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BOIS

Boise State 36 at Florida State 31

FSU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 31, 2019 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:50 · Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+8.0Home team on offense+15.3Score differential+5.7Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:34: Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +5.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:07: James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 58 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:50: Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +17.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:44: Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK) — BOIS win probability +22.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 7:27: Eric Sachse 30 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +12.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BOIS made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 12:28FSU 4th & 1 at BOIS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    67.8%−0.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49BOIS 4th & 8 at FSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:47BOIS 4th & 13 at FSU 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.0%
    77% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:14BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:51BOIS 4th & 14 at FSU 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−4.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:53FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 20, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00BOIS 4th & 9 at FSU 9, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−4.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:39FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 34, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−2.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:12BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 32, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:57FSU 4th & 9 at FSU 27, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46BOIS 4th & 21 at midfield, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:50FSU 4th & 11 at BOIS 47, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:53FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 16, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−7.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:08FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:27BOIS 4th & 13 at FSU 13, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−6.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    85% to make
    Punt
    31.1%−23.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:12FSU 4th & 16 at FSU 19, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:25BOIS 4th & 17 at BOIS 45, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:48FSU 4th & 13 at FSU 33, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.8%
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 12:28FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:42FSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:05FSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:34BOIS Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:07FSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:50BOIS Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:44BOIS Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 43 yds · 1:3427% → 28%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
72.6%
Robert Mahone run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
72.5%
John Hightower run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
72.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
72.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
72.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
72.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the FSU 32, Andrew Van Buren fumbled, forced by Hamsah Nasirildeen, recovered by FlaSt Janarius Robinson, return for 20 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:2773% → 73%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.5%
Cam Akers run for no gain to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
72.4%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
72.3%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+38
73.0%
Cam Akers run for 38 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 4:2027% → 28%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.9%
Robert Mahone run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
72.9%
Robert Mahone run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
72.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Hightower for 11 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
72.8%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
72.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 10:06
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
72.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
72.7%
Robert Mahone run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
72.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
72.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+11
72.5%
Robert Mahone run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
72.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
72.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 8
OPP 19
0
72.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 8
OPP 19
+36
72.0%
Eric Sachse 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
74.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 75 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:3126% → 25%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
John Hightower run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+36
74.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 36 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
73.3%
Chase Cord sacked by Leonard Warner III for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+14
73.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Hightower for 14 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
72.9%
Robert Mahone run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+3
72.9%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
73.0%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
73.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 8
OPP 14
-5
73.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
73.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+36
74.7%
Eric Sachse 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 2:3574% → 80%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
74.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+4
74.2%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+12
74.3%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 12 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
74.3%
Keyshawn Helton run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
75.0%
Cam Akers pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+13
75.0%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
75.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+12
75.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 12 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
75.3%
Cam Akers run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
75.3%
D.J. Matthews run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
79.6%
James Blackman pass complete to Gabe Nabers for 5 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:3924% → 24%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
76.1%
Mahone, Robert rush for 3 yards to the BOISEST23, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside 5 yards to the BOISEST25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:26
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+12
75.9%
Robert Mahone run for 12 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
76.0%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-9
75.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Joshua Kaindoh for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 30 BOISE ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+7
76.4%
Hank Bachmeier run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
76.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 52 yds, fair catch by D.J. Matthews at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8FG
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:0680% → 83%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
79.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 14 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.8%
James Blackman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
79.8%
Khalan Laborn run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
80.2%
James Blackman pass complete to Camren McDonald for 11 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+51
80.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Warren Thompson for 51 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
81.1%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 2Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
81.4%
James Blackman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 4 James Blackman fumbled, recovered by FlaSt James BlackmanSimilar
Q2 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-24
81.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the BoiSt 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt James BlackmanSimilar
Q2 10:53
4TH & 0
OPP 28
+46
83.3%
Ricky Aguayo 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9INT
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3316% → 17%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.7%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+30
83.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 15 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
83.1%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
83.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass intercepted Isaiah Bolden return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 24 yds · 1:0285% → 85%
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
85.2%
Cam Akers run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+31
85.4%
Cam Akers run for 31 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
85.1%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
85.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 7:42
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+16
84.9%
James Blackman sacked by Kekaula Kaniho and TEAM for a loss of 15 yards to the FlaSt 40 James Blackman fumbled, forced by Kekaula Kaniho, recovered by BoiSt David Moa , return for 0 yards , return for 16 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:5017% → 22%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
83.2%
George Holani run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
82.5%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
82.7%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+21
82.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 21 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
83.0%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 3Similar
Q2 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
83.2%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.9%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1479% → 87%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
79.4%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
86.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 58 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 1:1214% → 17%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+27
86.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Bates for 27 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
84.5%
Hank Bachmeier run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
84.2%
Robert Mahone run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
84.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
84.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 10
OPP 20
-4
85.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Jaleel McRae for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 14
OPP 24
+41
83.3%
Eric Sachse 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:3984% → 85%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.7%
James Blackman pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Warren Thompson for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
83.3%
James Blackman sacked by Sonatane Lui for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
84.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 39 yds, downed at the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15END OF HALF
12 plays · 50 yds · 1:4816% → 17%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
84.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
84.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Akilian Butler for 8 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+5
83.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
83.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
83.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Akilian Butler for 4 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+32
83.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 32 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
81.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
81.7%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 9Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
84.8%
Bachmeier, Hank pass complete to Butler, Akilian for 9 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY BOISEST illegal touching (Butler, Akilian) 0 yards to the FLORIDAST9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
82.6%
Eric Sachse 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:0784% → 83%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
83.8%
Blackman, James rush for 5 yards to the FLORIDAST30, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 10 yards to the FLORIDAST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:16
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+11
83.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Cam Akers for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
84.1%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
83.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Tre' McKitty for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
84.4%
Cam Akers run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-3
84.7%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
83.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 12:39
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
83.2%
Logan Tyler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0818% → 16%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
82.3%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
82.7%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
82.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
83.7%
Joel Velazquez punt for 42 yds, downed at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:5985% → 84%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
85.0%
Khalan Laborn run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+4
85.0%
James Blackman run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
84.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Ontaria WilsonSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & 9
OWN 27
-3
84.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 53 yds , Avery Williams returns for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:0616% → 14%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
83.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+5
84.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+18
84.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Akilian Butler for 18 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
83.5%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+18
83.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 18 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
82.8%
Akilian Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 42 Akilian Butler fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 13
OPP 42
0
83.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 13
OPP 42
-8
85.1%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Carlos Becker III for a loss of 8 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 21
50
0
86.3%
Joel Velazquez punt for 10 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:4688% → 86%
Q3 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
87.8%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for 14 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
87.8%
James Blackman pass incomplete to D.J. MatthewsSimilar
Q3 6:11
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-1
87.1%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q3 5:50
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
86.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:4114% → 16%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
86.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the BoiSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
85.5%
Robert Mahone run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
84.3%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Marvin Wilson for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 47 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, forced by Robert Cooper, recovered by FlaSt Robert Cooper , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0789% → 89%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
88.6%
Cam Akers run for 14 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
88.7%
Cam Akers run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 31 Cam Akers fumbled, forced by Riley Whimpey, recovered by BoiSt Kekoa NawahineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:3114% → 34%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+23
85.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Bates for 23 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
84.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Akilian Butler for 14 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
83.8%
Robert Mahone run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+14
83.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Akilian Butler for 14 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
83.6%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
83.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to George HolaniSimilar
Q3 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
65.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5173% → 71%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
73.3%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q3 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
73.0%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-9
71.7%
James Blackman sacked by Chase Hatada for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
70.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:0332% → 59%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
68.4%
George Holani run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
66.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+6
66.0%
George Holani run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
65.9%
George Holani run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+1
65.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to John Bates for 1 yd to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+7
66.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
64.2%
Robert Mahone run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
63.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+12
63.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 12 yds George Holani fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Garrett Collingham for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
63.3%
Robert Mahone run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q4 12:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.7%
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2053% → 50%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.6%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
52.1%
James Blackman pass complete to D.J. Matthews for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
49.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Tamorrion Terry for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 11:08
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
50.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:3255% → 72%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
45.5%
George Holani run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+24
43.1%
George Holani run for 24 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
40.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 18 yds to the FlaSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-10
38.4%
Mahone, Robert rush for loss of 5 yards to the FLORIDAST30, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Larson, Garrett) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 20
OPP 35
+27
39.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Robert Mahone for 27 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
37.4%
George Holani run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
37.2%
Bachmeier, Hank pass complete to Van Buren, Andrew for 5 yards to the FLORIDAST0, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Pistone, Matt) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+7
38.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 7 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
40.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
28.4%
Eric Sachse 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:5935% → 29%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
35.4%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
33.9%
James Blackman pass incomplete to Tamorrion TerrySimilar
Q4 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-7
31.9%
James Blackman sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q4 6:12
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
29.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 3:4775% → 85%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
24.6%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (John Molchon) to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 5:51
1ST & 15
OWN 32
-2
26.2%
George Holani run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 17
OWN 30
+1
25.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+21
22.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 21 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
16.9%
George Holani run for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 13
OWN 49
+3
16.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 10
OPP 48
-7
13.0%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Carlos Becker III for a loss of 7 yards to the BoiSt 45 Hank Bachmeier fumbled, recovered by BoiSt John Molchon , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:25
4TH & 17
OWN 45
+22
15.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 52 yds , D.J. Matthews returns for 22 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2223% → 13%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
22.8%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 11 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
23.1%
Cam Akers run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
21.5%
James Blackman pass complete to Keith Gavin for 2 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
19.5%
Cam Akers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-9
15.9%
Blackman, James pass complete to McKitty, Tre' for 8 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding 9 yards to the FLORIDAST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:48
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+9
13.2%
James Blackman run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 42 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:1095% → 95%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 14
OPP 46
-1
5.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-1
5.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:44
Robert Mahone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK)
-22.6
TD · Q3 2:50
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds for a TD, (Eric Sachse KICK)
-17.8
FG · Q4 7:27
Eric Sachse 30 yd FG GOOD
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com