Try the model
USU

Utah State 35 at Wake Forest 38

WAKE
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:06 · Dom Maggio punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKEFOREST 37 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jarrod Green) to the UthSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 134Pregame prior+5.7Home team on offense+3.4Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:25: Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 17 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +12.4 pts (now 52%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:42: Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 56 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +20.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +28.2 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:51: Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +28.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:08: Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK) — WAKE win probability +59.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:53USU 4th & 1 at WAKE 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−0.3
    85% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:40WAKE 4th & 10 at WAKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:27WAKE 4th & 3 at USU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    60.5%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11WAKE 4th & 1 at USU 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.1%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    54.6%−5.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:22USU 4th & 5 at USU 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:40USU 4th & 1 at USU 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:30WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 4 at USU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−1.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:34WAKE 4th & 1 at USU 39, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.2%−4.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:08USU 4th & 7 at USU 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.1%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:06WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:42WAKE 4th & 1 at USU 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    45.0%−4.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−16.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:51WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 29, down 4
    Close callPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:01USU 4th & 8 at USU 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.2%−2.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:22WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 40, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:20USU 4th & 14 at USU 23, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−7.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:18WAKE 4th & 5 at USU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−1.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−5.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26USU 4th & 4 at WAKE 48, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%−2.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:08WAKE 4th & 2 at USU 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−19.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−33.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:54WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:23USU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:11USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:27WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:25USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:08WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:42USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:49WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:51USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:08WAKE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−3.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0665% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.1%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
65.1%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+15
65.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 15 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
65.1%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
65.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 5 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+22
65.1%
Cade Carney run for 22 yds to the UthSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
65.1%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 22Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+22
66.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 22 yds for a TD UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3134% → 36%
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.9%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+35
65.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 35 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
65.6%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
65.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 10 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
65.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 4 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 11:54
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+7
65.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 7 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
65.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+7
63.9%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
64.7%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
64.7%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the WFrst 36 Jamie Newman fumbled, forced by David Woodward, recovered by UthSt Justus Te'i , return for 2 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
63.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 5 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
63.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+6
63.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
63.7%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the WFrst 22Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
63.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q1 8:53
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+9
63.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 9 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
Q1 8:53
4TH & 1
OPP 13
0
64.1%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:3364% → 64%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
64.3%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
64.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 3 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+10
63.9%
Newman, J sacked for loss of 7 yards to the WF11 (WOODWARD, David), fumble by Newman, J recovered by USU WOODWARD, David at WF11, WOODWARD, David for 11 yards to the WF0, clock 06:40, PENALTY USU holding (ADAMS, Terin) 10 yards to the WF28, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for no gain to the WFrst 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
64.3%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall Hinton, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
63.9%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
63.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6INT
7 plays · 48 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Gerold BrightSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
63.4%
Gerold Bright run for 8 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
63.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 5 yds to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+28
63.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 28 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
62.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 4 yds to the WFrst 7Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
62.8%
Jordan Love run for 3 yds to the WFrst 4Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
63.1%
Jordan Love pass intercepted, touchback. Trey Rucker return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7FG
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:1064% → 65%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
64.0%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
63.9%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+16
63.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 16 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
64.8%
Jamie Newman run for 4 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+26
65.0%
Cade Carney run for 26 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
65.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 20 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
65.5%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
65.5%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.0%
Jamie Newman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
65.2%
Nick Sciba 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 1:1635% → 40%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
65.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 6 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 0:27
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+59
65.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 59 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
63.0%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
63.2%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jaylen WarrenSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+27
59.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 27 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 0:0061% → 62%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
60.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 5 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+5
61.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 5 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
61.2%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the WFrst 44Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+14
60.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 14 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+19
62.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 19 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
63.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 6 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+5
63.0%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 5 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
63.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 5 yds to the UthSt 7Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
63.0%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+1
62.2%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 1 yd to the UthSt 3Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 1
OPP 3
0
61.5%
Jamie Newman run for no gain to the UthSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3641% → 40%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
59.1%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+1
59.2%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the UthSt 5Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 8
OWN 5
+3
59.2%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 5
OWN 8
+36
59.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the UthSt 49 UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:1361% → 68%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
60.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 13 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
61.7%
Cade Carney run for 11 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
61.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 5 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+4
61.7%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+2
60.6%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
61.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage Surratt, broken up by Andre GraysonSimilar
Q2 6:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
68.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 9 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:4735% → 35%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 6:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
64.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q2 6:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
64.7%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 5:40
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
66.0%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+9
66.2%
Jamie Newman run for 9 yds to the WFrst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
67.6%
Newman, J sacked for loss of 6 yards to the WF35 (LEILUA, Fua), PENALTY USU personal foul (LEILUA, Fua) 15 yards to the USU44, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
68.4%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 13
OPP 47
+2
67.2%
Jamie Newman run for 2 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 45
-6
66.5%
Jamie Newman sacked by David Woodward for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 49 Jamie Newman fumbled, recovered by WFrst Cade Carney , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 17
OWN 49
0
64.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 1:4235% → 52%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
64.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 25 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
62.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+19
62.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 19 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
60.4%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
60.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 5 yds to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
60.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for no gain to the WFrst 17Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+17
47.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 17 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
51.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
52.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
53.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+10
54.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 10 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+1
54.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 35 yds , Kendall Hinton returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 4:2654% → 70%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
54.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 17 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
57.4%
Jamie Newman sacked by Nick Heninger for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 12
50
-1
55.4%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+12
53.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 12 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q3 13:34
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+6
55.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Cade Carney for 6 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
59.2%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Kendall HintonSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
59.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 8 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+7
57.2%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Steven Claude for 7 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
59.2%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
59.2%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
57.2%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
59.2%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.2%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.7%
Jamie Newman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0035% → 33%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
65.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Savon Scarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
64.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan Nathan, broken up by Justin StrnadSimilar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
65.5%
Jordan Love sacked by Carlos Basham Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 9:08
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
67.4%
Aaron Dalton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
67.0%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 11
OWN 22
+4
66.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 4 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
65.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for no gain to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 26
+47
64.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WAKEFOREST 37 UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jarrod Green) to the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20TD
2 plays · 73 yds · 0:3335% → 56%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
64.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 17 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
44.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 56 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21DOWNS
16 plays · 74 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
48.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 9 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
50.2%
Jamie Newman run for 3 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
49.9%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
49.6%
Jamie Newman run for 1 yd to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+16
48.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 16 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
53.6%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 13 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
55.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 15 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-11
55.7%
Jamie Newman sacked by Christopher Unga for a loss of 11 yards to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 21
OPP 29
+19
53.3%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Scotty Washington for 19 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
53.3%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
55.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
55.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Brandon Chapman for 2 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.3%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the UthSt 1Similar
Q3 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.3%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
41.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+3
42.2%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q3 1:58
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+1
43.7%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Amari Henderson return for 1 yd to the UthSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23TD
1 play · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
71.9%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5833% → 67%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jaylen Warren, broken up by Luke MastersonSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
66.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 19 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-15
63.3%
LOVE, Jordan sideline pass incomplete to TERRELL, Carson, PENALTY USU pass interference (SCARVER, Savon) 15 yards to the USU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 25
OWN 29
+43
66.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 43 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
59.7%
Jordan Love pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 3 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+1
59.7%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the WFrst 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+20
61.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 20 yds to the WFrst 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0043% → 40%
Q4 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
42.9%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
43.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 5 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
-3
43.9%
Jamie Newman run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
40.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
37.1%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+23
37.5%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 23 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
34.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 1 yd to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
34.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 1 yd to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
35.8%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Carson Terrell, broken up by Luke MastersonSimilar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
38.8%
Aaron Dalton punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
41.0%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Brandon ChapmanSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
40.6%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+8
39.1%
Jamie Newman run for 8 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
41.7%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Brandon Chapman, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
41.4%
Christian Beal-Smith run for 9 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-3
44.3%
Christian Beal-Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
39.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds, downed at the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 64%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
32.3%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+10
32.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 10 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
31.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Taylor Compton for no gain to the UthSt 27Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
32.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-5
33.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Andy Koch) to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+1
34.2%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 23Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 14
OWN 23
0
35.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
38.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
40.5%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 7 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+13
40.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 13 yds to the UthSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Steven Claude, broken up by Cam LampkinSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
42.9%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Jack Freudenthal for 4 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+1
42.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
39.1%
Jamie Newman pass incomplete to Sage SurrattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 30PUNT
9 plays · 18 yds · 1:3977% → 85%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
22.6%
Jaylen Warren run for 7 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
20.9%
Jaylen Warren run for 5 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
20.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 2 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+4
14.0%
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
13.4%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the WFrst 48Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
15.1%
Aaron Dalton punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kendall Hinton at the WFrst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 31TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 1:1128% → 89%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+18
27.8%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 18 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+70
28.7%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Sage Surratt for 70 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
38.2%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 1:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.6%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
31.4%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 2Similar
Q4 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.1%
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 32INT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0020% → 33%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.7%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon Scarver, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
80.1%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Savon Scarver, broken up by Coby DavisSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+24
81.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Siaosi Mariner for 24 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
73.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Caleb Repp for 5 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
70.3%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
71.9%
LOVE, Jordan deep pass incomplete to REPP, Caleb (Greer, N), PENALTY WF targeting (Greer, N) 15 yards to the WF31, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
67.5%
Jordan Love pass intercepted Justin Strnad return for no gain to the WFrst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
93.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:08
Jamie Newman pass complete to Kendall Hinton for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+59.8
TD · Q3 0:49
Christian Beal-Smith run for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Sciba KICK)
+28.2
TD · Q4 13:51
Jaylen Warren run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-28.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com