Try the model
VT

Virginia Tech 28 at Boston College 35

BC
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:02 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:58: AJ Dillon run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +9.1 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:20: Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +8.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:09: Ryan Willis pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +12.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:53: David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +9.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:13: Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK) — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 7 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00BC 4th & 11 at BC 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.7%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:09VT 4th & 10 at VT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:54VT 4th & 1 at VT 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:34BC 4th & 17 at VT 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    74% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:40BC 4th & 1 at VT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    41.2%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:00VT 4th & 10 at VT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:59BC 4th & 6 at VT 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    44.2%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:09VT 4th & 7 at VT 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−1.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:31BC 4th & 6 at BC 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:56VT 4th & 3 at BC 47, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:45BC 4th & 11 at BC 12, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−2.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:41VT 4th & 1 at BC 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−3.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−4.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:42BC 4th & 14 at BC 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%−3.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:03BC 4th & 5 at BC 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−1.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:51BC 4th & 1 at VT 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−4.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:15VT 4th & 9 at VT 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−3.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:53VT 4th & 7 at BC 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:53VT 4th & 1 at BC 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−1.0
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−5.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:01BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:43VT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:29VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:58BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:20BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:08BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:09VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:53BC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:13VT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
37.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
37.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
37.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BC 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
37.0%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+7
37.0%
Grant Carlson punt for 48 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for 7 yds to the VTech 31 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
37.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton KeeneSimilar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
37.3%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the VTech 35Similar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
37.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 14:09
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+12
37.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 44 yds , Travis Levy returns for 12 yds to the BC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 3TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:1838% → 40%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+16
37.6%
Zay Flowers run for 16 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
37.8%
AJ Dillon run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 9
50
+13
37.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 13 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
37.8%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+33
39.5%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Zay Flowers for 33 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
39.2%
Tre Turner run for 7 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+2
39.1%
Jalen Holston run for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 11:54
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
39.2%
Jalen Holston run for no gain to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 11:54
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+8
39.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 50 yds , Travis Levy returns for 8 yds to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4940% → 42%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
40.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
40.4%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+56
40.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 56 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
40.9%
Dillon,A rush for 2 yards to the VT12 (Hollifield, D;Ashby, R), PENALTY BC illegal motion 5 yards to the VT19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-5
40.9%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+4
40.9%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 16
OPP 20
0
40.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 16
OPP 20
-1
40.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Ben Glines for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 7:34
4TH & 17
OPP 21
+38
42.3%
Aaron Boumerhi 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 2:5158% → 60%
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
42.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 10 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
42.2%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 7:34
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
42.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for no gain to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 7:34
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+9
42.5%
Ryan Willis run for 9 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
42.0%
Keshawn King run for 3 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+55
39.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 55 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 67 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+58
40.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Zay Flowers for 58 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
42.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+4
42.0%
AJ Dillon run for 4 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+2
41.6%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
41.1%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
41.0%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Silas Dzansi) to the VTech 11Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
41.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete, broken up by Tanner KarafaSimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+5
41.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the VTech 16Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
41.6%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+10
41.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 53 yds , Travis Levy returns for 10 yds to the BC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
42.7%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 29 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by BC Anthony BrownSimilar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 22
OWN 29
0
41.6%
Brown,A pass complete to Glines,B for 8 yards to the BC37, out-of-bounds, PENALTY BC illegal touching 0 yards to the BC29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 22
OWN 29
+27
41.1%
Anthony Brown pass complete to David Bailey for 27 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
43.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+2
43.2%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
43.0%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Ben GlinesSimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
42.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Hezekiah Grimsley at the VTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 3:3158% → 66%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+12
41.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 12 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+25
41.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 25 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
40.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 9 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
39.8%
Zion Debose run for 5 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
40.0%
Keshawn King run for 7 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
39.4%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Dalton Keene, broken up by John LamotSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+11
40.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
39.4%
Zion Debose run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 20Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+20
34.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 20 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2736% → 48%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Korab IdriziSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.1%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
35.6%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 12 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
37.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 25 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
39.0%
AJ Dillon run for 3 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 32
-5
39.0%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (Erik Larson) to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+11
37.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 11 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+7
38.2%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
39.0%
David Bailey run for 2 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+17
48.2%
AJ Dillon run for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.3%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.4%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
42.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 8 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
43.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Tate Haynes for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 17 Ryan Willis fumbled, recovered by BC Marcus Valdez , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4249% → 57%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
48.7%
AJ Dillon run for no gain to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
48.7%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Travis Levy, broken up by Caleb FarleySimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+17
57.0%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Kobay White for 17 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
54.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Keshawn King for 3 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
54.0%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-4
53.9%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 33Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
55.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:0057% → 56%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
57.0%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
57.2%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
57.0%
Anthony Brown run for 3 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
57.3%
David Bailey run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 13
OWN 30
+7
56.8%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 7 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
57.1%
Anthony Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
56.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 37 yds , Hezekiah Grimsley returns for no gain to the VTech 28 Hezekiah Grimsley fumbled, recovered by BC Nolan BorgersenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:1461% → 69%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Kobay White, broken up by Reggie FloydSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
68.9%
Anthony Brown run for 28 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17INT
13 plays · 58 yds · 1:3333% → 32%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
66.9%
Jalen Holston run for 3 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
66.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 3 yds to the VTech 31Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
66.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 4 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
66.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
50
+13
64.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 13 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
64.5%
Jalen Holston run for 10 yds to the BC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
65.9%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Deshawn McClease for 6 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+4
67.8%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
67.8%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
67.8%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted, touchback. Joseph Sparacio return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
73.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:0428% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
72.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
71.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 11 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
70.4%
Deshawn McClease run for 5 yds to the BC 49Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+2
69.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 2 yds to the BC 47Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
73.7%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tayvion RobinsonSimilar
Q3 12:56
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
74.3%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
77.2%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 10Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+2
77.1%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 11
OWN 12
0
76.5%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Ben GlinesSimilar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
75.5%
Grant Carlson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5925% → 24%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
74.8%
Keshawn King run for 9 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 1
OPP 33
-2
73.5%
Keshawn King run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+2
74.7%
Ryan Willis run for 2 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 11:41
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
75.2%
Ryan Willis run for 3 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
75.8%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Bryce Sebastian return for no gain to the BC 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
81.0%
Zay Flowers run for 2 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-6
80.9%
Anthony Brown sacked by Rayshard Ashby for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 16Similar
Q3 9:42
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
80.1%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Rayshard AshbySimilar
Q3 9:42
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
79.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 43 yds, downed at the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 59 yds · 5:2721% → 36%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
78.7%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 13
OWN 38
-8
80.0%
Ryan Willis sacked by Joey Luchetti for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 21
OWN 30
+24
80.5%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 24 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
77.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
77.7%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 45Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+12
78.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 12 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
76.7%
Keshawn King run for 4 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+8
76.3%
Keshawn King run for 8 yds to the BC 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
76.3%
Keshawn King run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+10
76.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 10 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
64.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
74.6%
Max Richardson run for 2 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+3
74.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jake Burt for 3 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
73.6%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to Chris GarrisonSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
72.9%
TEAM punt for 45 yds, fair catch by TEAM at the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25INT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:0929% → 27%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
70.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (Christian Darrisaw) to the VTech 17Similar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+13
71.2%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Emmanuel Belmar for 13 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+4
68.6%
Deshawn McClease run for 4 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
70.0%
Keshawn King run for 2 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q3 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+6
69.7%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Emmanuel Belmar for 6 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
71.5%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
71.1%
Deshawn McClease run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
73.1%
Ryan Willis pass intercepted Tanner Karafa return for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
84.0%
Zay Flowers run for 7 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-3
84.8%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+5
83.2%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
82.6%
Anthony Brown run for 2 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.8%
Kobay White pass intercepted Jermaine Waller return for no gain to the VTech 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
80.0%
Deshawn McClease run for 1 yd to the VTech 3Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
80.2%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
81.2%
Ryan Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+46
81.9%
Oscar Bradburn punt for 46 yds , Travis Levy returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 44 Travis Levy fumbled, recovered by BC Travis LevySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 28TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:3185% → 96%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
85.3%
Anthony Brown pass complete to AJ Dillon for 9 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+13
86.0%
AJ Dillon run for 13 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
86.4%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
86.6%
David Bailey run for 6 yds to the VTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
86.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+5
86.6%
David Bailey run for 5 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+5
85.5%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
86.6%
AJ Dillon run for 5 yds to the VTech 5Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.6%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.8%
David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29TD
21 plays · 83 yds · 5:406% → 17%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
94.5%
Ryan Willis run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 11Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 16
OWN 11
+9
94.6%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tayvion Robinson for 9 yds to the VTech 20Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+12
94.6%
Willis, R pass incomplete to Smith, K, PENALTY BC pass interference (Sebastian,B) 12 yards to the VT32, 1ST DOWN VT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
94.1%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
94.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+22
94.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 22 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Tre TurnerSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
93.9%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Deshawn McClease, broken up by Tanner KarafaSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.0%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Hezekiah Grimsley for 8 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 2
OPP 36
-5
94.1%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, false start (T.J. Jackson) to the BC 41Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+7
94.1%
Ryan Willis run for 7 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
93.4%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Tre Turner for 8 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 2
OPP 26
0
93.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to James Mitchell, broken up by John LamotSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
93.7%
Ryan Willis run for 4 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
93.1%
Ryan Willis pass incomplete to Deshawn McCleaseSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+7
93.5%
Deshawn McClease run for 7 yds to the BC 15Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+2
93.7%
Deshawn McClease run for 2 yds to the BC 13Similar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 1
OPP 13
+1
93.7%
Ryan Willis run for 1 yd to the BC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
93.1%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Dalton Keene for 1 yd to the BC 11Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+11
83.3%
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 30END OF GAME
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:1095% → 95%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
94.9%
AJ Dillon run for 2 yds to the BC 40Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-1
95.2%
AJ Dillon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 39Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+11
95.2%
AJ Dillon run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
50
-1
95.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 49Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-1
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 48Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-1
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:09
Ryan Willis pass complete to James Mitchell for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q4 2:13
Ryan Willis pass complete to Kaleb Smith for 11 yds for a TD, (Brian Johnson KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q4 7:53
David Bailey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com