2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreWIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:12 · Anthony Lotti punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:43: Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 27 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:08: Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 26 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +10.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 12:08: Zach Hintze kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — OSU win probability +3.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:34: Justin Fields run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:28: J.K. Dobbins run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 12:53WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, tiedClose callPunted · 17.1% before the snapGo for it17.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 10:56OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%average punt
- Q1 7:33WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 43, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.9%average punt
- Q1 3:54OSU 4th & 5 at WIS 48, tiedClose callPunted · 80.1% before the snapGo for it80.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:12WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.4%average punt
- Q2 14:08OSU 4th & 14 at OSU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snapGo for it77.2%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q2 11:27WIS 4th & 24 at WIS 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it21.1%−1.67% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.7%average punt
- Q2 6:52OSU 4th & 15 at WIS 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snapGo for it73.6%−0.917% to convertField goalTheir call74.5%51% to makePunt73.8%−0.8average punt
- Q2 5:00WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 42, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt22.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 2:37WIS 4th & 14 at WIS 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.6% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.918% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.2%average punt
- Q3 13:36OSU 4th & 18 at OSU 17, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snapGo for it81.2%−2.612% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.9%average punt
- Q3 8:15WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 30, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it14.1%−0.441% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.5%average punt
- Q3 1:00WIS 4th & 8 at OSU 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%35% to convertField goal4.9%−0.340% to makePunt4.7%−0.5average punt
- Q4 5:34WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 33, down 31Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q2 0:43OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:08WIS Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.3%97% to makeGo for two25.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:34OSU Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.0%97% to makeGo for two84.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:28OSU Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:40OSU Touchdown, up 23 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two98.9%45% to convert
- Q4 7:29OSU Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWISDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0219% → 19%
OSUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -8 yds · 1:4881% → 80%
WISDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 24 yds · 3:1720% → 21%
OSUDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 39 yds · 3:2879% → 79%
Q1 3:54
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
78.6%
Drue Chrisman punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 2:3322% → 23%
OSUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 1:5778% → 76%
WISDrive 7PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 2:4124% → 24%
Q2 13:19
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+13
75.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 13 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 16
OWN 39
-8
75.4%
Jack Coan sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 31Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
76.1%
Anthony Lotti punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Demario McCall at the OhSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8FG14 plays · 41 yds · 4:3077% → 75%
Q2 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+20
75.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 20 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
77.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the Wisc 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
77.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 5 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+9
77.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 9 yds to the Wisc 27 for a 1ST down WISCONSIN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Zack Baun) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
78.0%
Justin Fields sacked by Zack Baun for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 32Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 15
OPP 32
-10
77.0%
Chugunov, Chris pass incomplete, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Munford, Thayer) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN42, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 4:0025% → 24%
Q2 3:23
2ND & 9
OWN 45
-5
73.6%
Jack Coan sacked by Davon Hamilton for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10TD9 plays · 85 yds · 1:4475% → 83%
Q2 1:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
74.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
76.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to K.J. Hill for 11 yds to the Wisc 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 23
-4
77.4%
Justin Fields sacked by Noah Burks for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 13
OPP 27
+27
83.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 27 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11END OF HALF3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3117% → 17%
OSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1984% → 82%
WISDrive 13TD3 plays · 30 yds · 1:1819% → 30%
Q3 12:08
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+26
70.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 26 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 14TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3074% → 86%
WISDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0616% → 15%
OSUDrive 16TD4 plays · 53 yds · 1:3986% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17FUMBLE12 plays · 25 yds · 5:157% → 6%
Q3 1:00
4TH & 8
OPP 37
-8
94.1%
Jack Coan sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 45 Jack Coan fumbled, forced by Chase Young, recovered by OhSt Pete Werner , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0896% → 99%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
95.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to J.K. Dobbins for 21 yds to the Wisc 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 46 yds · 1:392% → 2%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
98.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Danny Davis III for 8 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+35
98.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Quintez Cephus for 35 yds to the OhSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+31
98.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Chase Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 45 Jack Coan fumbled, forced by Chase Young, recovered by OhSt Pete Werner , return for 31 yds to the Wisc 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20TD9 plays · 45 yds · 4:0199% → 100%
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+15
99.5%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Wilson, Garrett, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Baun, Zack) 15 yards to the WISCONSIN9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 4 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:490% → 0%
OSUDrive 22END OF GAME9 plays · 46 yds · 5:17100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:08
Jack Coan pass complete to A.J. Taylor for 26 yds for a TD, (Collin Larsh KICK)
-10.7
TD · Q3 9:34
Justin Fields run for 10 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q3 6:28
J.K. Dobbins run for 9 yds for a TD, (Blake Haubeil KICK)
+7.8