Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 10 at Penn State 17

PSU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Beaver Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir Mack
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialTime remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:08: Vincent Davis 3 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick) — PITT win probability +9.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:07: Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:07 — PITT win probability +4.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:01: Jordan Stout 57 Yd Field Goal — PSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 75%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:50: Noah Cain 13 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:09: Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:09 — PITT win probability +6.2 pts (now 15%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:49PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05PSU 4th & 12 at PITT 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    85.2%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:33PITT 4th & 7 at PSU 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:29PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:49PSU 4th & 11 at PITT 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    84.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:02PITT 4th & 4 at PSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    15.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    15.7%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:34PITT 4th & 7 at PSU 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:21PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:46PSU 4th & 1 at PITT 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−1.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:01PSU 4th & 16 at PITT 39, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%−0.7
    36% to make
    Punt
    69.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:15PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−3.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:51PSU 4th & 8 at PITT 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:23PITT 4th & 2 at PSU 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:43PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 35, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:05PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.9%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:54PITT 4th & 1 at PSU 1, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.5%−10.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−19.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:56PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:25PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PITT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 4:31PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:08PITT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:50PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5412% → 12%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+3
87.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 13:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
87.6%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 46 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 3:1987% → 86%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
87.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 16 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
87.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jaylen Twyman and Elias Reynolds for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+4
87.2%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+13
87.1%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-13
86.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Phil Campbell III for a loss of 13 yards to the PnSt 45 Sean Clifford fumbled, recovered by PnSt Michal Menet , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 23
OWN 45
+11
86.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Justin Shorter for 11 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 12
OPP 44
0
86.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0714% → 15%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-3
86.3%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 13
OWN 10
+2
86.2%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+48
85.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 48 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
85.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
85.3%
A.J. Davis run for no gain to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+8
85.0%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 37 Kenny Pickett fumbled, recovered by Pitt Kenny Pickett Kenny Pickett run for 8 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
85.2%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 1:4985% → 87%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
85.3%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 3Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 9
OWN 3
0
85.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Journey BrownSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+85
84.7%
Journey Brown run for 85 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
85.7%
Clifford, Sean pass pass intercepted by Ford, Paris at the PITTSBURGH3, Ford, Paris return 52 yards to the PENNST45, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Bright, Cam) 8 yards to the PITTSBURGH4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PENNST.Similar
Q1 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
85.7%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.4%
Devyn Ford 1 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4114% → 14%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
86.5%
V'Lique Carter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
86.5%
V'Lique Carter run for 1 yd to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+10
86.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 10 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 2:29
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
86.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 62 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2786% → 86%
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+53
86.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 53 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
87.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
86.9%
Ricky Slade run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
86.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 36 yds, downed at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7FG
18 plays · 85 yds · 8:5714% → 18%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
86.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 1 yd to the Pitt 9Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
86.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 3 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+9
86.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
86.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Will Gragg for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 20Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+16
86.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
85.6%
A.J. Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+15
85.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 15 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
84.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
84.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+4
84.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+4
85.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
84.4%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+9
83.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 9 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
83.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 11 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
83.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 3 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
83.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
84.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 7Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
82.1%
Alex Kessman 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0383% → 81%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
82.4%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
81.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 9
OWN 25
0
81.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 53 yds, downed at the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:0318% → 31%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
82.2%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
82.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+10
82.4%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Ffrench, Maurice, PENALTY PENNST holding (Reid, John) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
81.4%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+11
80.4%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 11 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
79.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Tre Tipton for 17 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+27
78.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Dontavius Butler-Jenkins for 27 yds to the PnSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
78.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.4%
Vincent Davis 3 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10FG
15 plays · 48 yds · 1:5873% → 75%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
73.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+2
72.9%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+40
72.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 40 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
75.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
75.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Mac HippenhammerSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+9
73.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 9 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+3
74.4%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Justin ShorterSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
76.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Ricky Slade for 2 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-8
74.0%
Sean Clifford sacked by Jaylen Twyman for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 16
OPP 39
+57
75.3%
Jordan Stout 57 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
73.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:3176% → 75%
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
76.2%
Journey Brown run for 6 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+6
76.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 6 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
76.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
76.1%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 13:01
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
74.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Dan ChisenaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:4628% → 27%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
72.0%
A.J. Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+1
72.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 1 yd to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+15
73.3%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete to Ffrench, Maurice, PENALTY PENNST pass interference 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
71.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 2 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
71.6%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
72.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 52 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:2673% → 88%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
73.3%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+8
73.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 8 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
73.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+13
73.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 13 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
74.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+13
73.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
75.6%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+7
75.6%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
76.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
76.0%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+8
74.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Sullivan-Brown for 8 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
77.2%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Pitt 13Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
88.4%
Noah Cain 13 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:1217% → 15%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.3%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 5:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
81.7%
A.J. Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
82.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 3 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-5
82.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Jan Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 12
OWN 34
-2
84.2%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Cam Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 14
OWN 32
0
84.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0186% → 88%
Q3 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
86.2%
Journey Brown run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+16
87.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Journey Brown for 16 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
88.1%
Ricky Slade run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-1
88.9%
Ricky Slade run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 8
OPP 49
0
87.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 38 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for no gain to the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 4:0215% → 15%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
84.6%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 11Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-1
84.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 10
+23
85.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 23 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
83.7%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-5
85.6%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+16
86.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 16 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
84.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Tre TiptonSimilar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
84.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 5 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+3
83.7%
Kenny Pickett run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 2
OPP 48
+5
84.7%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 38 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:2489% → 89%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.2%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
89.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 9 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
89.8%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+6
89.8%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+1
89.6%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 8:43
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+31
89.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Maurice Ffrench at the PENNST 19 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Pitt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19MISSED FG
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2315% → 12%
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for no gain to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+9
85.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for 9 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
85.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+36
89.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Nakia Griffin-Stewart for 36 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
85.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Maurice Ffrench for 1 yd Maurice Ffrench fumbled, recovered by Pitt Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 20
-10
85.9%
Pickett, Kenny pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding 10 yards to the PENNST30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+29
87.9%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 29 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.0%
Kenny Pickett run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 4:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
88.1%
Alex Kessman 19 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3993% → 95%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.7%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+18
94.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Justin Shorter for 18 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
94.8%
Journey Brown run for 5 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
95.4%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
95.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+8
95.2%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 yds , Maurice Ffrench returns for 8 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
12 plays · 58 yds · 1:398% → 14%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
92.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 21 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to A.J. Davis for no gain to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-7
91.5%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 17
OWN 30
+5
93.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 5 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 12
OWN 35
+28
93.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 28 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
89.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
90.3%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Maurice FfrenchSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
91.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 11 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
86.1%
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete to Taysir MackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+13.9
TD · Q3 5:50
Noah Cain 13 Yd Run (Jake Pinegar Kick)
+11.2
TD · Q2 2:08
Vincent Davis 3 Yd Run (Alex Kessman Kick)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com