
21.3%
Hassan Hall run for 15 yds to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
22.9%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 7
OPP 46
0
23.6%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Dez FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
23.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
22.0%
Mason King punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4579% → 78%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
20.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 9 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 1
OWN 24
0
20.4%
Ian Book run for no gain to the NDame 24 Ian Book fumbled, forced by Khane Pass, recovered by NDame Jahmir SmithSimilar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 1
OWN 24
0
20.7%
Jahmir Smith run for no gain to the NDame 24Similar
Q2 7:09
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+50
22.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOUISVILLE 36 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3323% → 24%
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
23.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
24.9%
Hawkins, Javian rush for no gain to the LOUISVILLE40, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 25
OWN 25
-2
23.9%
Jawon Pass sacked by Drew White for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 27
OWN 23
0
24.4%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Javian HawkinsSimilar
Q2 5:09
3RD & 27
OWN 23
+12
23.7%
Hassan Hall run for 12 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
23.8%
Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4778% → 75%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
22.4%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the NDame 30Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
22.8%
Jahmir Smith run for 2 yds to the NDame 32Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+2
23.7%
Ian Book run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
24.6%
Jay Bramblett punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:2926% → 26%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.4%
Hassan Hall run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.9%
Jawon Pass run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+6
26.2%
Jawon Pass run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26 Jawon Pass fumbled, forced by Alohi Gilman, recovered by NDame Alohi GilmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
21.1%
Ian Book sacked for loss of 2 yds to the Lvile 28 Ian Book fumbled, recovered by Etheridge at the Lvile 24. Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
27.9%
Jawon Pass run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 20 Jawon Pass fumbled, recovered by NDame Jack LambSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:4679% → 85%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
21.2%
Ian Book run for 12 yds to the Lvile 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
21.3%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
21.4%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Brock WrightSimilar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
22.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Liam Eichenberg) to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
15.0%
Ian Book 11 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:1718% → 17%
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
17.5%
Hassan Hall run for 12 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
17.4%
Hassan Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:2618% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
17.9%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
19.4%
Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+6
20.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the NDame 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
20.9%
Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the NDame 41Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+1
21.1%
Hassan Hall run for 1 yd to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+16
20.2%
Hassan Hall run for 16 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
21.7%
Jawon Pass run for 4 yds to the NDame 22 Jawon Pass fumbled, forced by Adetokunbo Ogundeji, recovered by NDame Daelin Hayes , return for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5583% → 83%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
17.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 12 yds to the NDame 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
16.6%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 6 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
15.9%
Ian Book run for 3 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
16.1%
Tony Jones Jr. run for no gain to the NDame 43Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
17.0%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:5719% → 17%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
18.6%
Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 22Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
18.5%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 12
OWN 22
-5
17.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (T.J. McCoy) to the Lvile 17Similar
Q3 8:51
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
17.7%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
17.3%
Mason King punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:3684% → 92%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
16.3%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 31 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
8.3%
Tommy Tremble 26 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:2910% → 10%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
10.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tobias Little for 9 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
10.6%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-9
10.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Lvile Hassan HallSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 19
OWN 28
0
9.9%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 19
OWN 28
-5
9.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Dez Fitzpatrick) to the Lvile 23Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 24
OWN 23
+4
9.6%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 20
OWN 27
0
9.6%
Mason King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Chris Finke at the NDame 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5391% → 92%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.7%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
8.8%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 13 yds to the NDame 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
8.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+4
8.0%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the NDame 44Similar
Q3 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
7.9%
Ian Book pass incomplete to Chris FinkeSimilar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
8.5%
Jay Bramblett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:199% → 13%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
9.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 10Similar
Q3 3:13
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+8
9.2%
Javian Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+14
9.1%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
9.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34 Javian Hawkins fumbled, recovered by Lvile Javian HawkinsSimilar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+3
9.1%
Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+37
9.4%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Marshon Ford for 37 yds to the NDame 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
10.9%
Tutu Atwell pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
10.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+2
10.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 13
OPP 29
+4
9.8%
Javian Hawkins run for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
13.0%
Blanton Creque 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1088% → 98%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
12.1%
Ian Book run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 12:51
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
11.7%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+10
12.1%
Ian Book pass complete to Tommy Tremble for 10 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
11.0%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 2 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+1
10.5%
Tony Jones Jr. run for 1 yd to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+10
9.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Lawrence Keys III for 10 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.2%
Ian Book pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
9.2%
Ian Book pass complete to Jahmir Smith for 6 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+4
8.7%
Ian Book run for 4 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+34
8.4%
Ian Book pass complete to Chase Claypool for 34 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.7%
Jahmir Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 1Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
2.3%
Jahmir Smith 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25DOWNS
14 plays · 23 yds · 4:384% → 2%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
3.5%
Jawon Pass sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+22
3.3%
Jawon Pass run for 22 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
3.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tyler Haycraft) to the Lvile 36Similar
Q4 6:46
1ST & 15
OWN 36
0
3.3%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Isaac MartinSimilar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+10
3.3%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 10 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+5
3.3%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NDame 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
3.1%
Jawon Pass run for 6 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
2.6%
Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-7
2.4%
Jawon Pass sacked by Daelin Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 44Similar
Q4 4:39
2ND & 17
OPP 44
0
2.2%
Jawon Pass pass incomplete to Tutu AtwellSimilar
Q4 4:22
3RD & 17
OPP 44
+10
2.2%
Jawon Pass run for 10 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
2.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Caleb Chandler) to the NDame 39Similar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 12
OWN 46
-15
2.0%
Jawon Pass sacked by Julian Okwara for a loss of 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE 46 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jawon Pass) to the Lvile 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:2899% → 99%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
1.4%
C'Bo Flemister run for 7 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
1.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for 1 yd to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-3
1.2%
C'Bo Flemister run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 1:09
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
0.9%
Jay Bramblett punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Tutu Atwell at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27END OF GAME
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:092% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
1.5%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Josh Johnson for 12 yds to the Lvile 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
1.7%
Jawon Pass pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
1.6%
Jawon Pass pass complete to Jawon Pass for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 16Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 15
OWN 16
+8
1.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+8
1.3%
Javian Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:06
Tommy Tremble 26 Yd pass from Ian Book (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-8
TD · Q2 0:17
Ian Book 11 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-7.4
TD · Q4 8:15
Jahmir Smith 1 Yd Run (Jonathan Doerer Kick)
-5.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com