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BUF

Buffalo 13 at Penn State 45

PSU
2019 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2019 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: Matt Myers pass complete to Julien Bourassa for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:58: Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD John Reid return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:54: Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:59: Alex McNulty 25 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +2.3 pts (now 9%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:12: Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 8 at PSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.2%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32PSU 4th & 3 at PSU 20, tied
    Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:55BUF 4th & 9 at PSU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:55PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:42BUF 4th & 8 at PSU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:42PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:58BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 49, up 4
    Close callPunted · 91.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:58BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:59BUF 4th & 8 at PSU 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:46BUF 4th & 13 at BUF 22, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:56PSU 4th & 2 at BUF 28, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    96.0%−0.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    94.1%−2.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:56BUF 4th & 10 at PSU 49, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:58PSU 4th & 9 at BUF 13, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:58BUF 4th & 15 at PSU 44, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:26PSU 4th & 18 at PSU 2, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:58BUF 4th & 2 at PSU 25, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:03BUF 4th & 1 at PSU 35, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:50PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:14BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:58PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:54PSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:12PSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:56PSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:03PSU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
97.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
97.7%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
97.7%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
97.7%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+1
97.7%
Matt Myers run for 1 yd to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
97.7%
Evan Finegan punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
97.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 12Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 12
-1
97.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 11Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 12
OWN 11
+9
97.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Cam Brown for 9 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 3
OWN 20
0
97.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.1%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
97.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+1
97.1%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 37 Kevin Marks fumbled, forced by Cam Brown, recovered by PnSt Cam BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:3097% → 97%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
97.0%
Journey Brown run for 9 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+28
97.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:553% → 3%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by John ReidSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+42
97.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 42 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
96.9%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 34Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
96.9%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-5
97.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+4
97.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 4 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
96.7%
Alex McNulty 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+3
96.8%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
96.8%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
96.8%
Ricky Slade run for 1 yd to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+2
96.8%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-1
96.8%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:55
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
96.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
21 plays · 69 yds · 8:344% → 7%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
96.3%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+10
96.3%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
96.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
96.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
96.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
96.2%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Dylan McDuffieSimilar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
96.3%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+2
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+4
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
95.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 37
-10
95.5%
PATTERSON, Jare rush for 4 yards to the PSU33 (Mustipher, PJ), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the PSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 47
+19
95.7%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 19 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
95.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
95.3%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Joey Banks, broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
95.3%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 14
-5
95.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+4
95.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
93.5%
Alex McNulty 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
93.8%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 13
OWN 31
-5
93.7%
Clifford, Sean pass complete to Hamler, KJ for loss of 1 yard to the PSU30 (HILL, Tyrone), PENALTY PSU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the PSU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+1
93.7%
Jayson Oweh run for 1 yd to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 17
OWN 27
0
93.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ Hamler PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 17
OWN 27
0
93.4%
Blake Gillikin punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
92.6%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+7
93.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 7 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
92.7%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 6
OPP 49
-5
93.1%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 7:58
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
93.4%
Evan Finegan punt for 39 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
92.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 18 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
93.0%
Journey Brown run for 10 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
93.4%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+4
93.4%
Journey Brown run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
93.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
92.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 4:298% → 18%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
92.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+10
92.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Joey Banks for 10 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
92.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+29
92.3%
Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 29 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
91.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Carlton Todd for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-1
91.2%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+40
91.5%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 40 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.9%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the PnSt 6Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
82.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Julien Bourassa for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
85.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 40 yds · 0:0086% → 88%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
85.9%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+17
85.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 17 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
87.4%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Dotson, Jahan, PENALTY UB pass interference (RUSSELL, Devon) 15 yards to the UB33, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
87.9%
Ricky Slade run for 6 yds to the Buff 27 Ricky Slade fumbled, forced by Joey Banks, recovered by Buff Aapri WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:0116% → 10%
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
83.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q3 13:59
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+2
83.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+36
89.6%
Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD John Reid return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
89.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to LeMaro Smith Jr., broken up by Tariq Castro-FieldsSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
89.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+22
90.3%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 yds , KJ Hamler returns for 22 yds to the Buff 49 BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Evan Finegan) to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 16TD
1 play · 23 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
94.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:556% → 9%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.9%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
93.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
93.6%
Matt Myers run for no gain to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
93.7%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+28
94.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Carlton Todd for 28 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+29
93.2%
Kevin Marks run for 29 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
92.7%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
92.7%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 8Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.1%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
90.8%
Alex McNulty 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:4392% → 96%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
92.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 5 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+58
92.9%
Sean Clifford run for 58 yds to the Buff 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:265% → 4%
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.5%
Matt Myers pass complete to Joey Banks for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-8
95.2%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
96.0%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by John ReidSimilar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
96.1%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:3597% → 99%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
97.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 19 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
97.2%
Journey Brown run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+7
97.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 7 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+28
99.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 28 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
98.8%
MYERS, Matt pass incomplete to SMITH, LeMaro, PENALTY PSU pass interference (Castro-Fields) 15 yards to the UB40, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.7%
Matt Myers pass complete to LeMaro Smith Jr. for 5 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+2
98.7%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
98.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
98.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
98.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
98.7%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
98.8%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+45
99.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KJ Hamler for 45 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
99.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Taylor Riggins and James Patterson for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+8
99.3%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Hamler, KJ, QB hurry by PATTERSON, Jame, PENALTY UB pass interference (GROSS, Cory) 8 yards to the UB14, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Cam Brown, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.3%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+32
99.7%
Jake Pinegar 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
99.5%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.5%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+12
99.5%
Matt Myers pass complete to Joey Banks for 12 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
99.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 7 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
99.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
99.4%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
99.4%
Matt Myers sacked by Ellis Brooks and Yetur Gross-Matos for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 19
OPP 48
+4
99.4%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 15
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Marlyn JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:58
4TH & 15
OPP 44
0
99.4%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 34 yds, fair catch by KJ Hamler at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KJ HamlerSimilar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 10
-2
99.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Joey Banks for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 8Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 12
OWN 8
-6
99.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 18
OWN 2
+11
99.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 42 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 11 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
99.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 1 yd to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-4
99.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+11
99.7%
Matt Myers pass complete to Aapri Washington for 11 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 2
OPP 25
-1
99.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:51100% → 100%
Q4 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Journey Brown run for 2 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+16
99.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 16 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
100.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 56 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
Q4 3:03
1ST & GOAL
50
-5
99.9%
PENN ST Penalty, OF (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
100.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
100.0%
Dylan McDuffie run for 20 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
100.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 4 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+2
100.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+3
100.0%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 3:03
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Marlyn Johnson, broken up by Keaton EllisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:14
Matt Myers pass complete to Julien Bourassa for 6 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-8.4
TD · Q3 12:58
Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD John Reid return for 36 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q3 11:54
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 23 yds for a TD, (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com