2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · High Point Solutions Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreOSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:30 · Adam Korsak punt for 51 yds, downed at the OhSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:18: Isaih Pacheco run for 26 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK) — RUTG win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:54: Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:03: Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 24 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 13:33: Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 9OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 8:28RUTG 4th & 4 at OSU 47, down 14Close callPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:31RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 37, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 12:15RUTG 4th & 6 at OSU 46, down 21Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.9%40% to convertField goal0.8%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:05OSU 4th & 10 at OSU 17, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%average punt
- Q2 4:15OSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 1, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.0%59% to convertField goal98.8%−0.294% to makePunt98.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 1:34RUTG 4th & 15 at RUTG 9, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q2 0:30RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 12:10RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 20, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 11:27OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 34, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 6:33RUTG 4th & 8 at RUTG 14, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 4:31OSU 4th & 10 at RUTG 34, up 42Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.130% to convertField goal99.6%47% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:47OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 33, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 12:48RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 34, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 6:00RUTG 4th & 10 at OSU 38, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
- Q1 12:59OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 11:24OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:00OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:18RUTG Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:03OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:33OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:33OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:00RUTG Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:19OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:09RUTG Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:300% → 0%
OSUDrive 2TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
0.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3FUMBLE3 plays · 8 yds · 0:320% → 0%
OSUDrive 4TD3 plays · 33 yds · 0:47100% → 100%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
0.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 2
OPP 25
+14
0.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 14 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
0.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 11 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 2:520% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD8 plays · 91 yds · 2:19100% → 100%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+58
0.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 58 yds to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7FUMBLE8 plays · 12 yds · 3:200% → 1%
Q1 4:36
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
0.5%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Bo Melton for 9 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
0.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 30 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for no gain to the OhSt 33 Garrett Wilson fumbled, forced by Lawrence Stevens, recovered by Rutgr Lawrence StevensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8TD3 plays · 33 yds · 0:411% → 1%
OSUDrive 9TD6 plays · 65 yds · 1:0599% → 99%
Q1 0:25
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+11
0.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 11 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
0.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:251% → 1%
OSUDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0099% → 99%
Q2 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 9
+8
0.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 8 yds to the OhSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -23 yds · 2:141% → 1%
OSUDrive 13DOWNS7 plays · 47 yds · 3:1399% → 99%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
0.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:361% → 1%
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
1.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 3 yds to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-8
1.1%
Johnny Langan sacked by Davon Hamilton for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 15
OWN 9
0
1.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15TD3 plays · 50 yds · 0:1599% → 99%
RUTGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 0:201% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD6 plays · 82 yds · 1:0899% → 100%
Q3 14:19
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+23
0.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Binjimen Victor for 8 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+42
0.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 42 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q3 12:10
4TH & 13
OWN 20
0
0.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:41100% → 100%
Q3 11:27
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
0.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Aaron Young at the Rutgr 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21INT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:410% → 0%
OSUDrive 22TD6 plays · 25 yds · 1:59100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q3 6:33
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
0.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25TD8 plays · 83 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q3 3:52
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+19
0.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
0.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 6 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+45
0.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Bo Melton for 45 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
RUTGDrive 27PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aaron Young for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-1
0.1%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Paul Woods for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28TD12 plays · 72 yds · 4:11100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+13
0.2%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 13 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+10
0.1%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+32
0.1%
Chris Chugunov pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 32 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 29PUNT7 plays · 42 yds · 1:550% → 0%
OSUDrive 30FUMBLE6 plays · 30 yds · 2:26100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+11
0.1%
Gunnar Hoak pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 11 yds to the OhSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+21
0.1%
Gunnar Hoak sacked by Tim Barrow for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 20 Gunnar Hoak fumbled, recovered by Rutgr , return for 21 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 31TD6 plays · 20 yds · 2:090% → 0%
Q4 1:58
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+14
0.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Danny Vanatsky) to the OhSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 13:33
Justin Fields pass complete to Luke Farrell for 14 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-0.3
TD · Q1 1:18
Isaih Pacheco run for 26 yds for a TD (Justin Davidovicz KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 14:54
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 35 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-0.2