2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Brady Schipper run for 3 yds to the Wisc 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 9:10: Jonathan Taylor run for 6 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:15: Jonathan Taylor run for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:31: Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- SACK · Q2 3:25: Dustin Crum sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 24 — KENT win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:23: Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 18 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 13:36KENT 4th & 8 at KENT 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 5:01KENT 4th & 15 at WIS 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.117% to convertField goal3.2%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q2 12:43KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 25, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.228% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q2 5:31WIS 4th & 1 at KENT 29, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.1%71% to convertField goal95.6%−0.558% to makePunt94.7%−1.4average punt
- Q2 2:37KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 24, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.6%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 12:21KENT 4th & 14 at KENT 21, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 6:00KENT 4th & 10 at WIS 35, down 41Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.130% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%45% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:35WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 48, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 2:06KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 15, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:10WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:15WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:31WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:23WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:20WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:01WIS Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:57WIS Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:192% → 2%
Q1 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
97.9%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD10 plays · 68 yds · 4:1898% → 98%
KENTDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 36 yds · 3:593% → 3%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
97.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 24Similar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
97.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 6 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 15
OPP 39
-5
97.2%
Dustin Crum sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4TD11 plays · 80 yds · 5:3597% → 97%
KENTDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:213% → 3%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 7 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-7
97.0%
Dustin Crum sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 25Similar
Q2 12:43
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD17 plays · 74 yds · 8:5997% → 99%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
97.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Nakia Watson for 6 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+6
97.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 6 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+6
96.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 6 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -1 yds · 0:482% → 2%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.3%
Dustin Crum sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 24Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-6
98.2%
Dustin Crum sacked by Chris Orr for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 24Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+8
98.2%
Derek Adams punt for 51 yds , Jack Dunn returns for 8 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8TD4 plays · 67 yds · 1:0599% → 100%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+33
98.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 33 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
98.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 9 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 18 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 24 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 2 yds to the KntSt 15Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+24
99.5%
Jo-El Shaw run for 9 yds to the KntSt 24 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Personal Foul (Collin Wilder) to the KntSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-7
99.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 7 yards to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 17
OWN 32
+5
99.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10TD3 plays · 60 yds · 0:26100% → 100%
KENTDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · -4 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q3 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Adam Dulka for 3 yds to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-2
99.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 21Similar
Q3 12:21
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds , Jack Dunn returns for no gain to the Wisc 30 Jack Dunn fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jack DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 13 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
99.8%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete to Pryor, Kendric, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (Hines, Elvis) 15 yards to the KENTST19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+8
99.8%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the KntSt 2 Nakia Watson fumbled, forced by Akeam Peters, recovered by Wisc Kendric Pryor for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13MISSED FG7 plays · 40 yds · 1:490% → 0%
WISDrive 14TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:53100% → 100%
KENTDrive 15FUMBLE12 plays · 40 yds · 2:400% → 0%
Q4 13:57
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
99.9%
Barrett, Woody pass incomplete to James, Raymond, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Burton, Donte) 11 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTST.Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 10
50
+7
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 7 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 4 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+14
99.9%
Woody Barrett sacked by David Pfaff for a loss of 15 yards to the Wisc 49 Woody Barrett fumbled, recovered by Wisc Leo Chenal , return for 0 yards , return for 14 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16FUMBLE3 plays · 10 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 5 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 5 yds Aron Cruickshank fumbled, forced by Mario Nunez, recovered by KntSt Mario NunezSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 17PUNT3 plays · 3 yds · 1:120% → 0%
WISDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 4:55100% → 100%
KENTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:040% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 20END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:31
Jonathan Taylor run for 4 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+2
TD · Q2 1:23
Jack Coan pass complete to Jonathan Taylor for 18 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 14:15
Jonathan Taylor run for 19 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
+0.7