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PUR

Purdue 31 at Nevada 34

NEV
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2019 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadPUR aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scorePUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Carson Strong punt for 42 yds, downed at the Prdue 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Pregame prior−7.8Home team on offense−23.1Score differential−10.6Garbage-time factor−7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:27: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 39 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +9.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:19: Elijah Sindelar pass complete to David Bell for 49 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +10.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:56: Toa Taua run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +15.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:52: Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK) — NEV win probability +39.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Brandon Talton 56 yd FG GOOD — NEV win probability +32.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 11 of 12PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 9:37NEV 4th & 8 at NEV 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11PUR 4th & 7 at NEV 39, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49PUR 4th & 1 at NEV 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.0%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    73.1%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:05PUR 4th & 15 at NEV 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NEV 4th & 9 at PUR 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:26NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:07PUR 4th & 7 at PUR 4, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:43NEV 4th & 7 at PUR 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    24.0%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:15NEV 4th & 3 at NEV 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:12PUR 4th & 1 at midfield, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:22PUR 4th & 6 at NEV 37, up 17
    Close callPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.8
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:25NEV 4th & 5 at NEV 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:19NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:21NEV 4th & 13 at PUR 17, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−6.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:49PUR 4th & 6 at PUR 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:51PUR 4th & 12 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:26NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.1%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:37PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:43NEV Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:15PUR Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:27PUR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:49NEV Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:19PUR Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:56NEV Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−1.5
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:52NEV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−5.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PURDrive 1TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 5:2378% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+18
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 18 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Milton Wright for 4 yds to the Nevad 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
22.0%
Rondale Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 5 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 5 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 6 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
22.0%
Zander Horvath run for 13 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
22.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 8 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+5
22.0%
Zander Horvath run for 5 yds to the Nevad 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
22.0%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Nevad 1Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
22.0%
Zander Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 2Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
22.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 2 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.3%
Kelton Moore run for 2 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
23.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for no gain to the Nevad 27Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+28
23.0%
Quinton Conaway punt for 43 yds , Rondale Moore returns for 28 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
22.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
22.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Brycen HopkinsSimilar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+3
23.0%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
23.2%
Danny Corollo punt for 38 yds, downed at the Nevad 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
23.6%
Kelton Moore run for 4 yds to the Nevad 5Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 5
0
23.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 6
OWN 5
-1
23.4%
Carson Strong sacked by George Karlaftis and Derrick Barnes for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 4Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 7
OWN 4
0
23.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 45 yds , Rondale Moore returns for no gain to the 50 yard line Rondale Moore fumbled, recovered by Prdue Rondale Moore , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 5FG
11 plays · 34 yds · 3:2977% → 76%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
50
-10
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 3 yards to the NEV47 (SEWELL, Gabe), PENALTY PURDUE holding (Viktor Beach) 10 yards to the PURDUE40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+1
23.6%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 19
OWN 41
-3
23.7%
Elijah Sindelar sacked by Dom Peterson for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 38 Elijah Sindelar fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 22
OWN 38
+21
24.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 21 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+31
23.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 31 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
23.2%
Rondale Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 11Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-4
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 15Similar
Q1 3:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
23.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Daniel BrownSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
23.6%
J.D. Dellinger 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 2:0523% → 23%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.9%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
23.0%
STEPHENS, Cam pass complete to COOKS, Elijah for 8 yards to the NEV36 (Dedrick Mackey), PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass (NELSON, Jake) 5 yards to the NEV23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
22.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+19
22.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 3 yds to the Nevad 26 for a 1ST down PURDUE Penalty, personal foul (George Karlaftis) to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
23.4%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds to the Nevad 49Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+6
23.7%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Prdue 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
24.1%
Toa Taua run for 4 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
24.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-3
24.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
23.2%
Carson Strong punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0076% → 77%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
24.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 9 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
23.5%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
23.7%
Zander Horvath run for 7 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+12
23.3%
Zander Horvath run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
50
0
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q2 13:06
2ND & 10
50
+11
23.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Milton Wright for 11 yds Milton Wright fumbled, forced by EJ Muhammad, recovered by Nevad EJ MuhammadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:4024% → 24%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
23.5%
Toa Taua run for 2 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-4
23.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 37Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+4
22.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 4 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+5
23.8%
CONAWAY, Q. punt 59 yards to the PURDUE0, touchback, PENALTY PURDUE illegal participation (Rondale Moore) 5 yards to the NEV46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
24.1%
Carson Strong punt for 53 yds, downed at the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
25.7%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+3
25.8%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 7Similar
Q2 9:07
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+1
26.1%
Elijah Sindelar run for 1 yd to the Prdue 8Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 3
OWN 8
-4
26.3%
PURDUE Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the Prdue 4Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+6
26.4%
Brooks Cormier punt for 55 yds , Romeo Doubs returns for 6 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:1925% → 33%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
24.8%
Toa Taua run for no gain to the Nevad 47Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-3
24.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+15
23.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 15 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
25.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
25.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
25.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+38
33.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Dominic Christian for 38 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2868% → 78%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
31.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 15 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
29.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to King DoerueSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
30.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 5 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+17
30.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 17 yds to the Nevad 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
21.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 38 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 7 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
24.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic Christian, broken up by Navon MosleySimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
23.8%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
23.6%
Quinton Conaway punt for 67 yds, downed at the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 2:0976% → 87%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
24.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 5 yds to the Prdue 6Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+10
23.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 10 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
23.2%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+2
22.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 2 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+21
23.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 21 yds to the Prdue 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
21.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete, broken up by Lawson HallSimilar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
21.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Milton Wright PURDUE Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+9
22.2%
Elijah Sindelar run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:12
4TH & 1
50
+11
22.0%
Zander Horvath run for 11 yds to the Nevad 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
12.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 39 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0021% → 18%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
20.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 7 yds to the Nevad 38Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
17.7%
Carson Strong run for 5 yds to the Nevad 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
14.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 12 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
15.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
14.8%
Toa Taua run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
15.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Dominic ChristianSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
14.9%
Carson Strong punt for 41 yds, downed at the Prdue 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16PUNT
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:1586% → 87%
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
13.6%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 6 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+3
13.6%
Zander Horvath run for 3 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-5
12.8%
PURDUE Penalty, false start (Grant Hermanns) to the Prdue 23Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+7
12.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 7 yds to the Prdue 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
12.5%
Zander Horvath run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 27Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+11
12.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Zander Horvath for 11 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+21
12.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 21 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
11.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Milton Wright for 6 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-2
11.3%
Zander Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 37Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
11.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Amad Anderson Jr.Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
12.6%
Danny Corollo punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.6%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
12.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 5 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
12.4%
Carson Strong pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 yds , Zander Horvath returns for no gain to the Prdue 36 Zander Horvath fumbled, recovered by Nevad Breylon GarciaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:2814% → 24%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
13.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 5 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 31
-5
14.4%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jake Nelson) to the Prdue 36Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+10
13.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 10 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
14.4%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Prdue 21Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+21
23.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 21 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3080% → 91%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
20.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Brycen Hopkins for 26 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
9.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to David Bell for 49 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
11.7%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 23Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-10
11.5%
STRONG, Carson pass complete to DOUBS, Romeo for 19 yards to the NEV42 (Milton Wright), PENALTY NEV holding (BEACH, Miles) 10 yards to the NEV13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+12
11.5%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 12 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Quinton Conaway punt for 62 yds , Rondale Moore returns for no gain to the Prdue 14 Rondale Moore fumbled, recovered by Nevad Lucas WeberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21FG
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0113% → 12%
Q3 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-10
13.3%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to DOUBS, Romeo, PENALTY NEV holding (FROST, Aaron) 10 yards to the PURDUE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:22
1ST & 20
OPP 24
0
13.1%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 20
OPP 24
+7
12.9%
Kelton Moore run for 7 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
12.5%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Elijah CooksSimilar
Q3 3:21
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
12.7%
Brandon Talton 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
0
11.9%
Quinton Conaway punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22INT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q3 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+1
10.6%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
10.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Amad Anderson Jr.Similar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
10.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Jared Sparks for 9 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 1
OWN 37
0
10.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jared SparksSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
10.2%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Zander Horvath for 1 yd to the Prdue 39Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
10.4%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Zander Horvath for 9 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
9.9%
Zander Horvath run for no gain to the Prdue 48Similar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
10.0%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Milton Wright, broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
10.3%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Daniel Brown return for no gain to the Nevad 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4112% → 12%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
12.2%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+5
11.9%
Toa Taua run for 5 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-1
12.2%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
11.7%
Carson Strong punt for 42 yds, downed at the Prdue 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
9.6%
Zander Horvath run for 2 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
9.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Amad Anderson Jr., broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+9
10.0%
Elijah Sindelar run for 9 yds to the Prdue 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
9.5%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
9.5%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Amad Anderson Jr., broken up by Berdale RobinsSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
9.7%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for no gain to the Prdue 27Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
10.0%
Brooks Cormier punt for 47 yds, downed at the Nevad 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 25TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:0710% → 27%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
10.3%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 21Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+4
10.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 4 yds to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+21
10.1%
Carson Strong pass complete to Ben Putman for 21 yds to the Nevad 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
11.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 6
50
+12
11.5%
Carson Strong run for 12 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
11.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
11.6%
Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-5
11.9%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Prdue 39Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+21
11.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 21 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
12.5%
STRONG, Carson rush for 9 yards to the PURDUE9 (Navon Mosley), PENALTY NEV holding (DAVIS, Gray) 10 yards to the PURDUE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+5
12.2%
Kelton Moore run for 5 yds to the Prdue 23Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+6
12.1%
Toa Taua run for 6 yds to the Prdue 17Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+10
11.9%
Carson Strong run for 10 yds to the Prdue 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
26.9%
Toa Taua run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
15.3%
Elijah Sindelar run for 5 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
15.2%
Elijah Sindelar run for 7 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
13.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 3 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+7
13.8%
Elijah Sindelar pass complete to Rondale Moore for 7 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
13.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Jared SparksSimilar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
13.2%
Elijah Sindelar run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & 12
50
0
13.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 12
50
0
16.8%
Brooks Cormier punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 27TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 2:4019% → 65%
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
18.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 12 yds to the Nevad 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 8 yds to the Nevad 33Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
21.4%
Toa Taua run for 8 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
22.2%
STRONG, Carson pass incomplete to TAUA, Toa, PENALTY NEV holding (FROST, Aaron) 10 yards to the NEV31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:32
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
18.8%
Carson Strong run for 4 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q4 3:32
2ND & 16
OWN 35
0
18.3%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Kaleb FossumSimilar
Q4 3:32
3RD & 16
OWN 35
+9
17.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 9 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 7
OWN 44
+23
14.4%
Carson Strong pass complete to Romeo Doubs for 23 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
23.0%
Carson Strong pass complete to Toa Taua for 13 yds to the Prdue 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
24.9%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo Doubs, broken up by Kenneth MajorSimilar
Q4 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
23.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Romeo DoubsSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+20
62.3%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
65.4%
NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Elijah Cooks) to the Prdue 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 28INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
46.9%
Elijah Sindelar pass incomplete to Rondale MooreSimilar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
48.1%
Elijah Sindelar pass intercepted Daniel Brown return for no gain to the Nevad 29 NEVADA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Nevad 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 29FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:3856% → 95%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
55.9%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 5 yds to the Nevad 39Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
58.0%
Carson Strong pass incomplete to Toa TauaSimilar
Q4 0:22
3RD & 5
OWN 39
+10
54.8%
Carson Strong pass complete to Kaleb Fossum for 10 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
58.4%
NEVADA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+17
54.6%
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 17 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+56
95.4%
Brandon Talton 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:52
Carson Strong pass complete to Elijah Cooks for 20 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+39.4
FG · Q4 0:00
Brandon Talton 56 yd FG GOOD
+32.3
TD · Q4 6:56
Toa Taua run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brandon Talton KICK)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com